She had a much better chance in 2008. Bush's approval in 2004 was around 50%, so I think he would be able to pull it out. But against Mccain, it would be brutal. She would be competitive in the south, but I think her wins are limited to Arkansas, Missouri, West Virginia, and Virginia. Minority turnout would be too low for her to get North Carolina or Indiana, and Tennessee and Kentucky moved to the right a bit too much for her to get them, but they are still battlegrounds. Montana is won by the slimmest of margins for Mccain, while Louisiana would also be a slim Mccain win. Here is my battleground map:
