Civil War in Syria

[Tender Branson]

With Assad+Russia bombing the sh*t out of the remaining few "rebels" in Southern Syria, Putin+Trump will likely discuss the US Al-Tanf base on the border to Iraq/Jordan.

The US could leave the area, which would cement Assad and Putin's "victory" in Syria.

Only Idlib would remain as the last "rebel"-held part.

[Tender Branson]

The Syrian Army + Russians have reached the Nasib/Jordan border crossing on a major highway.

It means the eastern part of the Daraa pocket is now fully under government control.

[Tender Branson]

It seems the "rebels" in Daraa have just handed in their capitulation and agreed to surrender their weapons to Assad/Russia/Iran, with Russian military police then stationed in the province of Daraa.

Those "rebels" that do not want to live under the Assad-rule there will be transported to Idlib in North Syria.

https://twitter.com/aawsat_eng/status/1015214203920056320

https://twitter.com/aawsat_eng/status/1015212833993261056

https://twitter.com/aawsat_eng/status/1015213131923120128

[Tender Branson]

What do you think will be the next step in Syria ?

Assad going after Idlib ? Will he try to kick the Turks out ?

[Tender Branson]

What do you think will be the next step in Syria ?

Assad going after Idlib ? Will he try to kick the Turks out ?

I think something more low key like that small pocket on the Iraq/Jordan border.

That's only the desert area around the Al-Tanf military base from the US.

I don't think the Syrian Army is advancing there without a deal with Russia ... (but this could happen during Trump/Putin's Helsinki summit).

Meanwhile, the Syrian Army is advancing closer to the Golan Heights (Isreali border).

[Tender Branson]

The Assad Army has made huge gains today (the city of Daraa was fully liberated from the "rebels").

Only a tiny piece of land near the Golan remains (which will be cleared in the next few days I assume). And that nasty small IS pocket there.

The Kurds are also clearing some of the desert area from IS near the Iraq border.

[Tender Branson]

The Assad Army is still making a lot of progress and has almost reached the Israeli border fence today.

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/syrian-government-seizes-strategic-hill-overlooking-golan-heights-180717071515549.html

Plus: several hundreds of Syrian refugees wanted to pass into Israel (Golan).

But the Israeli soldiers didn't let them in ...

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https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5311566,00.html

[Tender Branson]

The "rebels" in the largest remaining city in Daraa province (= Nawa, 100k people) have surrendered today after heavy overnight bombardment by the Assad Army, who have now entered the city.

That means that virtually all of Daraa is now under control of the Assad army again.

Quneitra province is a very small strip near the Israeli-occupied Golan and will be quickly taken (because the UN observer force is there and basically no "rebels").

That only leaves the small IS-pocket there and the Russians have already started to bomb the largest town there today, Tasil.

https://syria.liveuamap.com

[Tender Branson]

The "rebels" in Quneitra province have surrendered:

http://www.euronews.com/2018/07/19/syrian-state-media-says-deal-reportedly-reached-over-quneitra

[Tender Branson]

Endgame in the South:

Russian jets launch massive attack on ISIS as Syrian troops prepare to storm southwest Daraa pocket

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https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-jets-launch-massive-attack-on-isis-as-syrian-troops-prepare-to-storm-southwest-daraa

[Tender Branson]

While the Syrian Army now controls most of the border to Israel again on the Golan, the army also made significant gains tonight in the remaining small IS pocket there.

I assume that this pocket will be cleansed from the IS rats within a few weeks.

I then think the focus will shift on Idlib and North Aleppo provinces, which are the last remaining areas to be held by the so-called "rebels".

I think a massive "end-game-offensive" will start there in the fall or before Christmas, after which Assad and Putin will emerge victorious in the Syrian Civil War.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/21/syria-idlib-putin-assad-winners-iran

[Tender Branson]

Huge (terror) attack by IS in Suweida, Southern Syria, today. Killing more than 200 people.

This is in an area that is under Syrian army control, but where IS is still very active.

On the other hand, the Syrian army made some progress today on the IS pocket near the Golan Heights, capturing some villages on the north-west of the pocket.

And in Eastern Syria, the Kurds also cleansed the remaining desert pocket from IS (but there are still some towns left on the border to Iraq).

[Tender Branson]

Reports of Daesh's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

It's more likely that these are the last twitches of the IS bull that is currently being slaughtered ... (The Syrian army and Kurds are making big progress in all the remaining IS areas and they are coming after them, so of course they are blowing themselves up).

IS' territory will soon be completely destroyed in Syria and Iraq.

Just today, the Syrian army basically cut the IS pocket near the Golan in half ...

[Tender Branson]

Current map (as of yesterday):

* The IS-pocket near the Golan/Israel has been cut to about 1/3rd of its original size in recent days and the remaining areas will quickly fall. That means the Syrian army has full control of the South-West in a few days.

