Congressional Quarterly Releases Gubernatorial Forecasts for 2009-2010

[Saxwsylvania]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

I think the reason why CQ placed Oklahoma into the Lean Republican category is similar to the situation in Tennessee. You have two relatively popular and very conservative Democratic governors in OK and TN (Henry and Bredesen), two of the few states in the nation that swung Republican in 2008 - meaning, states where McCain performed better than Bush did in 2004. These two states are becoming more Republican for whatever reason and I think that gives the Republican candidates a slight edge in these vacant seats.

I can see that, and I'm not suprised we're in the lean GOP category, but I just think the odds favor the Democrats next year.  Actually, McCain only scored 16 more votes than Bush did in 2004 in Oklahoma.  The McCain/Obama tally was the same as Bush/Kerry - 66/34.  I don't think you can really call that a trend in either direction, that's more staying put.  I know that most states trended more to the left and that makes staying put look like trending right, but in terms of raw numbers we didn't trend anywhere.  Now, granted, 2010 won't be nearly as lopsided as 2006 was when Henry slaughtered Istook, but it should still be a Democratic win.

BushOklahoma, that's exactly what a trend is.  Even if Oklahoma swung to the Democrats by 2%, that would still be a trend because that's less than the national average.  It is very telling about Oklahoma that it is one of the few states that got more Republican.

[Saxwsylvania]

She has populist appeal like Betty Castor and Jean Carnahan and Claire McCaskill and Robyn Carnahan. Just like they felt buyers remorse concerning Jim Talent over Carnahan with Clair, I think the same will very well hold true concerning Betty Castor with Mel Martinez concerning Sink. She will defeat any Republican challenger that's not name Bush or Crist.

Sink is overrated.  And how would buyer's remorse from a Senate seat in 2004 translate to victory in a gubernatorial race in 2010?  It doesn't make sense.