Predict the May Job Growth

[Tender Branson]

The May release should be out next Friday.

I´d say about 438.000 jobs.

[Tender Branson]

I´m updating this to 674.000 jobs, including the Census Jobs.

About 400.000 Census jobs and 274.000 private sector jobs.

[Tender Branson]

Economists estimate about 513,000 new jobs, according to several news sources.

I went with 400-500,000 because anything over that is extremely rare. Would be great if it was over 500 K though.

If there are fewer than 150,000 non-Census jobs though, the stock market might react negatively.

It was already said in the morning that about 420.000 Census jobs will be reported in this release, so the question is only how many private sector jobs have been created.

I base my estimate on the Gallup job creation survey, which had a strong surge in May and is continuing now.

I think the rate might go down to 9.7%

[Tender Branson]

Meh, only 431.000 jobs, with 411.000 census jobs.

Rate = 9.7% (-0.2%)

[Tender Branson]

Economists estimate about 513,000 new jobs, according to several news sources.

I went with 400-500,000 because anything over that is extremely rare. Would be great if it was over 500 K though.

If there are fewer than 150,000 non-Census jobs though, the stock market might react negatively.

It was already said in the morning that about 420.000 Census jobs will be reported in this release, so the question is only how many private sector jobs have been created.

I base my estimate on the Gallup job creation survey, which had a strong surge in May and is continuing now.

I think the rate might go down to 9.7%

Hmm, probably shouldn´t trust Gallup on this:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110134/Gallup-Daily-US-Job-Market.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Wait, it may not be that bad actually:

Census pay may have lured workers from taking other jobs

Last week's disappointing report on the job market may not be as dreary as it appears.

Some economists say the addition of 411,000 temporary Census workers in May didn't just mask a poor showing by the more critical private sector — it could have been a big reason for the bleak numbers.

Many unemployed workers who otherwise would have taken permanent jobs at private firms instead likely opted for higher-paying temporary Census jobs, economists say. That could have left fewer good candidates for private-sector jobs and prompted employers to put off hiring, says Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist for Federated Investors, an investment firm.

In fact, a similar dynamic was at work in each of the previous four censuses, Deutsche Bank said in a report.

In May of 2000, Census hired 348,000 workers, and private-sector employment fell by 120,000. That was an anomaly: Private jobs surged by 217,000 in April and 214,000 in June.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2010-06-08-census08_ST_N.htm