The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

3 more states now fully counted:

Salzburg

Fischer: 77.8%
Rosenkranz: 15.9%
Gehring: 6.3%

Turnout: 48.3% (out of that 6.9% invalid)

Upper Austria

Fischer: 78.9%
Rosenkranz: 15.3%
Gehring: 5.8%

Turnout: 52.2% (out of that 7.2% invalid)

Styria

Fischer: 78.2%
Rosenkranz: 16.0%
Gehring: 5.8%

Turnout: 44.2% (out of that 6.3% invalid)

[Tender Branson]

The state of Tyrol now fully counted:

Fischer: 80.8%
Rosenkranz: 13.0%
Gehring: 6.2%

Turnout: 36.9% (out of that 3.9% invalid)

[Tender Branson]

After a few Vienna districts already reporting, it is clear that the capital is not much different from the rest of Austria when it comes to support for Rosenkranz.

I guess she`ll get 14-15% there.

[Tender Branson]

If anyone creates a map from the results, it will be pretty red.

Fischer is above 50% in every of the roughly 2400 Austrian cities so far.

[Tender Branson]

The state of Lower Austria is now fully counted:

Fischer: 77.8%
Rosenkranz: 17.0%
Gehring: 5.2%

Turnout: 59.9% (out of that 9.5% invalid)

And we are waiting only for Vienna anymore ... (should be counted in about half an hour)

[Tender Branson]

Vienna now fully counted:

Fischer: 82.5%
Rosenkranz: 14.1%
Gehring: 3.4%

Turnout: 46.2% (out of that 5.7% invalid)

.....

That means we have a preliminary final result for Austria (excl. about 200.000 postal votes that will be counted in the coming days):

Total votes cast: 3.124.953 (49.2% of eligible voters)
Invalid votes: 226.986 (7.3%)
Valid votes: 2.897.967 (92.7%)

Fischer: 2.287.640 votes (78.9%)
Rosenkranz: 452.615 (15.6%)
Gehring: 157.712 (5.4%)

I`d say that the postal votes will push Fischer close to the 80% barrier and Rosenkranz will go down to about 15% and Gehring to 5%.

[Tender Branson]

A pretty interesting result is the fact that Rosenkranz got only 7-8% in 3 of the 4 Vorarlberg districts, while she got 8.5% in Vienna-07.

Context:

Vorarlberg is the most conservative state in Austria. The Right got about 80% there in last years state election.

Vienna-07 is the most liberal district in Austria, with 70-80% voting for the Left and about 35-40% for the Greens (many students and hippies there).

[Tender Branson]

Amazing how geographically consistent the results are, especially the Fischer vote. I would have expected at least Carinthia to deviate significantly.

I think this always happens in landslides like this.

No wonder that Carinthia has the highest share for her, it also has the highest Far-Right pool.

Lower Austria, Salzburg and Styria are the next best states for Rosenkranz.

Probably has slightly to do with the home state effect, Rosenkranz is living and working in Lower Austria and was born in Salzburg.

The 2004 Presidential candidate of the ÖVP, Ferrero-Waldner, was also from Salzburg and had also relatively good results there.

The fact that Rosenkranz did so poorly in Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Vienna is probably due to the fact that the Kronen Zeitung`s exposure is very low in Vorarlberg and Tyrol and Vienna is more liberal and urban.

[Tender Branson]

The county map:



Light: 0-10%
Medium: 10-20%
Dark: 20%+

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Karmasin for Profil:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 33%
FPÖ: 19%
GRE: 12%
BZÖ: 2%
OTH: 1%

Let´s see how this will change in the coming weeks, maybe an SPÖ gain in the polls ?

[Tender Branson]

I guess the 2016 map will be slightly less boring ...

