-2015 was what Kalwejt said. I paid reasonably close attention to the 2012 and 2008 elections, but knew full well Obama would win both, so I didn't bother with predicting states. I consider prediction accuracy to be very important in how much attention to pay to a poster. I considered the fundamentals of this election to be such that the popular vote would be very close, certainly closer than in 2012, and I consistently predicted Trump would win Florida throughout the cycle, but did not see the rust belt sweep coming, and overestimated Trump's chances in New Hampshire. I predicted a Trump win all the way until Trump's polling failed to recover substantially from the second debate, after which I concluded Trump would probably lose, but still get over 250 electoral votes.
I regularly look through posters' archives to get a sense of them.
As for election predictions, there is current discussion at
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256465.0
Poll
