How will these states be identified in 2032?

[Young Moderate Republican]

This only applies if the trends established in 2016 continue. That is, the GOP casts aside staunch Reaganism in order to appeal to even more white voters while the Dems continue to offset this loss with their growing coalition of minorities.

-Arizona: Tilt D
-Colorado: Likely D
-New Mexico: Safe D
-Virginia: Likely D
-Florida: Tilt D/Tossup
-Alaska: Likely R
-Texas: Tilt R/Tossup
-South Carolina: Lean R
-Georgia: Tilt D/Tossup
-Utah: Safe R
-Montana: Safe R
-Ohio: Likely R
-Iowa: Safe R
-North Carolina: Tilt D/Tossup
-Indiana: Safe R
-Minnesota: Lean R
-Wisconsin: Lean R
-Michigan: Tilt R/Tossup
-Oregon: Lean  D
-New Hampshire: Lean R
-Nevada: Likely D
-Pennsylvania: Lean R
-Connecticut: Pure Tossup
-Rhode Island: Pure Tossup
-Maine: Lean R

Again, I base this on the share of minority voters (particularly hispanics) and the GOP continuing Trump's trend away from Reaganism and a heavy evangelical influence. I think a more secular and less anti government GOP  begins regaining ground in the Northeast and Midwest that were lost in the southern strategy while the Dems counter with gains in the south and southwest as the minority share of the population continues to grow. This might lead to the GOP being competitive in heavily white states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Maine while Dems become competitive in states like Texas, Georgia and Arizona. It could mean that for the first time since the 1980's, most of the electoral map becomes competitive again. It's all speculation at this point, of course.

[Young Moderate Republican]

-Connecticut - Tossup

Why would Connecticut be a tossup? Trump lost it by more than Bush did.

Bush had connections to CT. I think he was born in new haven. And I doubt it'll be a toss up either given the high black population in the Hartford area and the rich city types in Fairfield county. Best republicans can hope for are the house seats in district 2 and 5

Ah, you mean our historic base in the state and the easiest voters to win back??

If it were a true reverse southern strategy scenario, it wouldn't be unthinkable. Much more likely than MA or VT.