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Author Topic: Swedish election 2010  (Read 70668 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: July 13, 2010, 09:15:31 AM »

Littorin affair hits voter confidence in Reinfeldt

Sweden's Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt's popularity has dipped as a result of the resignation of employment minister Sven Otto Littorin  amid allegations that he bought sex in 2006, a new survey by Sifo shows.

In the Sifo survey, published in the Aftonbladet  tabloid which exposed the allegations against Littorin, 18 percent of respondents said that their confidence in Fredrik Reinfeldt has fallen after the affair.

In a further survey, by the Expressen daily and conducted by Demoskop, 31 percent of respondents claimed that their confidence in Reinfeldt had declined.

Confidence in the Alliance government has also fallen, by 32 percent in the Expressen/Demoskop survey.

Despite the figures, the vast majority of respondents - 62 and 65 percent respectively - responded that their confidence in the government remained unchanged.

Both studies show that it is primarily voters who vote for the opposition parties who had lost confidence in both the prime minister and the government.

The two studies were carried out on Monday with the Sifo study involving 1,000 people, and the Demoskop poll involving 752 people in an internet panel.

Aftonbladet on July 10th published allegations from a 30-year-old woman who claimed to have sold sex to Sven Otto Littorin prior to his appointment as a minister in 2006. The newspaper has also claimed that Littorin resigned his post a day after he was challenged to comment on the allegations.

Sven Otto Littorin has since denied the allegations and Fredrik Reinfeldt has denied any knowledge of them saying only that the ex-minister gave "several reasons" for his departure from the government.

http://www.thelocal.se/27760/20100713/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2010, 12:00:51 PM »

What´s up with Sifo and Synovate ? No poll from them for a long time now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2010, 10:43:43 AM »

Gustaf (or anyone else), what do you see as most likely coalition if the Sweden Democrats get in ?

Minority government by either side ?

Minority government by the Center-Right coalition, backed by the SD (just like in Holland) ?

(Is that even possible, what do the leaders of the Center-Right coalition say to that ?)

Or a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the Moderates ? What is the leader´s position on this ?

If it´s like in Austria, politicians from the major parties are not talking much about possible coalitions before the elections, but maybe the Swedish leaders have more to say, just like in Germany.

Also: What are the main election topics in Sweden right now and what are the positions of the parties ?

Thx.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2010, 09:20:53 AM »

New Sifo poll out today:



48.6% for the Government
45.0% for the Opposition
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2010, 09:42:15 AM »

Did the SD use to underpoll in previous elections, like 2002 and 2006 ?

I know they underpolled by quite a bit in the 2009 EP elections (polled 1.5-2%, got 3.5%).

I think 6-7% might be possible for them, if they end the pre-election campaign with about 5%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2010, 10:09:10 AM »

Did the SD use to underpoll in previous elections, like 2002 and 2006 ?

Yes, they underpolled both 2002 and 2006 and they're pretty certain to do so again.

The question I'm wondering is weather they'll take away more from the Alliance or the Red-Greens, or if they'll take about as much from both sides.

Here in Austria the FPÖ gains mostly at the expense of the SPÖ because of their nationalist and socialist policy proposals that are doing well with lower-income workers and looking at the Youth poll above, I think the SD are also gaining mostly from the Social Democrats and to a lesser extent from the Center-Right parties. Therefore I´d compare the SD more with the FPÖ, rather than the BZÖ - which is more gaining voters of dissatisfied ÖVP folks.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2010, 09:16:13 AM »

Swedish far right eyes first parliament seats



By Patrick Lannin and Johan Ahlander
LANDSKRONA, Sweden | Fri Sep 10, 2010 9:09am EDT

(Reuters) - In Sweden's last general election, a surge in voter support for an anti-immigrant party in this small, southern coastal town shocked a nation long regarded as one of the world's most liberal.

That party, the Sweden Democrats, now hopes to win its first parliamentary seats in elections on September 19, a radical departure for the country could make forming a new government more difficult for the established parties.

Svenny Hakansson, 77, looks like a kindly grandfather -- mild-mannered and friendly, with an easy smile. Yet the local councilor's political views are tough.

"We want to reduce immigration, we want to get it down to the levels of Denmark and Finland, which is about 20 percent of what Sweden takes in," he told Reuters, sitting in the party's basement offices in this depressed former shipbuilding town.

