My other senario is that the lose of population to the south will make the north (Michigan, PA, Ohio) more like the old south: rural, quite, secluded. This in turn will make the new south (North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Florida) more like the old north: urban, entrepenurial... entra... GOD I can't spell that word, and more worldy, with Atlanta becoming the "New New York" so to speak.
Makes sense. When you describe it this way I see it as a future with more 'moderate' states. I would see the old north you mention trending GOP, and the New South staying GOP but more socially moderate.