New Tradesports rankings

[MarkWarner08]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

An essential component to any successful argument is a well-warranted assertion.
Here are the  justifications for my sanguine view of Romney's candidacy.


Important points to consider:

1. Romney's lead in recent Michigan polls is growing.
2. Romney is polling relatively well in SC and could spoil McCain's chances there.
3. Romney is the only Republican to have waged a competitive campaign in all of the first three primary or caucus states.
4. Romney's vast personal resources give him a cash spigot that can be turned on at will. This will be a huge advantage as the campaign drags into February.
5. If Romney bests McCain in Michigan and topples Giuliani in Florida, Romney will once again become the de facto GOP establishment pick.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I put the odds of him winning the nomination at 45%.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

An essential component to any successful argument is a well-warranted assertion.
Here are the  justifications for my sanguine view of Romney's candidacy.


Important points to consider:

1. Romney's lead in recent Michigan polls is growing.
2. Romney is polling relatively well in SC and could spoil McCain's chances there.
3. Romney is the only Republican to have waged a competitive campaign in all of the first three primary or caucus states.
4. Romney's vast personal resources give him a cash spigot that can be turned on at will. This will be a huge advantage as the campaign drags into February.
5. If Romney bests McCain in Michigan and topples Giuliani in Florida, Romney will once again become the de facto GOP establishment pick.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I put the odds of him winning the nomination at 45%.

Romney's relentless use of the cash spigot for a year hasn't got him above his top of 20% nationally and 30% in most states (sans Utah/Idaho).  What is going to change this? 

And how is Romney going to win when the race narrows down?  The Evangelicals supporting Huckabee aren't going to support him over McCain (or interestingly enough, probably Giuliani).  The McCain and Giuliani moderates and Indys may support him over Huckabee, but I can guarantee you that either McCain or Giuliani will get out, but not both of them.  Romney isn't going to be the pick from any "brokered convention" - the other candidates hate his guts.

Moreover, out of all of the candidates running, Romney clearly has the most GOP establishment support of all of them.  How much GOP establishment support, in the end, is going to go to a candidate who is getting slaughtered in the general election.

Personally, I now think Romney will win Michigan narrowly (since Dick Morris says that McCain will), but I don't really see how a narrow win is going to change the dynamic presently going on.  Moreover, Romney is not going to be a major factor in South Carolina IMHO - and a divided South Carolina primary actually works to McCain's favor above any other candidate (like a divided primary in most states should work to Romney's favor.

That's my thoughts.  Although, if you believe Romney is going to win Michigan, I would buy today and sell Thursday.  There should be some movement there.

Excellent points. If the race narrows down to Romney and Huckabee, Romney wins. Wouldn't you agree that Romney will be more viable than McCain on Feb. 5th if he wins in MI and FL?

The Romney route to victory:

Win Michigan.
Finish respectably in South Carolina. Make sure Huckabee beats McCain.
Beat Rudy in Florida
Hope a broke, dejected Rudy plummets in the polls.
Use the Florida bounce as a way to reintroduce himself to voters as a competent leader.
Win most of the big states on Feb. 5th

His path to victory is probably the second smoothest to the nomination, behind only that of John McCain. If he doesn't win in Florida, however, all is for naught.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

A win in Michigan and Nevada + a strong showing in South Carolina= good chance for victory in Florida. Romney will benefit from the clusters of wealthy Republicans in Florida. If he can showcase his strong leadership qualities in the public and private sectors, he should be able to pick up some more moderate suburbanites, too.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

A win in Michigan and Nevada + a strong showing in South Carolina= good chance for victory in Florida. Romney will benefit from the clusters of wealthy Republicans in Florida. If he can showcase his strong leadership qualities in the public and private sectors, he should be able to pick up some more moderate suburbanites, too.

Rudy is in his way. Florida is one place where Rudy's base is not going anywhere. And the Rudy voters and the Romney voters tend to come from the same socio-economic groups, albeit with some Salsa in Florida flavored in.

I tend to agree with your point -- I even wrote a piece last night focusing on the effect of  a Rudy Florida bounce --  but I've also noticed Rudy's numbers in Florida have been either stagnant or falling, despite his massive ad buys. Rudy already trails in some FL polls and this deficit would be further deepened by a resurgent Romney candidacy.

