IN-SEN: Who wins the Republican primary?

[Hoosier_Nick]

My final prediction is Braun 37%, Rokita 33%, Messer 30%. I think Messer has done better lately and Braun has dropped a bit. But now I'm back to saying that Messer may win, though I still think he is in third. He's been on TV a lot more than the other two in my experience lately.

[Hoosier_Nick]

I’d give a slight edge to Braun. Braun vs. Donnelly is Tossup, Rokita vs. Donnelly Likely D and Messer vs. Donnelly Tilt D.

Agreed on all of this

[Hoosier_Nick]

Sticking with 37 Braun, 33 Rokita, 30 Messer

[Hoosier_Nick]

If this is a discussing thread, so far the very early numbers look good for Braun. Messer's numbers are a bit inflated because half of the reporting precincts are in his former house district.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Yep... Braun leading in every single county outside of Messer's district. Even some in Rokita's. It's early, but signs point towards a Braun win.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Besides for a few counties, Braun's numbers look really, really good.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Besides for a few counties, Braun's numbers look really, really good.

And those counties are either in one of his opponents's districts, or are only reporting the early vote and he's only behind by a small margin.

No, Braun's numbers in Messer's district still look really good relative to what he would've needed to win. Sure, he's not winning there, but he never needed to win the 6th to win statewide.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Besides for a few counties, Braun's numbers look really, really good.

And those counties are either in one of his opponents's districts, or are only reporting the early vote and he's only behind by a small margin.

No, Braun's numbers in Messer's district still look really good relative to what he would've needed to win. Sure, he's not winning there, but he never needed to win the 6th to win statewide.

We don't have much of Rokita's district, but I think Braun is actually up there, even as Rokita leads some random outlying counties?

Yeah, for sure.

[Hoosier_Nick]

It's hard to say for sure but it's possible that Messer and Rokita split the mouth-foaming GOP primary vote, allowing Braun to win.

Finally I predict something right on this forum! I'm actually surprised at how accurate I am too right down to saying that Messer and Rokita would split their faction's vote. They almost got the exact same percentage!

This is a bad take. All three's ads were really Trump-y, but honestly with Messer's less so. Braun's were all about career politicians, draining the swamp, the wall, trade deals, etc.