[Tender Branson]

First glimpse at the Exit poll by SORA (the full Exit poll will be released today):

Kronen Zeitung readers: 79% Fischer, 14% Rosenkranz, 6% Gehring
Other newspaper readers: 78% Fischer, 18% Rosenkranz, 4% Gehring

Men: 74% Fischer, 17% Rosenkranz, 8% Gehring
Women: 83% Fischer, 13% Rosenkranz, 3% Gehring

Voters below 30: 74% Fischer, 22% Rosenkranz, 5% Gehring
Voters older than 60: 83% Fischer, 13% Rosenkranz, 4% Gehring

2008 SPÖ voters: 83% Fischer, 12% stayed home, 4% Rosenkranz, 1% Gehring
2008 ÖVP voters: 46% stayed home, 44% Fischer, 6% Gehring, 4% Rosenkranz
2008 FPÖ voters: 63% stayed home, 25% Rosenkranz, 11% Fischer, 2% Gehring
2008 BZÖ voters: 60% stayed home, 21% Rosenkranz, 17% Fischer, 2% Gehring
2008 GRE voters: 83% Fischer, 14% stayed home, 2% Rosenkranz, 2% Gehring

[Tender Branson]

More from the Exit Poll:

About 48% did not vote for President this time.

This is how 2010 non voters break down by declared 2008 voters:

46% were already non-voters in 2008.
18% FPÖ
15% ÖVP
10% BZÖ
5% SPÖ
2% GRE
4% OTH

So, it´s pretty clear that it was primarily the Right voters, who stayed at home.

Those who voted invalid this time, broken down by declared 2008 voters:

55% ÖVP
15% are 2008 voters, who voted invalid
13% SPÖ
6% GRE
5% FPÖ
3% BZÖ

Heinz Fischer voters, by 2008 voters:

47% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
17% GRE
4% FPÖ
3% BZÖ
6% OTH
1% Invalid
0% Non-Voters

Barbara Rosenkranz voters, by 2008 voters:

44% FPÖ
23% BZÖ
12% SPÖ
11% ÖVP
2% GRE
3% OTH
2% Invalid
2% Non-Voters

Rudolf Gehring voters, by 2008 voters:

45% ÖVP
10% SPÖ
8% FPÖ
7% BZÖ
5% GRE
20% OTH
2% Invalid
4% Non-Voters

[Tender Branson]

Our "Miss South Carolina" -> from the FPÖ:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3im7JkEKXmg

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Blamage-fuer-FPOe-Funktionaerin-auf-Oe3-0691722.ece

LOL

[Tender Branson]

Here`s another fact:



Despite winning the 2010 election with 80% of the vote, President Fischer received only the same amount of votes like he did in the 2004 election when he won with only 52%, measured as a percentage of total eligible voters.

He received just 36% of the eligible voters in both elections, because turnout was lower by 20%.

[Tender Branson]

The remaining postal votes of the Presidential Election will be counted today.

A total of about 376.000 postal votes were issued and I expect that about 150.000 of them will be added to the preliminary results from Sunday.

That would increase final turnout to about 52%, up from 49%.

I´ll post final results in the evening.

[Tender Branson]

I´ll post final results in the evening.

Here are the final results with all postal votes counted:

Dr. Heinz Fischer: 2.508.373 votes (79.3%)
Barbara Rosenkranz: 481.923 votes (15.2%)
Dr. Rudolf Gehring: 171.668 votes (5.4%)

Eligible voters: 6.355.568
Total votes cast: 3.404.646
Invalid votes: 242.682
Valid votes: 3.161.964
Total turnout: 53.6% (-18.0%)

Postal votes alone:

Dr. Heinz Fischer: 220.365 votes (83.6%)
Barbara Rosenkranz: 29.047 votes (11.0%)
Dr. Rudolf Gehring: 14.161 votes (5.4%)

Total number of postal votes: 279.245
Invalid postal votes: 15.672
Valid postal votes: 263.573

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (800 people 16+ questioned, 28./29. April):

SPÖ: 31% (+3)
ÖVP: 31% (-2)
FPÖ: 19% (-2)
GRE: 13% (nc)
BZÖ: 3% (+1)
OTH: 3% (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100430_OTS0335/oesterreich-umfrage-fischer-effekt-fuer-faymann-spoe-zieht-mit-oevp-gleich

Do you want to bail out the Greeks with 3 Bio. $ ?

