2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Cactus Jack]

It's clear the GOP is going to make gains in November. The question is, how many seats? I'm guessing around 10 right now, but could be close to 15.

Onto Ignore you go.

[Cactus Jack]

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Big piece in The Intercept hightling how the DCCC and Dem establishment groups are once again choosing terrible centrist candidates over good ones because they can fundraise better. Essentially the same stuff they did in 2006 that gave them an unworkable majority filled with business-friendly moderates that got decimated in 2010.

PA-16, MN-02, AZ-02, NV-03, TX-07, TX-21, and VA-02 are amomg those mentioned in the story. The PA-16 example is particularly egregious because 1] The left-leaning candidate is outraising the DCCC's choice, 2]The DCCC's choice spent record breaking amounts of money in 2016 to end up not ony underperforming Clinton but the 2014 D candidate.

Yeah, it's a pity that DCCC won't support stellar candidates like Tim Canova, Zephyr Teachout and Vincent Fort.

I know you sort of live in a bizarre, inexplicable left-loathing bubble, but I can personally vouch that Mary Matiella is certainly the best candidate running in AZ-02. A damn sight better than Carpetbagger Kirkpatrick, in particular.

[Cactus Jack]

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Big piece in The Intercept hightling how the DCCC and Dem establishment groups are once again choosing terrible centrist candidates over good ones because they can fundraise better. Essentially the same stuff they did in 2006 that gave them an unworkable majority filled with business-friendly moderates that got decimated in 2010.

PA-16, MN-02, AZ-02, NV-03, TX-07, TX-21, and VA-02 are amomg those mentioned in the story. The PA-16 example is particularly egregious because 1] The left-leaning candidate is outraising the DCCC's choice, 2]The DCCC's choice spent record breaking amounts of money in 2016 to end up not ony underperforming Clinton but the 2014 D candidate.

Yeah, it's a pity that DCCC won't support stellar candidates like Tim Canova, Zephyr Teachout and Vincent Fort.

I know you sort of live in a bizarre, inexplicable left-loathing bubble, but I can personally vouch that Mary Matiella is certainly the best candidate running in AZ-02. A damn sight better than Carpetbagger Kirkpatrick, in particular.

Her fundraising sucks and Kirkpatrick is a pretty solid candidate, so I highly doubt that.

People seriously underestimate how much of an issue Kirkpatrick's carpetbagging really is. She has no appeal at all in Tucson and surrounding AZ-02, which is a wildly different district from AZ-01. Matiella is a local and she's a veteran, two things that the district should just love, on top of having a proven record of government service.

[Cactus Jack]

People seriously underestimate how much of an issue Kirkpatrick's carpetbagging really is. She has no appeal at all in Tucson and surrounding AZ-02, which is a wildly different district from AZ-01. Matiella is a local and she's a veteran, two things that the district should just love, on top of having a proven record of government service.

Sorry but I can't trust you. You are the same guys who sat out and grumbled about how Northam will lose because he was too conservative and not exciting enough for the base.
For all I know Kirkpatrick's carpetbagging is a thing only among Sandernistas and Justice Democrats.

Hey, pal, here's a thought: do me a favor and don't lump me in with "them". I predicted Northam+9 and wanted him to win even though he was too conservative for my tastes, because the fact is that any Democrat is better than any Republican.

[Cactus Jack]

As long as Matt Heinz isn’t the nominee again, either Kirkie or Markell’s sounds fine.

I think we're all in agreement there. Heinz is the only man who could flat-out lose this district for us in a wave year.

[Cactus Jack]

Arizona’s 2nd Democratic Primary
Mary Matiella - $50,181

For f**k's sake.

[Cactus Jack]

Arizona’s 2nd Democratic Primary
Mary Matiella - $50,181

For f**k's sake.

Still think she's a powerhouse candidate?

Not fundraising-wise, no, but I still seriously doubt Kirkpatrick's strength, especially as a long-term candidate. Our field of candidates in AZ-02 absolutely sucks.

[Cactus Jack]

https://www.twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/971786578497605632

Kelly would effectively end the race just by entering. He's the perfect candidate for McCain's seat, and the AZGOP at this point is too fractured and driven by insanity to effectively combat him. Trouble is, I'm pretty sure Kelly has a vested interest in remaining retired.

[Cactus Jack]

I want one of the AZ Berniecrats to go for McCain’s seat but he might be to the left.

If Kelly decides to stay retired, which I expect will be the case, I'm hoping Gallego will take the plunge. He's not an out-and-out Berniecrat, but he has roughly the same progressive cred as Raul Grijalva, who at this point is way too old for any higher office. Gallego is a veteran, too, which I feel is crucial for McCain's seat.

[Cactus Jack]

I want one of the AZ Berniecrats to go for McCain’s seat but he might be to the left.

If Kelly decides to stay retired, which I expect will be the case, I'm hoping Gallego will take the plunge. He's not an out-and-out Berniecrat, but he has roughly the same progressive cred as Raul Grijalva, who at this point is way too old for any higher office. Gallego is a veteran, too, which I feel is crucial for McCain's seat.

Is there any indication Gallego is interested? My understanding was Stanton’s House race was more or less a shadow Senate campaign

I expect Gallego will make the leap eventually, considering he's young enough to have decades left to his career. As for Stanton, he's definitely angling for something, but he would be an awful candidate in actuality. He has zero charisma or personal appeal in the way Sinema, Kelly, and Gallego all do, and he had a few financial stumbles as Mayor that his Republican opponent could use to their advantage.