Which state will mirror the popular vote?

[Jacobtm]

In 2008, Virginia was the state that most closely matched the popular vote. It seems unlikely that Virginia will play that role again.

Perhaps Iowa...

[Jacobtm]

It seems unlikely that Virginia will play that role again.

Why not ?

Less pro-Obama excitement, less anti-Republican sentiment from the Bush era means fewer Obama voters will turn out and Republican voters will probably be less down in the dumps.

That doesn't mean I think Obama will necessarily lose Va, but I do think Va will return to being more Republican than the popular vote.

[Jacobtm]

2008, rounded to the nearest whole number:

PV: D-53/R-46
VA: D-53/R-46
CO: D-54/R-45
IA: D-54/R-44

VA was the closest state, though SLIGHTLY more Republican than the PV.

In '04, Va gave Bush 3 points more than his national average, Kerry 3 points less. in '08 Obama got 52.6 in Va vs. 52.9 nationally, McCain got 46.3 vs. 45.6 nationally. The difference is negligible.

Perhaps with less Obama fever and less Bush hatred CO could be the national thermometer, since IA went a bit more D/less R than CO in '08.

[Jacobtm]

Of course those things will be nationwide factors, I imagine they'll rob Obama of 1-2 points nationally, though it won't be evenly distributed.