29% Yes
58% No

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100429_OTS0318/oesterreich-grosse-mehrheit-der-oesterreicher-gegen-griechen-hilfe

[Tender Branson]

Here is the Wahlkabine for Burgenland (state elections there on May 30):

http://politikkabine.at/wahlen/index.php?page=voter.Questionnaire

My results:

SPÖ: 75%
ÖVP: 66%
Greens: 55%
Liste Burgenland: 53%
FPÖ: 47%

[Tender Branson]

What is the "Liste Burgenland" and have they a chance to come into the Parliament?

The "Liste Burgenland" is a new centrist independent group, similar to the "Freie Wähler" in Germany, running in this years state elections. I´d say they won`t get more than 2-3% of the votes.

Plus:

Here`s a new federal Market poll for the newspaper Standard, after the Presidential elections.

ÖVP: 29%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 22%
GRE: 12%
BZÖ: 5%
OTH: 4%

Seems like the Rosenkranz defeat had no impact on the FPÖ numbers.

The BZÖ wasn`t in the news until yesterday, when they adopted a new party program at their convention in Vienna. The program is now more centrist and even has a few Green and Social-Democratic aspects. Let`s see how this affects poll numbers in the future.

[Tender Branson]

The final results of the 2010 Presidential Election were announced yesterday:

Dr. Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 2.508.373 votes (79.33%)
Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ): 481.923 votes (15.24%)
Dr. Rudolf Gehring (CPÖ): 171.668 votes (5.43%)

Eligible voters: 6.355.800
Total votes cast: 3.404.646
Invalid votes cast: 242.682 (7.13%)
Valid votes cast: 3.161.964
Turnout: 53.57%

http://wahl10.bmi.gv.at

Here`s an Excel-sheet with results from all Austrian towns, districts, electoral districts and states.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2010/files/Ergebnis_E_BPW_2010.xls

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland state elections (May 30) poll by Market for "Standard":

SPÖ: 50% (-2%)
ÖVP: 38% (+2%)
FPÖ: 7% (+1%)
GRE: 5% (nc)
LBL: 0% (new)

Direct vote for Governor:

Hans Niessl (SPÖ): 43%
Franz Steindl (ÖVP): 27%
Manfred Kölly (LBL): 3%
Johann Tschürtz (FPÖ): 2%
Michael Reimon (GRE): 0%
Undecided/None of them: 25%

http://derstandard.at/1271376710811/Niessls-SPOe-koennte-Absolute-knapp-halten

.....

Upper Austria federal elections poll by Market:

SPÖ: 28% (-2%)
ÖVP: 27% (nc)
FPÖ: 22% (+3%)
GRE: 12% (+2%)
BZÖ: 5% (-4%)
OTH: 6% (+1%)

Upper Austria state elections poll by Market:

ÖVP: 46% (-1%)
SPÖ: 25% (nc)
FPÖ: 17% (+2%)
GRE: 11% (+2%)
BZÖ: 1% (-2%)
OTH: 0% (-1%)

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/art383,392279

[Tender Branson]

New Burgenland poll by GMK:

[Tender Branson]

Final 2010 population statistics for Austria have been released today and the Germans are now the biggest group of foreigners in the country for the first time:

The population increased by about 20.000 people in 2009 and out of the 8.375.000 people, 895.000 are now foreigners (11%).

From the 895.000 foreigners, 138.000 are now Germans and 112.000 are Turks.



The biggest population increases are in the suburbs of bigger cities like Vienna, Graz, Linz, Salzburg, Innsbruck and the Rheintal.

Here are 3 maps showing the 2009 population dynamics in each town:

First, total population change per 1000 people:



Second, the natural population change (birth minus deaths) per 1000 people:



Third, the migration change (immigration minus emigration) per 1000 people:

[Tender Branson]

Finally, Austria`s becoming more "leftist" again.

New federal poll by Karmasin Motivforschung for the newspaper "Profil":

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 32%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 2%
Others: 2%

Right: 52% (-8/9% since last year)
Left: 46% (+6/7% since last year)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Faymann (SPÖ): 23%
Pröll (ÖVP): 23%
Glawischnig (Greens): 6%
Strache (FPÖ): 5%

Should Austria help bail out the Greeks and others ?

48% Yes
42% No

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100520_OTS0018/profil-umfrage-spoe-vor-oevp-proell-und-faymann-gleichauf/channel/politik