MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[Oryxslayer]

Seems like Alsobrooks might be getting the late deciders vote.

As was her strategy. Even if it fails, her campaign never could consistently counter Trone's mountain of cash, and would just be buried if her resources her dispersed. So instead they opted to exponentially ramp things up close to the end when opinions matter most. Even though that required sacrifices and unfavorable narratives that have permutated even this board. If those late deciders are primarily African American, then the campaign planned their strategy especially well. 

[Oryxslayer]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

You can blame Larry Hogan for that — he vetoed a bill that would have allowed mail-in-ballots to be counted early!

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1790484089868370270?t=xltVLx-ChrNivoPl-_6qUQ&...

Here's that timeline.  If things are close, like they were in the gov primary in 2022, then there won't be a call.

[Oryxslayer]

STOP TEH COUNT WE HAVE TRONEMENTUM!

These initial results actually seem really bad for Trone in counties that are majority White even in Dem registration.

[Oryxslayer]

If Trone doesn't get a landslide result in Montgomery County, then this is probably callable. Those numbers in the majority-White counties do not suggest a close race.

[Oryxslayer]

Alsobrooks only up 12 in Baltimore City. She's still in the lead by 1% even after more vote dumps came in having her get creamed on the Eastern Shore and in Trone's district. She's not losing Montgomery County as badly as I thought at the moment (8%), but I'm unsure if those votes are from Raskin's district and not Trone's.

Look at the timeline from above. This is mostly EV and early-mail. Aka in theory Trone's best groups. And he lost In person EV 53-43, and won early-counted mail 55-42. The in-person tells us the upcoming direction of travel.

[Oryxslayer]

The only downside to Trone's loss is that the race is now going to be sensationalized and overhyped by the DC #politico class cause they have front row seats. Just like what always happens in VA. In the end though it won't end up reflecting their takes cause the self-created bubble barely covers any actual voter opinions, especially those of lower-income minorities - as we just saw tonight.