German Elections & Politics

[Former President tack50]

Minority governments don't work very well,

Do you have any empirical evidence for that? In what way do they not work very well exactly?

The examples of Sweden, Denmark, or even Spain - where minority governments are the norm and not the exception -  seem to refute that statment.

I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

To be fair, don't parties in Sweden and Denmark come with "pre packaged" alliances?

As for Spain, I wouldn't exactly call it stable as of now. Before 2015 you would have had a point, but not now.

[Former President tack50]

Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.

Where does it end? No-one will contemplate minority or pre-election voting blocs so German politics hangs in the balance that the social democrats are left propping up CDU governments forever more? F**k that.

Yeah, I agree. On hindsight, I think that SPD and CDU both made a huge mistake in the 2013 election. There, either red-red-green or CDU-Greens should have been the government coalition.

Personally, I think the best option for Germany is probably a minority Merkel government. That could be propped up though ties with FDP and AfD on some issues, FDP-Greens on others and even SPD on certain occasions. However Germany (and many other countries) seem to be afraid of minority government.

Though IMO as long as passing a no-confidence vote is made quite hard (requiring an alternative candidate or a supermajority) it's not necesarily more unstable than a majority one. Worst case scenario, you get a snap election or a "do nothing parliament"

[Former President tack50]

I wonder how likely is it that we see in Germany an SPD implosion equivalent to the one we had here

[Former President tack50]

Would a CSU-AfD coalition be viable considering that CSU is more conservative than CDU?

[Former President tack50]

Maybe Schulz is a CDU plant to kill the party for good or something?

But I agree, if there's another grand coalition: RIP SPD. I wouldn't be surprised if it came in 3rd, 4th, 5th, or even 6th! (Though I don't think they will drop out of the Bundestag)

And SPD is lucky that the German further left isn't unifed. Hypothetically Linke+Greens would have 18.1%, not too far from SPD.

[Former President tack50]

As of now I'm beginning to wonder if Germany 2018 is going to be like Spain 2016. At least in both cases you had the centre left party (SPD/PSOE) being pressured by everyone to accept a coalition with the main centre right party (CDU/PP) with an unpopular leader. And any other alternatives were very hard (Jamaica or the 5 party deal for the 2017 budget in Spain) or involved parties viewed as untochable even with a 10 feet pole (AfD/Catalan nationalists)

Then again there are a ton of differences.

Spain has a minority government and those aren't rare at all. Minority governments are almost nonexistant in Germany. So SPD will have a harder time selling another grand coalition.

Martin Schulz seems like he is happy with the grand coalition. Pedro Sánchez was not happy with that, to the point where he was ousted as party leader and resigned his seat in Congress to avoid voting for it, or against his party.

AfD and the Catalan parties/Bildu, while both toxic to most others, they are toxic for very different reasons

IMO in this scenario the best winning move for SPD is not to play. Just tell Merkel no and tell her to either get a minority government (offer to pass the next 2 budgets in exchange if necessary, but ideally not), Jamaica, try forming a government (though an SPD government is almost impossible) or just tell the president to call for a new election.

[Former President tack50]

The socialist workers' song folklore at the end was just embarrassing and humiliating. 😡

What did they sing? The Internationale? Because that seems extremely common among socialdemocratic parties all around Europe.

[Former President tack50]

RIP SPD. A shame that one of Europe's oldest parties will go out like this Hope the SPD base rejects the coalition but at this point I can't expect anything.

Press F to pay respects.

[Former President tack50]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?

[Former President tack50]

^

Sure, but still, Linke would never do a deal with AfD or CDU right?

If AfD+Linke has a majority and AfD+CDU has one as well (ie not even R2G would save you) then that state is ed.

[Former President tack50]

RIP SPD. Press F to pay respects. Sad to see Europe's oldest social-democratic party go out like this

Honestly, even if they wanted to put "country over party", was it so hard to force Merkel to lead a minority government? They could easily reach a deal where SPD promises to pass the next 3 budgets and a few important laws, while staying out of the government and having autonomy.

[Former President tack50]

Also, apparently independence is polling at 32% in Bavaria. If that is actually even remotely true, Seehofer and Markus Söder should start pushing for independence, or at the very least Bavarian nationalism.

Seriously, for reference Basque secessionism regularly polls around 30% and even Catalan secessionists aren't much higher at 45-50%.

And yet the Bavarian secessionists poll at 2%! How is that possible?

Then again I guess what if polls are not even remotely accurate, as many German states seem to be at 15-20% for independence.

If that were true, Germany would be a failed state, a larger version of Belgium or at the very least should have like 3-4 nationalist parties represented.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170717/one-in-three-bavarians-want-independence-from-germany-poll-shows-bavaria

[Former President tack50]

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)
G
Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

NazBol coalition, here we come!

