2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Odenwald:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahlkreis_Odenwald

Since 2008, I've voted CDU in elections at most levels (except for 1 or 2 defections to the FDP in my...stupid...teenage years.)

I think I've honestly turned into a social democrat, more or less, but I still believe in Merkel's competence and...with some reservations...tend to value her overall leadership at EU level. But ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green. Problem is I really don't think Steinbrück would be any good.

Glad there's still 5 months to go...

Were you planning to vote CDU for the first vote, and then Grün for the second vote?

I'm sadly 4 months too young to vote in this election, but as a UK resident I guess I would have to cast a vote at the German embassy rather than voting in my home wahlkreis of Hamburg-Nord.

Are you a German citizen ? Besides the fact that you would be too young in this election, you cannot vote anyway if you are not a German citizen, but a UK one.

If you are a German citizen living in the UK and old enough to vote, you can usually request an absentee ballot that is sent to you to the UK and then you can send it back or return it to the German embassy in the UK where it is usually counted too.

Did you really think I was that stupid? Of course I'm a German citizen. I'm just unfamiliar with absentee ballot processes for German elections.

Nope. Actually, after reading it again I made a small mistake: I thought you were a UK citizen living in Hamburg and trying to vote there, because you could have thought that it's possible because you are an EU-citizen. I mixed up UK resident with Uk citizen ...

[Tender Branson]

It's a shame Steinbrück is their candidate. I'd have no reservations voting SPD if Kraft were in charge...

Well, I think it's better this way.

Let's hope that NRW continues to have no scandals and Kraft remains popular and then she can take over the SPD in the next elections.

Mostly because I don't think that even Kraft could narrow the gap to 0 now as SPD-Chancellor candidate. And Merkel would be more worn out by 2017.

[Tender Branson]

Or CDU-FDP pulls it out again ... (unlikely, but who knows).

[Tender Branson]

Forsa, 10.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 9%
FDP: 6%

Piraten: 3%

CDU-FDP narrowly retains majority (47-46).

If there were a direct chancellor vote:

Merkel: 57%
Steinbrück: 19%

He gets even less than the 2009-like low result of his party ?

EPIC FAIL.

Even I would (hypothetically) vote for Merkel ... as a Green voter.

[Tender Branson]

First time that AfD checks in at a federal poll (YouGov):

39% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
15% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
  3% AfD
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU/CSU-FDP with no majority (44% vs. 47% for SPD-Greens-Left).

SPD-Greens far away from a majority (41% vs. 50%)

...

Also, a new GMS poll:

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
13% Greens
  8% Left
  6% FDP
  2% FW
  2% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU/CSU-FDP with a majority (48-45).

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll shows CDU/CSU almost twice as strong as the SPD:

42% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for the current government.

[Tender Branson]

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

Well both polls were taken before the convention on sunday so there MIGHT be a bump. But for him to resign now would be even worse now probably.

Maybe there's a negative bump for the SPD ? Previously, the more Steinbrück has been in the news, the worse it became for the SPD in the polls that followed ...

[Tender Branson]

New Hessen state elections poll by FGW:



49-41 majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

A couple new polls by YouGov:

Federal

38% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
15% Greens
  6% Left
  5% AfD
  5% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% FW
  2% Others

No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP (43-52), SPD-Greens (41-54) or SPD-Greens-Left (47-48).

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP is possible (48-47).

CDU/CSU-Greens is possible (53-42).

CDU/CSU-SPD is possible (64-31).

Any other coalition is probably very unlikely.

Bavaria (Sept. state election)

49% CSU
18% SPD
16% Greens
  9% FW
  2% FDP
  2% Left
  4% Others

Absolute majority for the CSU (49-43).

[Tender Branson]

The federal YouGov poll shows that the Left and the Right split down the country by ca. 50-50 now:

49% Left (SPD, Greens, Left, Pirates)
49% Right (CDU, CSU, AfD, FDP, FW)

If you assume that 1% of "others" is NPD, it's actually 50-49 for the Right.