We both agree that it's too early to count out either Romney or Rudy.

[MarkWarner08]

South Carolina
McCain 72.5
Huckabee 25.0 (Field)
Thompson 6.0
Romney 0.1
Giuliani 0.1

This is an unbelievably undervalued stock. Huckabee is down by 2-5 points in most polls and the remaining undecided voters are most evangelicals. McCain's also falling in terms of momentum because of Romney's win and smears on his military record.

[MarkWarner08]

IEM prices last midnight

Clinton 64.3
Obama 33.7
Edwards 1.1
Rest of Field 1.0


McCain 52.5
Romney 30.1
Giuliani 14.3
Huckabee 3.1
Rest of Field 1.4
Thompson 0.3

Will Obama reach 40 if he wins by double digits in SC?

[MarkWarner08]

IEM last night

McCain 47.6 (-4.9)
Romney 37.7 (+7.6)
Giuliani 9.4 (-4.9)
Huckabee 2.6 (-0.5)
Rest of Field 1.7 (+0.3)
Thompson 0.2 (-0.1)

Clinton 64.0 (-0.3)
Obama 33.7 (nc)
Edwards 1.1 (nc)
Rest of Field 0.8 (-0.2)

Looks like some folks are buying Romney...

[MarkWarner08]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

[MarkWarner08]

McCain's surging in Florida.... Looks like the insiders are picking up on that fact.

[MarkWarner08]

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

Duh..

[MarkWarner08]

UT: Obama leads 40.1-40.0

BUY!!!!

[MarkWarner08]

Dem. nomination market narrows to nearly a 50/50 ties:

Clinton 50.5
Obama 49.5

Tomorrow, I would say buy Clinton.  I expect her to drop slightly; it's unwarranted, but it will happen.

If Obama wins more delegates than Clinton tonight, the nomination fight could be over. Eight of the next nine primaries or caucuses in February favors Obama. If he leads her in the delegate count going into the Super Tuesday 1.0 and then wins TX and OH, Clinton's campaign will probably be done.

Because of the strength of the Clinton machine, I still predict Hillary will be the nominee.

[MarkWarner08]

Dem. nomination market narrows to nearly a 50/50 ties:

Clinton 50.5
Obama 49.5

Tomorrow, I would say buy Clinton.  I expect her to drop slightly; it's unwarranted, but it will happen.

If Obama wins more delegates than Clinton tonight, the nomination fight could be over. Eight of the next nine primaries or caucuses in February favors Obama. If he leads her in the delegate count going into the Super Tuesday 1.0 and then wins TX and OH, Clinton's campaign will probably be done.

Because of the strength of the Clinton machine, I still predict Hillary will be the nominee.

The Democratic Nomination Campaign will go on past today.  This is not the Battle of Waterloo, but perhaps Ligny or Quatre Bras.

I agree. I was arguing that the Democratic race will be settled after March 4th. Super Tuesday 1.0 = March 4th.

[MarkWarner08]

Buy Clinton.

Agreed. She's definitely undervalued at this point.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama 36.5 (Much too high --- I'd put it near 20)
McCain 36.1 (Should be near 50)
Clinton 26.5 (Too low -- should be around 30)
Gore 1.0 (LOL)
Bloomberg 0.6 (about right)
Huckabee 0.4 (LOL)
Romney 0.3 (LOL)
Paul 0.3 (LOL)
Giuliani 0.2 (LOL)
Edwards 0.1 (LOL)
Thompson 0.1 (C'mon)

[MarkWarner08]

Edwards 0.1 (LOL)
Thompson 0.1 (C'mon)

You can't sell a share for $0, so 0.1 is as low as it gets.

What happened to the contracts for Dodd and Biden? Are they still at 0.1, or were they dropped completely?

[MarkWarner08]

Biden and Dodd are at 0.1, as are Richardson, Gingrich, Warner, Allen, and "field".

That makes sense. Thanks.

[MarkWarner08]

Winning individual
Obama 45.0
McCain 33.6
Clinton 21.3
Gore 1.0
Bloomberg 0.7
Huckabee 0.6
Romney 0.5
Paul 0.3
Guiliani 0.2
Edwards 0.1
Thompson 0.1
Field 0.1

McCain should be at 40, at least.

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