Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013

[Harry Hayfield]

It is being reported that Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid Cymru, Ynys Mon) is to announce his immediate retirement from Welsh politics and to stand down as the Assembly member. (Source: BBC News  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-229448360

In 2011, he had a majority of 12% over Con and 15% over Lab (and my immediate thoughts are General Election 2001 all over again)

[Harry Hayfield]

Anglesey (Ynys Mon) 1999 - 2011
1999: Plaid 53% Lab 23% Con 19% Lib Dem 5%
2003: Plaid 37% Con 28% Lab 24% Lib Dem 8% UKIP 2%
2007: Plaid 40% Ind (former Con) 23% Lab 17% Con 13% Lib Dem 3% UKIP 3%
2011: Plaid 41% Con 29% Lab 26% Lib Dem 3%

Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Local Elections 2004 - 2013
2004: Ind 65% Plaid 22% Lab 6% Lib Dem 4% Con 3%
2008: Ind 55% Plaid 21% Lab 13% Con 5% Lib Dem 4% Rates 2% UKIP 0%
2013: Plaid 32% Ind 32% Lab 17% UKIP 7% Con 6% Lib Dem 5%

[Harry Hayfield]

Not very scientific, but here's the results for both Cardiff and Westminster recently

Very impressive, but just like Ceredigion I think it is safe to assume that it has different Westminster and Assembly voting patterns

[Harry Hayfield]

Ieuan Wyn Jones formally resigned today (in writing to the Presiding Officer) and the Plaid whip in the Assembly announced that polling will take place on August 1st. That says that Plaid are running scared of Labour on Anglesey.

[Harry Hayfield]

Rhun ap Iowerth (who has been in charge of BBC Wales's election maps since 2003) has announced that he has resigned from the BBC to contest the Plaid nomination for Ynys Mon



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23021568

[Harry Hayfield]

Martin Bell won Tatton in 1997, so why not? There is one other Plaid person seeking the nomination and that is Heledd Fychan who stood in Montgomeryshire at the general election and polled 8.28% (Plaid's highest level of support since 1992)

[Harry Hayfield]

The Lib Dems have selected Steve Churchman as their candidate for the by-election.