Jacobtm
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,216
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« on: August 04, 2008, 02:18:36 AM » |
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« edited: August 04, 2008, 02:32:29 AM by Jacobtm »
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I know many people here observe Intrade, but does anyone actually have money in it? I'm looking at the U.S. Election by State market, and there appear to be some absolute steals out there. Of course any one bet may turn out to be wrong for unforseeable reasons, but if you buy like 20 states, you could garuntee about 15% return easily.
For instance, below are contract prices that seem enticing to me:
AK-R: 78
AR-R: 83
CA-D: 88
CO-D: 63
GA-R: 82
IA-D: 75
LA-R: 88
ME-D: 88
MN-D: 84
MS-R: 84
MO-R: 58
NJ-D: 88
NC-R: 69
ND-R: 75
PA-D: 71
SC-R: 87
SD-R: 78
TX-R: 87
VT-D: 88
WI-D: 83
It seems that if a candidate even makes a pretext of competing in a state, like McCain in CA or Obama in TX, the price is automatically in the high 80's. The slightest amount of media attention to an unlikely win, such as McCain in NJ and Obama and Georgia seems to drop a price down to the low 80's. And if there's just a couple of polls showing the underdog ahead, such as in NC, ND and PA, the price goes into the 70's. Sure, when you get to PA, NC, ND, IA, CO etc., you can't be sure who'll win, but when hedged against sure-fire bets like CA-D and LA-R, it's easy to protect yourself from too much risk.
Even if one just made the totally safe bets below you'd get 12.75% before fees. No hedge fund can even come close to that these days.
CA-D: 88
LA-R: 88
ME-D: 88
MS-R: 84
NJ-D: 88
SC-R: 87
TX-R: 87
VT-D: 88
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