Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions (user search)
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  Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions  (Read 6450 times)
Sadader
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Posts: 284
Botswana


« on: June 10, 2018, 03:49:37 AM »

A lot of posters assumed that Republicans would just keep surging after 2016, and that the Senate results of 2018 would mirror the results from 2016 (McCaskill and Donnelly would get Blanched, Casey/Baldwin were highly vulnerable, King was somewhat vulnerable, etc.) Some have come to terms with the reality of midterms and the swinging pendulum, others haven't.
Looking at you Limo and Lear.

In 2009, we also did this, many posters predicted Democrats would gain Senate seats that year.

to be back in the days where the Unbeatable Titan Eternal Democratic Majority was the circlejerk :’)

2010 was pretty surprising though, if you told me that Obama had 48%~ approval on election day, I’d guess that they’d keep both majorities easily. I was extremely glad on election night; I’d guessed that the GOP would take the senate narrowly.

I think an important thing to take from this thread is that you shouldn’t frame your mind in whatever election has just happened, for example with everyone convinced that Republicans would now always exceed polling averages. Most elections are just amalgamations of ramdom factors which won’t necessarily be replicated even a year on. People really need to get out of the 2016 frame of mind.
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