What Democrat will run in Arizona in 2018?

[Pollster]

A Ward primary upset is not out of the realm of possibility - she took almost 40% of the GOP primary in 2016 and held McCain to just barely above 50%, and McCain is much more entrenched and nationally well-known than Flake, who barely won his first term and underperformed Romney by 4 points.

If Ward remains Flake's only competitor and manages to turn out (and ideally build upon) her 2016 vote, it could very well be a photo finish.

Sinema is a smart political operator who I assume is waiting for the most opportune moment to enter the race. I have no doubt that she is in frequent communication with the DSCC and is using the Dem's thin bench in the state as leverage to secure strong financial support when she does eventually enter.

[Pollster]

I know it's not that big of a deal in her district but, would a bisexual atheist really be able to win statewide in Arizona?

In a Clinton midterm, this would allow the GOP nominee to make religious freedom an issue that sticks. In a Trump midterm, this will hold much less resonance but would probably boost turnout among the Mormon voters who rejected Trump.

[Pollster]

Disregard Ward at your own peril - she has a clear base that could be enough to win the primary if turnout is low enough.

[Pollster]

I am surprised by the lack of buzz around Ruben Gallego a Latino Iraq War vet seems like a good fit for rapidly diversifying Arizona.

Gallego will be viable statewide in Arizona once the Latino population becomes a high enough share of the statewide population and are fully mobilized as an electorate (i.e. the perfect storm that re-elected Reid in 2010). Until then he would struggle to hit 40% among this state's predominantly older and whiter electorate, especially the Mormon population.

One thing that makes Arizona difficult for Dems is that Phoenix (while still quite liberal) is one of the less liberal metro areas in the country. A Democrat with a base outside of the Phoenix area would be a stronger statewide candidate.