* The large IS-area in the desert on the border to Iraq does not exist any longer, because the Kurds have recently moved into the area, screened it for remaining fighters and cleansed it.

* A few towns in the Euphrates valley on the border to Iraq remain under IS control (Hajin etc.)

* There's also some IS-held desert area left between Palmyra and Deir-Ez Zor (but other sources say the Syrian army has also cleansed this area).

* The green desert area in the South is the US-base of Al-Tanf, surrounded by some "rebels".

* That leaves Idlib province and North/West Aleppo province, which are held by the "rebels" and the invasive Turks. Yesterday, the Syrian Kurds have met the Assad government in Damascus and held talks about a future military campaign together with the Assad army against the "rebels" and the Turks. I assume if talks fail, the Idlib/Aleppo offensive will start before Christmas.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, the Syrian Kurds have met the Assad government in Damascus and held talks about a future military campaign together with the Assad army against the "rebels" and the Turks. I assume if talks fail, the Idlib/Aleppo offensive will start before Christmas.

And if they don't fail it will start right away?

The map is confusing in the NW. The green areas should be rebel held territory, but include some apparently Turkish held areas, and what does white indicate?

Not sure if there will be any real "talks" between the Assad government/Kurds/Russia/Iran/Hisbollah and the so-called "rebels" + Turkey in the NW ...

I assume Assad & Allies will only tell them to surrender and on Turkey to back out of Syria or face utter destruction in the fall.

Map: the white areas are controlled by HTS, which is Syria's version of Al-Qaida. They are roughly the same crowd as IS, with the same fundamentalist and backwards worldview - just with a different name. At least the NW right now is a total mess with the so-called "rebels" there killing each other off. I hope this infighting keeps up, because then the Assad-army will have an easier time liquidating them in the fall ...

[Tender Branson]

The IS pocket near the Israeli-occupied Golan does not exist any longer.

The Assad forces have re-taken all cities there today.

[Tender Branson]

Where did you see that last of the IS pocket near the Golan Heights fell?

All the Syrian Civil War live maps are showing it + here:

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/31/syrian-government-forces-seal-victory-in-southern-territories

[Tender Branson]

After the Syrian army liberated the area occupied by IS near the Golan, another IS area popped up east of Suweida after the deadly attacks there.

But the Syrian army has launched an offensive there and has already re-gained some of the area (it seems many IS fighters fled to the area after being defeated near the Golan).

There's not much progress though in the remaining IS-held towns in the Euphrates valley near the Iraq border. It seems the Kurds/US are not making a big effort to oust them there.

[Tender Branson]

It seems the Idlib offensive has started ... (about a month or two earlier than I thought).

There was huge bombardment north of Hama today and Syrian army forces + allies are being trucked to South Idlib in large numbers.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-air-force-launches-largest-assault-of-the-year-on-southwest-idlib

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http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/10082018

Not sure if this is the right time: maybe it would have been better to consolidate and "clean up" the recently-captured areas in the South and in the desert first and only then attack Idlib and the remaining areas of Aleppo ... ? If troops are redeployed from the South/desert to Idlib now, the chances of an IS comeback will increase I guess.

[Tender Branson]

"Surrender notes" is not entirely correct.

This is what the Syrian army dropped on the "rebel"-held areas of Idlib and Aleppo:

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Thank Goodness the noose is tightening around the neck of the so-called "rebels" (who are nothing more than stone-aged Islamo-Fascists). About time the US fully abandons these fu**ers and joins the right side in the final battle for Syria.

[Tender Branson]

The Syrian army has almost cleansed the complete Suweida pocket in the desert that was still held by IS.

Only isolated IS cells remain in Syria and Iraq who strike government forces, but no real territory is left under their control.

[Tender Branson]

In addition to the coming Idlib Offensive:

Russia + the Syrian army have warned the US several times that they will soon attack the US-base in Al-Tanf and the surrounding area, forcing the US troops to abandon their base and retreat to Iraq or Jordan.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/06/politics/syria-russia-attack-warning-pentagon/index.html

[Tender Branson]

In other news the SDF still hasn't taken Hajin or Ash Sha 'fah. I wonder what is preventing them from clearing out the last ISIS pocket left.

They have started a "final" offensive there today, attacking the region from all sides.

But the Kurds still think it will take at least 2-3 months, because:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/world/middleeast/isis-syria.html

Also, the Syrian Army has started an offensive in the desert east of Palmyra, where some IS sleeper cells are still active. Some "Civil War Maps" still have a large portion of the desert there under IS control (which is not accurate, see map above), while others have it completely cleared already (also not accurate).

[Tender Branson]

"Solving" the Idlib problem militarily will take quite some time and will lead to many losses on the Assad side, so that invasion of Kurdish Syria is not an option afterwards.

[Tender Branson]

Putin: "There will be no military offensive in Idlib."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45554188

Instead, a de-militarized zone patrolled by Russians and Turks will be created.

I guess this is the best option right now ...