1970 UK General Election

[Dr. Cynic]

Though Labour was able to form another majority government, they were much reduced and after several by-election losses found themselves relying on Liberal support. Callaghan continued on as Prime Minister, but the lack of a solid majority hampered his effectiveness to pass legislation so he chose to go to the country in 1970 before a no-confidence motion could be passed.

Callaghan's government also secured, finally, admission to the EEC and promised to take a referendum before the British public, but this was delayed until after the general election.

The EEC, so far the supreme issue before parliament took a backseat to other issues. The NUPE went on strike for several weeks, leaving several issues like garbage collection to be delayed. Three months later in early 1969, ASLEF struck, grinding to a halt all rail transport. Callaghan, Home Secretary Anthony Crosland and Secretary of State for Trade and Industry Barbara Castle could not come up with a satisfactory compromise to break the rail workers strike and this issue left a cloud over Labour's campaign. Callaghan eventually refused to meet the rail workers demands of higher pay and two days less of work a week, which revolted many of the Labour leftists, some of whom broke away to form a new party, the New Union Party, led by Tony Benn, New Union vowed to compete against Labour for the left wing vote. The New Unionists were also deeply anti-EEC, anti-NATO and pro-pricing control, which they felt would successfully combat inflation if a pricing board was set up. The New Union Party gained 14 MPs is running in 140 seats and is backed by several of the more radical unions such as the NUM and ASLEF.

With the loss of his majority, Callaghan called the election and hoped the public would stick with his leadership.

Labour: Still led by Jim Callaghan, they've been hurt by a left-wing defection. Labour is campaigning on a policy of continued reforms to the extremist trade unions and promising to combat inflation. They are also promising the British public the chance to vote on whether Britain officially joins the Common Market.

Conservative: Ted Heath has enjoyed a boost in his popularity as a moderate but tough pragmatic conservative. However, Heath has been overshadowed by Enoch Powell, who has controversially contradicted him in public, forcing Heath to sack him from the shadow cabinet. Heath is promising to do what Callaghan isn't: Take Britain into Europe and stop the extremes of the trade unions.

Liberal: Jo Grimond, exhausted after 15 years leading the Liberal Party, stood down from the leadership and was replaced by Liberal Chief Whip Eric Lubbock. Lubbock and the Liberals are always pro-Europe and are campaigning on a new issue that finally is making it into the public conscience: Proportional Representation. Lubbock also wants to devolve government to better take care of local issues.

New Union: Led by Tony Benn, this breakaway group with 14 hard left MPs is competing in 140 constituencies and thus cannot win the election. Their goals are broadly Nationalist as they are the most firmly anti-EEC party, anti-American sentiment is also high. The party is campaigning on greater rights for trade unionists and centralized planning of the economy.

Well, now we've got something interesting going, hopefully. Go on and have fun voting!

[Dr. Cynic]

Conservative.

Amusing write up of Labour being screwed by the unions.

The idea is based sort of on what happened historically to Heath (though obviously different circumstances).

[Dr. Cynic]

Tories.

Hopefully New Union will add a bit of spice to the elections. Cynic writes them well, but the standard Lab-Con-Lib makes for boring results.

I thought maybe a left wing breakaway from Labour rather than a right wing one would be of interest. If the New Unionists don't do well though, I'll consider something else.

[Dr. Cynic]

Labour again, though hoping Callaghan softens his line against the unions.  Also, wasn't Benn still on the Labour right at this point in rl?

Benn drifted to the left about the time that he first became a minister well before 1970.

[Dr. Cynic]

New Union, I suppose.  

Their standing in only fourteen constituencies stops the splitting of the Left vote, at least.

They've got 14 MPs, but are standing in 140. They can't win a government no matter what they do and their vote will be weighted.

[Dr. Cynic]

Based on the odds right now, Tories headed for an easy majority. New Union winning 49 seats. Liberals in trouble, down to 9.

Not a whole lot of data yet though.

[Dr. Cynic]

New Union is leading in 44 constituencies. They're actually not stealing votes from Labour candidates, they're really smacking the Liberals though and they're lowering the Tory majority.

[Dr. Cynic]

Socialist Workers Party

There was no Socialist Workers Party candidate either historically nor in this.

[Dr. Cynic]

Based on the current projections, here's the seat count:

Conservative (including Ulster Unionists): 353
Labour: 230
New Union: 45
Liberal: 11
Others (SNP, Plaid, SDLP, SF, etc.): 11

Labour's holding out well in Wales, only one PC seat there. New Union is leading in one West Country seat Bristol South East (Tony Benn's). Some New Union seats in Scotland as well. Tories though have a clear majority. Looks like Tony Crosland might lose his seat in Great Grimsby because of the NUP challenge.

[Dr. Cynic]

Voting locked, here's the final count:

Conservative (including UUP): 346
Labour: 233
New Union: 44
Liberal: 14
Others: 10

A couple of late Labour votes pushed their total up. A late Liberal vote also nabbed them a couple of extra seats from the original projection. Write up will probably be tomorrow, so feel free to discuss the election results tonight

[Dr. Cynic]

If you combined the Labour-NUP votes, the Tories would still have won the election, but it'd be another hung parliament.

Lower than you think. 49 seats, including many Labour incumbents were ousted by Tories where the combined Labour NUP vote would have won (Also about 11 NUP seats where this is the case and the Tory finished third. Mostly industrial seats like in Birmingham and Bolsover where Dennis Skinner ran up a big majority). The Tories did very well on their own in most seats though.

[Dr. Cynic]

Cynic further proves that the only way to have interesting Atlas elections is to have a far left party siphon away votes from a centre-left party.

How many seats did the Tories win where Labour + New Union > Conservative?

The left & right in both this and the last election (we/a)re neck and neck - if anything, even though the seat figures for the left were more generous than I was expecting, I fear the right will win consistently until this is resolved. Wait and see, I suppose.

It's sometimes difficult to get exactly right, but based on the swingometer calculations plus the weighted percentages, I think what happened is a likely result.

[Dr. Cynic]

Thanks.

Labour's 233 seats & 17% of the vote is ridiculous. Time for MMP!

They didn't get 17% of the popular vote. As I said, the NUP vote was weighted because they only ran in 140 constituencies and thus the calculations between Tory and Labour were closer. Overall, Labour figured about 30% overall. NUP about 15%. Liberals around 13% overall. Tories most of (but not all) the rest.