The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings (user search)
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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 204229 times)
useful idiot
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« on: July 29, 2010, 03:57:59 AM »

Actually, if Palin wants to make more money quicker, then the best thing for her to do would be to run for President. That way, regardless of whether she wins or loses (and she will probably lose the Presidency, but might win the nomination), her fame and publicity would increase and she would thus be able to sell much more of her books.

I don't think that's right.  There's a certain stigma associate with being a losing presidential candidate, especially if you lose really spectacularly.  Look at what happened with Giuliani.  His failed presidential run hurt his brand and damaged his lucrative consulting business.  As long as Palin doesn't run for prez, she'll continue to be viewed as a leading voice in the party, who speaks for a large segment of the base.  If she runs and disappoints, and loses the nomination, then it would demonstrate that she doesn't speak for as many people in the party as was previously thought, and her brand would be hurt.

This is why Gingrich has teased a possible presidential run for 15 years but never runs.  If he's a potential future candidate, then more people will listen to him.  Whereas if he runs and loses spectacularly, he'd be ignored.  The only reason he might finally run in 2012 is because he's getting so old that he can't plausibly keep playing this game any longer.


Palin is a unique case, though. A lot of previously hidden dirt on Giuliani came up while he was campaigning. Thus, people's opinions changed because they found out bad stuff about him that they didn't know before. In regards to Palin, most of the dirt on her already came out, so I seriously doubt significant dirt about her would come out in the future. Also, Giuliani always had a much shakier chance at the nomination than Palin because Giuliani was pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control.

That reminds me of one of the primary debates where Fred Thompson just went down the row and pointed out the flaws in the major candidates. He said "Rudy Giuliani supports partial birth abortion", and the collective gasps of horror in the auditorium were louder than a 747.

The amount of stuff Republicans don't know is scary. This is why Gingrich seems ok on paper, but once the massive amount of dirt on him becomes known to the GOP primary voter, he won't have a snowball's chance in hell.
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