Piara Khabra dies

[Harry Hayfield]

Ealing, Southall Result 2005:
Piara Khabra Labour 22,937 (48.75%),
Nigel Bakhai Lib Dem 11,497 (24.43%)
Mark Nicholson Conservative 10,147 (21.56%)
Sarah Edwards Green 2,175 (4.62%)
Malkiat Bilku Worker's Revolutionary Party 289 (0.61%)
Labour hold with a majority of 11,440 (24.32%)
Swing required for Lib Dem gain: 12.16%

[Harry Hayfield]

He was indeed. Taken from Wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Harry Hayfield]

Ealing, Southall Electoral History (1979 Notional - 2005 General)

1979 Notional Election:
Labour 28,498 (54.37%)
Conservatives 17,220 (32.86%)
Liberals 3,920 (7.48%)
Others 2,774 (5.29%)
Labour win with a majority of 11,278 (21.51%)

General Election 1983:
Labour 26,664 (52.31% -2.06%)
Conservatives 15,548 (30.50% -2.36%)
Alliance 8,059 (15.81% +8.33%)
National Front 555 (1.09%)
Independent 150 (0.29%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 11,116 (21.81%)
Swing from Con to Lab of 0.15%
Turnout: 71.35%

General Election 1987:
Labour 26,480 (50.74% -1.57%)
Conservatives 18,503 (35.46% +4.96%)
Alliance 6,947 (13.31% -2.50%)
Worker's Revolutionary 256 (0.49%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 7,977 (15.28%)
Swing from Lab to Con of 3.27%
Turnout: 69.73% (-1.62%)

General Election 1992:
Labour 23,476 (47.44% -3.30%)
Conservatives 16,610 (33.57% -1.89%)
Independent Labour 4,665 (9.43%)
Liberal Democrats 3,790 (7.66% -5.65%)
Green 944 (1.91%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 6,866 (13.87%)
Swing from Lab to Con of 0.71%
Turnout: 75.46% (+5.73%)

General Election 1997 (Change on Notional 1992)
Labour 32,791 (60.01% +14.73%)
Conservatives 11,368 (20.80% -15.50%)
Liberal Democrats 5,687 (10.40% +2.25%)
Socialist Labour Party 2,107 (3.85%)
Green 934 (1.70% -0.21%)
Referendum Party 854 (1.56%)
Pro Life Alliance 473 (0.86%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 428 (0.78%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 21,423 (39.21%)
Swing from Con to Lab of 15.11%
Turnout: 66.87% (-7.39%)

General Election 2001:
Labour 22,239 (47.49% -12.52%)
Conservatives 8,556 (18.27% 2.53%)
Sunrise 5,764 (12.30%)
Liberal Democrats 4,680 (9.99% -0.41%)
Green 2,119 (4.52% +2.87%)
Communities Now 1,214 (2.59%)
Independent 1,166 (2.48%)
Socialist Labour Party 921 (1.96% -1.89%)
Qari Islamic Party 169 (0.36%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 13.683 (29.22%)
Swing from Lab to Con of 4.99%
Turnout: 56.84% (-10.03%)

General Election 2005:
Labour 22,937 (48.75% +1.26%)
Liberal Democrats 11,497 (24.43% +14.44%)
Conservatives 10,147 (21.56% +3.29%)
Green 2,175 (4.62% +0.10%)
Worker's Revolutionary 289 (0.61%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 11,440 (24.32%)
Swing from Lab to Lib Dem of 6.59%
Turnout: 56.18% (-0.66%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Is a new ealing seat being created at the east end of the constituency where most of the white voters are? If that's the case, a non-Labour MP elected in the by-election (LD or Tory) would probably choose to run there.

You are quite right. The notionals in 2005 for the Ealing seats are:

Ealing Central and Acton:
Labour 12,944 (33.35%)
Conservative 12,105 (31.19%)
Liberal Democrat 11,883 (30.62%)
Green 1,869 (4.81%)
Labour win with a majority of 839 (2.16%)

Ealing North
Labour 20,483 (46.91%)
Conservative 12,357 (28.30%)
Liberal Democrat 8,390 (19.21%)
Green 1,242 (2.84%)
UK Independence Party 692 (1.58%)
Others 495 (1.13%)
Labour win with a majority of 8,126 (18.61%)

Ealing, Southall
Labour 19,634 (57.27%)
Conservative 6,494 (18.94%)
Liberal Democrat 6,254 (18.24%)
Green 1,612 (4.70%)
Others 289 (0.84%)
Labour win with a majority of 13,140 (38.33%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Hmmm... Tories have selected an Asian candidate, not a massive surprise but a bit of a risk IMHO, Tony Lit (Managing Director of Sunrise Radio) - son of the candidate who challenged Khabra as an independent in 2001, his father certainly had some personal support, but it didn't translate into him comming anywhere close to beating Khabra, then again that was a general election and he was running as an independent... so in short an interesting choice.       

And look where that Independent vote split in 2005

Labour +1%, Lib Dem +14%, Con +3%, Green n/c

In other words an Lit candidacy could hurt the Lib Dems