NE-Senate-GOP-Primary: Bruning internal poll shows Johanns ahead

[MarkWarner08]

Anyone seriously know the odds of Johanns running here?  (It'd be a huge breath of relief for the GOP, in any case.)

7:4. Seriously, my guess is he's waiting for Kerrey to announce.

[MarkWarner08]

Okay, so from what I've read thus far, Johanns seems likely to be a candidate here.  I have little doubt now that the GOP should hold this one.

You really think Kerrey vs. Johanns is slam dunk for the GOP?  Considering Nebraska, like the Dakotas, has a long tradition of sending Democrats to the Senate to tend to farm interests,  its unlikely this race will be an easy hold for the Republicans.

[MarkWarner08]

Okay, so from what I've read thus far, Johanns seems likely to be a candidate here.  I have little doubt now that the GOP should hold this one.

You really think Kerrey vs. Johanns is slam dunk for the GOP?  Considering Nebraska, like the Dakotas, has a long tradition of sending Democrats to the Senate to tend to farm interests,  its unlikely this race will be an easy hold for the Republicans.

Specifically, Nebraska has a long history of sending former Governors to the Senate.  I don't think a Kerrey/Johanns race would be a "slam dunk" for Republicans, but I do think Johanns would win it outside the margin of error.

Not to harp on the same things, but Kerrey hasn't even been living in the state since leaving the Senate.  And even considering that, his last re-election bid wasn't ultra-impressive: he only won it by 10% after outspending his opponent 5:2.

I agree that Johanns has an edge. But I'm not sure Johanns want to run in this climate.

[MarkWarner08]

By the way, that brings up a good question: Who the heck was Jan Stoney?

Here's a quote from a Time article :"It's the Gingrich gospel you hear in the words of voters like David Bywater, 26, a Nebraskan who is supporting Republican newcomer Jan Stoney against Senator Bob Kerrey. "'Seniority means you've been around too long."'
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,981737,00.html?promoid=googlep

I just realized that Kerrey's supposedly weak win was in 1994, the best GOP year in Congressional elections since the days of Ike. I'm no longer impressed by a GOPer getting 45% in such as good GOP year. Even powerful Senator Baucus barely won in '96 against a then no-name Republican (who later became Montana's Congressman).  The 90's were a tough time for Western Democrats.

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

The incident you were referring to by quote involved (1) a 21-year-old; (2) happened at a bar; (3) needs the word "alleged;" and, I guess there's even a fourth mistake if you consider it has nothing to do with Nebraska.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

Nor do I have any proof that Bill Weld is picking up women in bars either.  It was a joke.

I'd heard her age was 20, mea culpa on that point.  The bar where the incident occurred is largely frequented by college students. While the wasn't a sign saying "No Lecherous Congressman Allowed," the Congressman's posse interrupted a group that was from a younger age bracket. How is it "alleged" when the Congressman acknowledged that he took off his pin when he saw this woman? Non sequitur  =/= mistake

Thanks for clarifying a joke.  Back to Nebraska news: NYT says Kerryis having second thoughts about a Senate bid. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/21/kerrey-is-still-mulling-a-senate-run/

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

The incident you were referring to by quote involved (1) a 21-year-old; (2) happened at a bar; (3) needs the word "alleged;" and, I guess there's even a fourth mistake if you consider it has nothing to do with Nebraska.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

Nor do I have any proof that Bill Weld is picking up women in bars either.  It was a joke.

I'd heard her age was 20, mea culpa on that point.  The bar where the incident occurred is largely frequented by college students. While the wasn't a sign saying "No Lecherous Congressman Allowed," the Congressman's posse interrupted a group that was from a younger age bracket. How is it "alleged" when the Congressman acknowledged that he took off his pin when he saw this woman? Non sequitur  =/= mistake

Thanks for clarifying a joke.  Back to Nebraska news: NYT says Kerryis having second thoughts about a Senate bid. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/21/kerrey-is-still-mulling-a-senate-run/

Still, underaged is assumed to be "under 18" here in the states.

And I heard about Kerrey—can't blame him.  This thing just went from a slam dunk to an uphill climb with Johanns.

Well, in Oregon, a state that led the way on recycling and death with dignity, underage means under 21. I'm  proud to laud the virtues of life in the Beaver State. Frankly, I feel lucky to live in a place where skyscrapers are dwarfed by Douglas Firs and a person  is more likely to be mauled by a Bigfoot than injured while playing squash with a business partner.