You may laugh, but the end of the Weimar Republic came when there was a "negative majority" (ie commies+Hitler had a majority so no one could form a government without either of them).

If AfD+Linke gets a majority and a left wing SPD+Linke+Greens deal is also impossible (as seems likely) then government formation will be a sh**tshow at best and at worst won't happen and there will be a caretaker government forever.

Either that or CDU finally bites the bullet and does a deal with AfD. And honestly they should to that sooner rather than later, otherwise the chancellor (or regional president) might be from AfD instead of CDU.

[Former President tack50]

In the unlikely case that the FDP falls bellow the threshold and CSU+FW doesn't get a majority, which would be the likeliest coalition? CSU+Greens? CSU+SPD? Or the unholy CSU+AfD?

[Former President tack50]

Honesly I feel that if you want a 2 party system nowadays, you must switch to FPTP.

The era of SPD-CDU 2 party system in Germany is over. Both PS and UMP in France are dead or on life support (particularly PS). PSOE-PP barely manage to get 55% of the vote nowadays. In Italy both FI and PD have fallen a lot.

If Merkel wants to secure a future for CDU and SPD, she should switch to FPTP. Or better yet, switch to a 2 round system like France's legislatives (which would make it even easier for centrist parties to keep winning).

[Former President tack50]

Does she have a chance of getting above the 5% threshold in any state elections? (or alternatively get enough direct mandates, but I guess that's even harder than 5%+)

Wagenknecht's proposal sounds really interesting to me.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%

In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

There would be no coalition agreement and new elections be called. I just don't see it. The Left or AfD may tolerate a CDU minority government that quickly fails as soon as a budget has to be passed, again leading to new elections.

Btw, you even don't need all of them (SPD, Greens, FDP) out of the legislature, it gets complicated if the AfD and the Left have a majority. It almost happend in Magdeburg in 2016.

I'm now wondering, are there any town halls or any other kind of local government in Germany where there's already a "negative majority"? (ie AfD+Linke over 50%) And what has happened in those cases?

I guess there must be some random village in former East Germany with a town hall like that.

[Former President tack50]

Well, hypothetically a Germany with FPTP (298 seats) would have had a massive CDU/CSU majority and everyone else basically irrelevant:

CDU/CSU: 231
SPD: 59
Linke: 5
AfD: 3
Greens: 1
FDP: 0

Then again it might not be a bad idea at all to switch Germany to FPTP. Or better yet, to a 2 round system like France.

Looking back at previous results, 2005 would have been a nailbiter, with CDU/CSU at exactly 150/298 seats. Another interesting result is that technically in 1994 SPD wins the popular vote but gets less seats than CDU (of course the joint CDU/CSU get more votes than SPD).

1980 would have been another nailbiter (SPD 127, Union 121). Not only that but the Union actually wins the popular vote! Then again 1976 would have seen a Union victory instead of Chancellor Schmidt. In 1969 again the Union wins the popular vote but SPD wins more seats (SPD 127, Union 121 again).

The only hung parliament would have been the very first (1949), though even then the parties that actually formed the government (Union+FDP+DP) do add up to a majority (you could even get rid of DP)

[Former President tack50]

France uses a form of FPTP and it hasn't prevented a proliferation of small parties winning seats...

Sure, but it has made it so moderate parties have a much easier time winning seats. Just look at the legislatives. Both FN and FI were above PS in the popular vote. However by the end of the election FN got 8 seats and FI 10 seats, compared to PS' 45 seats.

If Germany copied France both AfD and Linke would become fringe parties with a handful of seats, while SPD and CDU/CSU would cement themselves as the only ones with a chance. I guess the Greens might barely survive thanks to votes in hip urban centres while FDP would probably die because of its vote being too spread out.

If Germany wants to return to stability, copying France might be an ok idea. Plus, at least in the short term it would ensure CDU/CSU domination.

[Former President tack50]

2025 German election: SPD drops out of parliament after falling below 5%, Merkel reelected with support from the Greens and the FDP, AfD still an untouchable party.

[Former President tack50]

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

Honestly I feel that Germany should cap the Bundestag at 598 seats even if that won't lead to perfect proportionality.

An slightly unproportional Bundestag is a lesser evil compared to one that is too large to be useful.

Either that or simply repeal MMP and move to standard party list PR.

[Former President tack50]

I had to have a very stiff drink earlier when I saw the numbers

If these were the results of  a hypothetical election, which is more likely: Jamaica or Kenya coalition?

Wouldn't a "Germany" (Black-Red-Yellow).coalition be more viable?

[Former President tack50]

Come to think about it, how is the Bayernpartei doing? Why did they do so well in 2013? And will they do at least that well this time (2%+) even if they don't have a chance to enter parliament?

[Former President tack50]

Maybe if someone quite conservative wins the leadership election they'll try to remove Merkel as chancellor as well and try the unholy CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD coalition?