here's some interesting data that might help
- county names are colored by how it generally aligns in presidential elections
- first section compares total votes cast in each party's primary
- second section compares total primary votes cast for Murphy (MPH) vs Guadagno (GDN)
- third section shows 2016 election results
county
essex
bergen
middlesex
hudson
monmouth
morris
ocean
camden
union
burlington
passaic
somerset
mercer
atlantic
gloucester
hunterdon
sussex
warren
cape may
cumberland
salem
new jersey | DEM
90
68
79
92
57
49
39
80
81
64
61
57
81
61
69
41
34
38
39
63
59
67 | GOP
10
32
21
8
43
51
61
20
19
36
39
43
19
39
31
59
66
62
61
37
41
33 | MGN
-80
-36
-57
-85
-14
+2
+23
-60
-62
-27
-21
-15
-62
-22
-37
+18
+33
+25
+21
-25
-18
-35 | |
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| | MPH
95
64
81
94
50
49
28
80
85
68
59
67
83
58
76
43
30
33
32
56
60
68 | GDN
5
36
19
6
50
51
72
20
15
32
41
33
17
42
24
57
70
67
68
44
40
32 | MGN
-89
-27
-61
-88
-1
+1
+44
-60
-69
-36
-17
-34
-67
-16
-52
+15
+41
+33
+37
-13
-19
-36 | |
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| | D16
76
54
58
73
42
45
31
63
66
54
59
53
66
51
47
40
32
34
38
50
40
55 | R16
20
41
37
22
52
49
64
31
31
40
37
41
29
44
47
53
62
59
57
44
54
41 | MGN
-56
-13
-21
-51
+9
+4
+33
-32
-36
-15
-22
-13
-37
-7
+1
+14
+30
+25
+20
-6
+15
-14 |
incidentally, the overall margin of dem vs gop primary votes (-35%) is virtually identical to the margin of murphy vs. guadagno primary votes (-36%) so you could compare the two margins by county and roughly surmise which counties murphy and guadagno will have especially strong support from in the general election. if murphy's margin over guadagno in a county was greater than the general dem margin, then you could surmise that he'll perform better than the average. and if it's smaller, then you could guess he'll perform worse. (same thing for guadagno) (caveat this isn't an exact apples-to-apples comparison and the primary doesn't necessarily indicate the much larger general election vote, since primary turnout was so abysmal)
