Is Ohio 2004's top prize? Could be key to White House.

[opebo]

Ohio isn't in that bad a shape, and most of the unemployment is concentrated in the Democrat areas anyway.  Central and southwestern OH are doing fine.  In addition the cultural war and gay marriage thing are going to sink Kerry there.

[opebo]

Ohio isn't in that bad a shape, and most of the unemployment is concentrated in the Democrat areas anyway.  Central and southwestern OH are doing fine.  In addition the cultural war and gay marriage thing are going to sink Kerry there.

Most Americans do not want to see the Constitutional amendment ,proposed by Bush, pass.
It is a shameful thing to amend the Constitution as a vehicle of exclusion, intolerance and discrimination.
It is an obvious indication of Bush's desperation.

I personally don't care much about this issue, but am happy to say most Americans are with Bush on this one.

[opebo]

No I meant they generally dislike gay marriage, and thinking about it makes them more likely to vote for Bush and less likely to vote for Kerry.

[opebo]

The difference between Bush and Kerry on the Amendment is irrelevant, since the President plays no role in the process of amending the Constitution.

Since both candidates have the exact same position on gay marriage for everything except the Amendment, it's a non-issue. Kerry would not support a bill that would legalize gay marriage nationwide, not that there would be any chance of that being proposed or approved by Congress anyway, and Bush would not support a bill banning civil unions nationwide.

It doesn't matter whether Kerry claims to be against gay marriage - most Americans correctly percieve him as for it.  The reason is that the people who are pushing for it are all left-wing Democrats, so the party is perceieved as the party of gay marriage and pro-gayness in general.  Anyone who has any problem with that will vote for Bush, who is correctly percieved as being from the party that is anti-gay marriage.  In issues like these its more about reading between the lines to discover the hidden extremism of the candidate - obviously Kerry is much more pro-gay marriage than Bush, even if he denies it due to political expediency.  

[opebo]

Opebo... are you dyslexic?

I don't get your meaning.

[opebo]

What you wrote seemed a little disjointed... until I re-read it and realised that it's just illogical.

It boils down to this - for wary, cynical voters, a candidate's stated position on an issue is less believable than what his past actions, associations, etc, would imply his position to be.  Come on, Democrats have been accusing Republicans of being racist for decades, and R's never actually state that they're racist.  Same with Kerry - claims not to be into gay marriage, but clearly runs with that pack (from Massachusetts, Democrat, leftist elitist, etc.).  Certainly if opposing gay marriage matters at all to a voter, he'll choose Bush - despite any rather dubious protestations on the part of Kerry.

I read about some polling by Bill McInturff that suggests a Bush lead of 15% if gay marriage becomes a major issue in the election.  McInturff has Bush ahead by 4% nationally now, so probably just a little biased - but still, that's a big swing on one issue.   Unfortunately this polling was mentioned only in a Weekly Standard article - I don't think its available for free online.  I certainly find a 5-10% boost for Bush likely from this issue.

[opebo]

That is bigoted.
"Kerry is a Democrat from Massachusetts so he supports Gay Marriage"
Wake up pleeeease...

Bigoted?  I don't agree.  Besides, my point is about how this issue will effect the outcome of the election, not about whether or not Kerry actually supports gay marriage.

Whatever the candidates' public statements, voters can feel sure that deep down Bush is revolted by the spectacle of gay marriage - just like most of them are.  They can also feel fairly sure that Kerry is a heck of a lot more comfortable with this brand of wedded bliss than Bush, however much he may claim otherwise.  Who do you think is going to gain votes out of this issue?

[opebo]

Nobody, in all likelihood. It will be good for some Rep against Dem venom in the campaign though, and the amendment issue for some Rep against Rep venom.

Bush alone has votes to gain from this one, and even if they're not numerous, they'll be excellently located from an electoral perspective - in Midwestern swing states like Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia..  heck it would even gain a few votes in places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico.