New Senate Rankings

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

[Adlai Stevenson]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

I did some figuring with the 02 numbers.  If you would cut her New Orleans margin in half she still wins, by a few thousand votes.  Also keep in mind how Republican of a year 2002 was.  Louisiana is more GOP now, and it is a Presidential year, but that difference is marginalized a bit when compared with the very Republican year of 2002.

I hope you are correct - some heavily Republican parishes in the 1st District of Louisiana, which voted with 72% of the vote for Bush in 2004, also lost population.  Hopefully that dents the GOP candidate running against Landrieu as well.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Without any serious challengers to Landrieu, it is absurd to put her seat at more than Tossup.

I agree.  The 2008 Tossup states are: Louisiana, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Top... Well, Eight Races

(Previous rankings here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=55933.msg1312599#msg1312599)

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Virginia '08 looks to be the Battle of the Former Governors: Warner v. Gilmore. The smart money's on Warner.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. New Mexico (open Republican seat) [prev: 4] - Udall entering the race is a major coup for New Mexico Democrats. He's the favorite now.

4. Colorado (open Republican seat) [prev: 3] - Very slight lean to Udall on this one. At worst, he's tied with Schaffer. At best, he's up by a few points.

5. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) [prev: 8] - Louisiana Republicans didn't win either house of the state legislature, but they still made gains. Mary Landrieu is their only target in 2008 (Charlie Melancon will probably not get a serious challenge, after his 55-40 victory in '06). State Treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to Ted *or* Mark) is in, and is only down by 4 according to nonpartisan polling. If he doesn't screw up, he's got a good chance of winning this seat.

6. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) [prev: 5] - Depending on which polls you believe, Coleman is either tied or has a slight lead over Franken and Ciresi.

7. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) [prev: 6] - Smith is down to a single-digit lead, which is not a good place for an incumbent going into 2008. Still, he's in better shape than Coleman or Sununu.

8. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) [prev: 7] - Tom Allen is gaining no traction against Collins. It's a year off, but it's not promising considering Allen represents half of the state in Congress already.

OFF. Nebraska (open Republican seat) [prev: 9] - No Kerrey, no chance.

OFF. Idaho (open Republican seat) [prev: 10] - Who am I kidding?

Projected Pickups: 4 Dem (CO, NH, NM, VA), 1 Rep (LA).

I more or less agree with your predictions and I definitely agree with your rankings *I think* LOL.