How likely is a complete GOP shutout?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think its possible but unlikely.  The GOP's best chances are obviously either in the House or Gubernatorial races.  Their chances in New Jersey are remote, and Minnesota has more or less moved into the Lean D column. 

I don't see it myself but there seems to be a consensus on the forum that Melissa Bean will be defeated in IL-8.  There are other Democrats who may have less smoother rides but I think she is the current standout choice.

Gubernatorial races are often not symptomatic of national trends, but in this case I think they will be.  Iowa remains the GOP's best chance, but their candidate is currently trailing and has never led.  While there are several lacklustre Democratic Governors in Illinois, Maine and Wisconsin all of them seem to be leading and there is no reason to assume they will not prevail given the current political climate. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I believe the Democrats will win Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, gaining five seats in the Senate at least and ending in a 50-50 tie as in 2000.  I will also predict, rashly perhaps, that they will win at least Tennessee or Virginia. 

Close races for the Senate tend to all fall one way; eg. in 2004 the GOP won every closely contested race except for Colorado and Illinois.  In 2000, the Democrats won them all except Nevada.  Arguably, there is an exception that proves the rule yet I am doubtful its New Jersey in this case.  I am not too worried about Menendez yet, we are close to the elections but far away enough for the tide to turn.  I know this argument also relies on the fact that a GOP incumbent or challenger could gain in the polls but I am going to dismiss it.  Maryland will vote for Cardin by about the same margin as it went for Kerry in 2004: 56%-43% or around that area.  The Republicans used to see Washington as their chance but recent polling has shown Cantwell leading by 17%.

A new poll for IL-8 shows Melissa Bean leading 47%-28%; she may be vulnerable but in the Constituent Dynamics poll she still led 48%-45%.  There is also John Barrow possibly in Georgia; I know nothing about the race but apparently the Congressman he defeated in 2004, Max Burns is within striking distance.  One of the most interesting possibilties is VT-AL; Vermont is enough of a contrarian state to send Bernie Sanders to the Senate and elect a Republican in the same year. 

I know less about the Gubernatorial races and I used to think Judy Baar-Topinka was a possibilty in Illinois but she does not have enough cash for the fight and defeating an incumbent Democrat in Illinois is hard, especially in a year like this one.  I still believe Granholm will win in Michigan as Debbie Stabenow will pull her to victory.