There will be plenty of Kerry counties in Appalachia and the fringe south that will go McCain. The trend of PA, TN, KY, MO, and AR to the Republicans relative to the nation is indicative of this.
In 2004, if Kerry were up 7% on Bush, he'd be comfortably ahead in Missouri, and possibly ahead in Tennessee as well. Kentucky and Arkansas would both be races, too. Instead, Missou is a dead heat and the rest of the fringe south is out of reach.
Actually... there weren't enough Kerry counties in the fringe south to produce many flippers. Still, I'd look at:
Magoffin, KY
Logan and Fayette, WV
Bradley, Lincoln, Monroe, Hempstead, and Randolf, AR
Clay and Van Buren, TN
Don't know the demographics in any of these (except the WV counties which are like 95% white). From this lot there should be at least one or two flippers. These are all low-population-density counties in areas trending Republican that only went marginally for Kerry.
Maggofin is one I think might be likely. Kerry only won it by 0.12% and it was Obama's worst county in the U.S. during the primary.