"Then we want to expel more immigrants who commit crimes than we do now," added the former ports chief, describing what the Sweden Democrats call "a responsible immigration policy."

The rise in support for his party suggests that despite years of tolerance for relatively high levels of immigration, not enough has been done to integrate new arrivals.

It mirrors developments elsewhere in Europe: anti-immigrant parties are already popular in Nordic neighbors Denmark and Norway as well as Italy, France and Belgium and have made strong headway recently in the Netherlands and Austria.

Islam is a particular focus of criticism for the Sweden Democrats, who contend it is not compatible with Swedish values.

"We have religious freedom in Sweden and we shall have that in the future. What I am against is the adaptation of society to the Muslim minority," said party leader Jimmie Akesson.

Critics say the party is racist. Akesson disagrees.

"Criticizing immigration policy is not racist, it is not racist to demand that the law shall apply equally to all, that we shall not have particular rights for certain ethnic groups in Sweden. That is not racism, it is common sense," he added.

BALANCE OF POWER?

Center-right Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt this week called the Sweden Democrats "a right-wing, xenophobic populist party" akin to those found in other European countries.

They were inspired by the Danish People's Party, which grew out of a 1970s anti-tax movement to become one of Europe's most successful anti-immigrant parties.

The center-right Danish minority government usually relies on People's Party support in parliament in return for tougher immigration laws.

The Sweden Democrats polled 2.93 percent nationwide in the 2006 election. Sweden has a threshold of 4 percent of votes to win seats in the 349-member parliament and opinion polls suggest the party has a good shot at clearing the hurdle this time.

That in turn could deprive Reinfeldt, whose center-right coalition has a narrow lead over the opposition, of a majority and leave the far right party holding the balance of power.

A poll on Friday gave the government a slim overall majority even though the Sweden Democrats look set to win seats. Earlier surveys showed the coalition falling just short.

Reinfeldt has said he will not work with the Sweden Democrats. But Professor Folke Johansson of Gothenburg University said the prime minister may have no choice.

"When the government is thinking of putting forward a proposal they will obviously think who will support it, whether it will be the opposition or whether the Sweden Democrats are the only hope," Johansson said.

SHIFT IN STYLE

The rise in support for the Sweden Democrats has come after the party shed its image of skinheads and bomber jackets. A new generation of smartly dressed men and women has taken over.

In Landskrona, the party found fertile ground. The town of 40,000 has high unemployment after the shipbuilding industry was shut down.

Immigration has been higher than elsewhere, said Dragan Kostic, 50, who runs integration work for the local authority.

"It is almost double (the national level)," he told Reuters, saying about 32 percent of the town's population have an immigrant background versus 16 or 17 percent for the country.

The lack of jobs make people more resentful, he says. Part of his job is to get people from different backgrounds together, particularly the youth.

He rejects the Sweden Democrats' solutions.

"They do not have a patent on the idea that it (integration) is not working or that there are difficulties," he said.

"They just deal with the question in a completely different way, in a much more radical way, with much more radical solutions," added Kostic, himself born in former Yugoslavia.

Across town, Fekri Hamad, 43, is the imam of a makeshift mosque on the ground floor of an old office building. From a distance, there is no sign that it is a mosque.

A poster proclaiming its name is hung only on the inside.

Hamad, who came from the Palestinian territories 10 years ago, also sees problems with immigration, but he says Swedes are partly responsible.

"All young people (of immigrant background) feel that society does not accept them," he said.

Hamad held up a poster of Social Democrat leader Mona Sahlin wearing an Islamic-style headscarve, paraphernalia distributed by another anti-immigrant group to attack her. "With a veil or without a veil, she is Swedish," he said.

The imam remained optimistic. "History shows...that Scandinavia is a land of freedom, they like peace...That is the Sweden we know from before and which we still know," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68929F20100910
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2010, 02:01:05 AM »

Why was this not mentioned yet ?

http://www.youtube.com/user/SDReklam2010#p/a/u/2/XkRRdth8AHc

The Swedish TV4 actually censored the race between the old woman and the breeding burqa-crowd ... Tongue

(Not that I can say its different here: The courts also banned the Anti-Minaret game by the FPÖ recently.)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2010, 08:27:45 AM »


Alliance: 49.1%

M: 29.8%
Kd: 6.5%
Fp: 7.1%
C: 5.7%

Red-Greens - 43.1%

S: 29.6%
Mp: 8.3%
V: 5.2%

Sweden Democrats - 6.8%

Others: 1.0%

Turnout: 81.3%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2010, 02:22:34 AM »

7.123.082 people are eligible to vote.

