MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Technocracy Timmy]

Gianforte's hitting bodyslamming his targets to by ~7, but it's early.

[Technocracy Timmy]

easy GF win, hopefully cause no one knew about his "problems" before.

Bodyslamming is a state sponsored sport in Montana. Similar to Iowa hawkeye wrestling.

[Technocracy Timmy]

TD, Cordray isn't winning Montana in 2024.

[Technocracy Timmy]

RIP Rob "socialist with a cowboy hat" Quist.

All hail Grabbin' Greggy.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Will Trump talk trash on Twitter about this victory? Or will even he know better?

Yes.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Back in the day Barry lost Montana by about 2%. It's interesting how its now the voters that are the problem and not the party!

In 2008, the Democrats were still the party of 3rd way Clintonism. SJWs and hard left "progressives" sh**t the can for the Democrats.

They won because Bush was garbage and the financial crisis was perfectly timed. They could've nominated a dead cat in 2008 and won.

[Technocracy Timmy]

TD, it looks like the short term trends will make 2020 have just as strong of a rural GOP vs. urban Democratic divide as 2016 right?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Honestly, what on earth led people here to think the Dems could win this? This thread has been utterly facepalm worthy on a daily basis.

Trump in office plus slamgate.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Quist won election day vote in yellowstone by 7%

Source?

some unverified twitter account named sammy snickers.

Prob baloney

Marty coming in hot with the great sources.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

Interior plains rural voters are quite different than the ones in the rust belt. The former have been reliably republican for decades.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters. 

uh I was agreeing with you that the DCCC is not to blame?

why can't anyone on this forum read?

Americans don't read.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Apparently, all the precincts in Liberty county are reporting, and Wicks got 16.6% there! Any reason why he'd do so well there specifically?

Libertarian candidate = Liberty county.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Yeah, Beet is a chicken little. But he is right about this, D's need to kick Bernie to curb. His message just doesn't translate to any electoral success.

They need to find a way to synthesize the Sanders and Obama messages together. Throwing out both wings of the Party isn't good strategy.

And the hardcore triangulating third way types of the 90's have been fading since 2008 and aren't coming back.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

[Technocracy Timmy]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

You know, this is a R+11 district, and the only district in the country more Republican than R+5 with a Democrat has one who endorsed Bernie in the primary?

But what happened to the "most popular politician in America" and his legendary appeal to WWC? I'll concede that Montana is not the best place to test that theory, but it looks like his popularity among that demographic doesn't translate into votes for candidates of his mold.

Aren't the interior plains a far more libertarian rather than populist part of the country? Or is that assessment wrong I know Montana is slightly more populist than its next door neighbors but overall I'm not sure if it would qualify as a populist state.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

Stay classy Montana.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Unfortunately, as I feared, this election will merely tear Democrats apart rather than unite them toward a common goal. Establishmentarians will (rightly*) blame Quist's bernicratic stances, Berniecrats will blame the DCCC, Tom Perez, whoever. Yes, Bernie's movement will probably play quite well in the Rust Belt and in already-strong-left areas, but not everywhere. I think the Berniecratic sweet spot are Obama-Trump areas, not traditional Republican strongholds like Montana. The movement has such a great energy, and it would be unwise of the establishment Democrats to ignore or squash it. Support each other! I'm certain some moderate state Senator would have been able to keep the margin tight, or even if Quist didn't go full Bernie. Just look at Ossoff - he appealed to GA-06's Republicans beyond mere anti-trumpness.


*Rightly attribute some of the blame

Agreed.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I guess I can't explain it any better after all.

I thought you explained it well.

[Technocracy Timmy]

You guys elected a N_g__ president.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The FDR coalition didn't really end until 1980. Even Eisenhower and Nixon by and large governed like New Deal Democrats. Reagan set the stage for a completely different outlook on government and he was boosted by Tip O'Neill and the Democrats who helped Reagan get most of his agenda through during the 80's.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The FDR coalition didn't really end until 1980. Even Eisenhower and Nixon by and large governed like New Deal Democrats. Reagan set the stage for a completely different outlook on government

Of course. But this coalition was never as large and as influential as in 1933-36, when it could pass almost (i stress this word) any neccessary legislation. In 1937-38 difficulties began to emerge...

True. The biggest impediment to FDR's New Deal from 33-36' was the Supreme Court if I remember correctly.