[Tender Branson]

Question for you Germans:

In a hypothetical scenario, would it be legally possible for Frank Stronach to fund the AfD ahead of the election ? What is required to fund a party in Germany ? Do you need to have your main residence in Germany to donate to a party ? Would a secondary residence of Stronach also be enough ? Do you have to be a German citizen ? How would you see such an involvement by Stronach, because his party here and AfD are not too far apart it seems ideologically ?

[Tender Branson]

ZDF federal poll

CDU/CSU  40
FDP            4
SPD          28
Green       14
Left            6

This is the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll that RedPrometheus posted just above.

FGW polls for ZDF, Infratest dimap polls for ARD.

[Tender Branson]

New GMS poll for Bayern (Sept. state elections):

47% CSU
20% SPD
13% Greens
  8% FW
  3% FDP
  9% Others

47-41 majority for the CSU.

[Tender Branson]

CSU is now in a nepotism scandal (many CSU MP's employed their wifes/husbands/children etc. over the past years and paid them with taxpayer money). And then there's Uli Hoeneß of course.

[Tender Branson]

Infratest dimap has 2 new Saarland polls out:

FEDERAL



STATE



...

Also:

"Should Saarland remain a state on its own, or should it be merged with Rheinland-Pfalz ?"



by party:



Direct vote for Governor:



http://www.sr-online.de/sronline/nachrichten/politik_wirtschaft/saarlandtrend/saarlandtrend_05_2013_100.html

[Tender Branson]

Latest Baden-Württemberg poll by Infratest dimap:

Is the state moving in the right or wrong direction ?



State election poll:



Federal election poll:



Job Approval Rating of Governor Kretschmann (Greens)



http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/bw/-/id=1622/nid=1622/did=11434254/15uu3n8/index.html

[Tender Branson]

Kretschmann even gets majority approval from CDU-voters:

[Tender Branson]

But as popular as he is, he still can't push the The Greens to first place...

28% for the Greens in a conservative state like BW is still rather huge though ...

And you have to consider that the CDU is very strong at the moment in Germany, so 1st place wouldn't even be possible if more than 80% approved of Kretschmann.

[Tender Branson]

New Hessen state election poll by "dimap" for the Hessen-CDU:

39% CDU
29% SPD
17% Greens
  4% Left
  4% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  3% Others

46-39 majority for SPD/Greens over CDU.

[Tender Branson]

New ARD/Infratest dimap poll:

GERMANY

41% CDU/CSU
27% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
 4% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  4% Others

No majority for CDU/CSU or SPD/Greens. Grand Coalition would be possible.

WESTERN GERMANY

41% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
16% Greens
 4% FDP
  3% Left
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  4% Others

Hypothetical majority for SPD-Greens.

EASTERN GERMANY

39% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
16% Left
  9% Greens
 4% FDP
  3% Pirates
  3% AfD
  4% Others

Hypothetical Grand Coalition would be possible.

[Tender Branson]

New NRW poll by Infratest dimap for WDR:

State election



Federal election



Direct vote for Chancellor



Job approval of the SPD-Green state government



Job approval of leading government politicians



Speed limit of 120 km/h (75 mph) on Highways - Support or Oppose



Speed limit of 120 km/h by gender



http://www1.wdr.de/themen/politik/nrwtrend159.html

[Tender Branson]

Changes in the NRW federal election poll, compared with the 2009 NRW result:

CDU: +7%
SPD: +5.5%
Greens: +3%
FDP: -12%
Left: -5.5%
Pirates: no change
Others: +2%

[Tender Branson]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

[Tender Branson]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

As someone who does not track German politics is there a reasonable explanation for Die Linke's crash in popularity?

Well, first: 2009 was a really good result for the Left (because of Oskar Lafontaine most likely.)

Second: The Left supporters face a demographic problem, they are relatively old and from the East and they die and then they are not replaced with enough young people.

Third: There was a leadership change as far as I know, maybe Lewis or the other German posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

Forsa polled Bayern:

STATE election

46% CSU (+3)
20% SPD (+1)
12% Greens (+3)
  9% FW (-1)
  4% FDP (-4)
  3% Left (-1)
  7% Others

FEDERAL election

49% CSU (+6)
18% SPD (+1)
14% Greens (+3)
  4% FDP (-11)
  3% Left (-4)
12% Others