2.178.425 people have already voted early. That´s up from 1.793.675 in 2006.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2010, 09:32:34 AM »

Is it correct that in Sweden members of each party are distributing ballot papers of their own party to voters outside of voting booths ?

Therefore many voters are just taking their ballot papers from home to the voting booth or pick ballot papers from more than 1 party in front of the voting booth and take them into the booth, so that no other person can see which party he/she is voting for ?

Or something like this I have read today Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2010, 11:03:38 AM »

Is it correct that in Sweden members of each party are distributing ballot papers of their own party to voters outside of voting booths ?

Therefore many voters are just taking their ballot papers from home to the voting booth or pick ballot papers from more than 1 party in front of the voting booth and take them into the booth, so that no other person can see which party he/she is voting for ?

Or something like this I have read today Tongue

Yes, that is correct. Apart from the "taking ballot papers from home to the voting booth" part, because I never heard of anyone doing that.

Ah ok, but how can that be in line with the "secrecy of the vote" ?

If you have to go to the party that you wanna vote for to get your ballot and anyone can watch you and knows which party you are voting for ?

Or are the ballots that are given out just like regular ballots with all the other parties on it as well ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2010, 12:04:11 PM »

Is there some kind of live-stream on a Swedish TV station ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2010, 12:13:08 PM »

If you have to go to the party that you wanna vote for to get your ballot and anyone can watch you and knows which party you are voting for ?

Or are the ballots that are given out just like regular ballots with all the other parties on it as well ?

Ballots look like this. They're individual for every party with the party's name on top, and a list of the candidates in your district. (The boxes in front of the names are there so that you can select a special candidate that you want your vote to go to) Ballots have different colours for what election they are for, yellow for Parliament, blue for County Council, and white for City Council.



If you don't want people to know what party you vote for, you take one ballot from every party or bring ballots from home. Hope that explains it. Smiley

EDIT: LESS THAN AN HOUR TO EXIT POLLS!!!



hahaha. what a waste of paper ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2010, 12:53:28 PM »

About 5 minutes until exit polls ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2010, 12:55:25 PM »

Is "Valvakan" the live stream ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2010, 12:56:30 PM »

Ah, now I´ve found it:

http://svt.se/2.136784
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2010, 01:01:22 PM »

YAY !!! Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2010, 01:04:31 PM »


No, but the Sweden Democrats @ only 4.6% !!! Smiley

And the Social Democrats are the strongest party.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2010, 01:08:58 PM »

V: 6.1% S: 30.0% MP: 9.0%

Red-Red-Green: 45.1%

C: 7.1% FP: 7.2%, KD: 5.7%, M: 29.1%

Alliance: 49.1%

SD: 4.6%

Others: 1.2%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2010, 01:13:42 PM »

TV4 has a different exit poll:

M 27,2 (1,0)
Fp 6,9 (-0,6)
C 7,0 (-0,9)
Kd 7,1 (0,5)

Alliansen 48,2 (0)

S 32,7 (-2,3)
V 5,9 (0)
Mp 7,8 (2,6)

Rödgröna 46,4 (0,3)

SD 4,1 (1,2)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2010, 01:28:00 PM »

2 out of 5668 precincts already reporting.

Turnout seems to be higher than in 2006, maybe 85% or so.

http://www.val.se/val/val2010/valnatt/R/rike/index.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2010, 01:36:39 PM »

Is there a tendency for SD voters to "lie" in Exit polls just like FPÖ voters normally do here or are Exit polls in Sweden fairly accurate ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2010, 01:41:17 PM »

The early results indicate a doubling of support for the SD, which would project a final result of around 6% Sweden-wide.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2010, 01:53:14 PM »

2% of the precincts counted.

SD still at 7%, but I guess most of these early stuff is coming from the South, where the SD is stronger. Once Stockholm comes in, their support will go down steadily.
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