When will be the next realignment election?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Now I think 2020.

-No chance. 2032 or 2036. Count on it.

I consider the last "realigning election" to have been 2000 (or maybe 1996 or 1992).

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

What I was taught in political science classes was that the last realigning election was 1932 and that there will likely never be another one, largely because the advent of public opinion polling allows parties to gradually move, rather than the sudden re-divides of 1824, 1860, or 1932.

-1932 was not a constituency realignment (FDR's constituency wasn't much different from Wilson's), but an ideological realignment, and, indeed, it was the last such one in American history. The age of Reagan only began the trend of the dying of the liberal Republicans. Trump could bring about an ideological realignment, but I'm skeptical.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

The Court will shift blue (Atlas Red) on its own accord under this scenario. The justices know that in that scenario that their legitimacy derives from the public believing in them. It's why the Court went pro-New Deal. They knew that without public support they had no standing to get their rulings enforced.

There's a very important reason Roe wasn't overturned directly and gay marriage made legal. The Court looked at public opinion and made up the legal rationales after.  Kennedy, in particular, is famous for this as is Roberts.

-This is why I'm such a fan of Scalia and Thomas.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

2016 was a setup for a realignment in 2020 or 2024. It brought the Reagan alignment trends to or near their final conclusion, and we should see new and unexpected trends in the near future.

-Too soon.