Kasich would have lost.
Kasich would not have won over the key white voters in MI, WI, and PA that Trump won over.
Kasich also came off as a phony. His informality seemed fake, contrived. He'd have done well, but he would not have won over the folks he needed to win over to win it all.
Even if all that is true, he would have still been running against Hillary Clinton. He might have lost PA & MI, but he would have nailed down the Red States more securely and still would have won both the PV and the EV at the end of the day.
