The best you could do, presumably, would be to force some kind of I vs. I battle between Frelinghuysen and Garrett by forcing NJ-05 south into Morris... though I can't imagine that resulting in anything but the ousting of Frelinghuysen. Morris County loves its mountain men almost as much as Sussex County does.
You're better attuned to NJ politics than I am, but I would bet on Frelinghuysen. I don't think many people know or care about what kind of Republican Garett is vs. Frelinghuysen (although they'd soon find out) and I would put county loyalty and the gold value of the Frelinghuysen name over Garrett's bomb-throwing record, social conservatism, and tiny little geographic base.
Well, it entirely depends on what the final blend of the district winds up being, I suppose. Neither Rothman nor Pascrell presumably wants any part of Garrett's district (save, maybe, for those heavily Democratic areas in the 37th), so additions of Morris would likely come at the expense of the Warren County part and Democratic areas of Bergen County. The only way this would work is if New Jersey indeed fell to 12 CDs post-redistricting, the line drawers decided to have Garrett and Frelinghuysen throw down in a deathmatch, and draw a "safer" seat for Lance all at the same time. (Unlikely.)
I guess what I'm saying is that it's going to be impossible to redistrict Garrett out of a job without major demographic shifts in North Bergen and the exurbs. I mean, major long-term demographic shifts.
What if Stender wins? How would that complicate your redistricting scenario?
