WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin (user search)
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  WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin (search mode)
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Author Topic: WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin  (Read 142631 times)
Lord Admirale
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« on: May 08, 2017, 09:59:17 PM »

Manchin works very well with Trump, plus West Virginia is an odd state as it votes solidly Republican in presidential elections, yet keeps electing Democrats as Governor/Senator. Capito is the first Republican Senator since the New Deal, but 2014 was a huge Republican year.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2017, 05:07:11 PM »

Honestly, this is the stupidest idea in the 2018 Senate election. Why do the Justice Dems, Berniecrats, and others like them, think that Paula Jean Swearengin can outprimary Joe Manchin (very difficult) and win the general (Shiva Ayyadurai defeating Elizabeth Warren is more likely)? For one, West Virginia is one of the most conservative states in the country. Hillary Clinton got about 26% of the popular vote in the most recent presidential election, not to mention their Democratic governor acts like a Republican.

So, I guess this is where I get so baffled, but if Joe Manchin is outprimaried, why does the far-left want this so badly? Running an SJW in a far-right state is a great way to give the GOP another seat. Why not run someone like her in California? At least there she'd have a decent chance at winning.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2017, 07:13:20 PM »

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Only socially. Economically, it's one of the least conservative states, being a New Deal Democrat stronghold. However, WV does have the coal factor, which makes it special.
True, but that's historically speaking. The GOP has gotten increasingly more comfortable with coal miners, and combined with "we're gonna put a lot of coal miners out of business," West Virginia is becoming a lost cause for the Democrats.
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So Swearengin is an SJW, huh? Are you also implying that Justice Dems are SJWs, since they're the ones running Swearengin?
Yes.
This is honestly hilarious. First people say that Berniecrats are "brocialists" or "sexist Bernie Bros", the candidate of the young straight white male Redditor. Then people say that they're SJWs. I mean, at least be consistent in your attacks.

I've always considered Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, etc. to be SJWs. So I've been pretty consistent.
Just to be clear, I don't think Swearengin can beat Manchin in a primary, at least at this stage.

I made a Senate hit-list that Justice Dems should follow. This senate class has a lot of Third Way Dems, and I think if they played their cards right, they could significantly alter the course of the Democratic Party. List is in priority:
1. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) - insanely corrupt and quite unpopular, even though NJ is a solid Clinton state, I think many Clinton voters will vote for a strong Berniecrat over Menendez in a primary.
Nope, New Jersey still has suburban values. Berniecrats are virtually non-existent here.
2. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) - A New Democrat centrist who opposed the public option, in a state that is notoriously liberal and went strongly for Sanders. "But the WA primary" - eh, not really sufficient evidence, considering that it had absolutely zero weight whatsoever.
Reasonable target.
3. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) - One of the Queens of neoliberalism. This one is quite a bit tougher, since CA is so large, but there's a lot of grassroots energy down in CA, so maybe it could happen.
Reasonable target.
4. Tom Carper (D-DE) - Served on the DLC. Delaware is a small, solidly blue state, but it has a history of electing moderates. Easily the toughest one.
Same situation as New Jersey. Also I could see Joe Biden coming out to support Carper.
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Lord Admirale
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Posts: 3,879
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Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -0.70

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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2017, 02:36:19 PM »

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.

Fun fact: Joe Manchin lost the Democratic primary for the 1996 WV Governors race to a member of the green party, coming in 2nd place despite outspending 3 to 1

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=7224
>1996
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