US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Meatball Ron]

Put together a State Senate map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3292b655-5664-42a6-9abd-f9433c58b7dd

Seat composition:
2016: 34 Trump — 16 Clinton
2018: 31 Reynolds — 19 Hubbell

State House map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/777a517a-251c-4e74-a547-5cb37e6b7f14

Seat composition:
2016: 66 Trump — 34 Clinton
2018: 57 Reynolds — 43 Hubbell

Can you get these maps color-coded for partisan purposes?  I have no doubt I will see a Republican sea of red (or Atlas blue) interspersed with a few tiny Democratic islands, but still.  

Are these meant to be Republican gerrymanders, or is it just the nature of geography in Iowa that Dems will win a much lower % of the seats than their PV performance reflects? Specifically looking at the share of Hubbell seats relative to his ~48% share of the popular vote.

[Meatball Ron]

Made a 3-1 R map, though 3 districts are completive.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/88897bc0-abf0-46a4-8f5f-46cec99b5c7e

This feels appropriate to me. Could be 4R-0D in an R wave, or 3D-1R in a D wave, but the typical outcome will be 3R-1D. Probably the fairest outcome given the state's partisanship and elasticity.

[Meatball Ron]

I think the commission could produce something like this:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3ad4c15b-fadd-4eb7-ae12-70b1ec3ab71c

IA-01 and IA-02 don't change that much. Both of them voted for Trump, the former by about 5 and the latter by about 4. Hinson and Miller-Meeks will start out favored in 2022, but one or both could certainly lose in a blue wave.

IA-03, still centered on Des Moines, becomes a lot bluer at Biden +7, as it loses rural areas and gains Story. This seat is within reach for the GOP in a good year, but Axne should be favored most of the time. Even Hillary won it by 4.

IA-04 is even redder than the current version. Especially with an incumbent who isn't Steve King, this seat will be Safe R for quite some time.

Great map