EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Members of the FPÖ, FN, SD, VB, Lega Nord and the SNS mill meet tomorrow in Vienna for a Far-Right Conference. Maybe someone from the PVV will come too.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/1478347/Europas-Rechte-schmiedet-Allianz-in-Wien

This would make it 7 countries, which is needed to form a Far-Right group in the EP.

Yes, PVV has joined the conference.
Correction: PVV denies that the party took part

Members from 7 countries is one of the requirements, a fraction also has at least 25 members.

How many MEPs would the FN roughly get if the election were held right now and the FN gets 20-25% ?

The FPÖ would get 5 MEPs right now.

[Tender Branson]

I noticed that both Slovenia and Lithuanian is light blue. Slovenia =SNS Lithuania TT?!

Yes.

But the Slovenian SNS is rather weak, don't think they'll get a seat.

And the Lithuanian TT is currently in the EFD group. But who knows, maybe they get out after the election and join the EAF ?

What about the croatian HSP?

The HSP is in the ECR group already. Don't think they will join the EAF.

[Tender Branson]

Strache had a press conference yesterday on the status of the EAF:

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http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/austrian-lawmaker-europes-right-wingers-to-cooperate-in-elections_305725.html

[Tender Branson]

Some news about who will likely lead the Austrian parties into the EU elections next year and there will definitely be some big changes:

* ÖVP (2009 front-runner: Ernst Strasser, convicted of corruption and sentenced to a prison term)

Likely frontrunners are Othmar Karas or Elisabeth Köstinger (both already MEPs):

 

* SPÖ (2009 front-runner: Johannes Swoboda, will retire)

Likely frontrunners are Jörg Leichtfried or Evelyn Regner (both already MEPs):

 

* FPÖ (2009 front-runner: Andreas Mölzer, won't run again as leading candidate)

Likely frontrunners are Barbara Kappel, Franz Obermayr (already an MEP) and Harald Vilimsky:

 

* Greens (2009 front-runner: Ulrike Lunacek, will be the 2014 frontrunner too)



* Hans-Peter Martin:



* NEOS (no frontrunner yet, they will hold online primaries in early 2014)

Likely front-runners are Beate Meinl-Reisinger, Claudia Gamon and Sepp Schellhorn:

 


...

Those are the main parties and lists running.

There might be a few more, but I'll post their candidates later if they qualify for the ballot.

[Tender Branson]

Why in the world would anyone with the name Franziska re-name herself "Ska" instead of "Franzi", or re-name her at all ?

[Tender Branson]

New ÖGfE (Austrian Society for European Politics) poll on likely turnout in the EP elections and the importance of the EP elections:



http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131122_OTS0191/oegfe-schmidt-sechs-monate-vor-europawahl-europaeisches-parlament-staerkt-praesenz-aber-informationsdefizit-weiter-hoch

"Are you going to vote in the EP elections next year ?"

49% definitely
29% likely, yeah
11% unlikely, no
  8% definitely not

It should be noted that the turnout in the 2009 elections was 46%.

History has shown that only those who say "I will definitely vote" will actually go vote (with maybe a small number of the "likely" voters doing so as well).

"Do you think the EP elections are ... than the Austrian Parliamentary elections ?"

11% more important
53% equally important
27% not as important
  6% not at all as important

[Tender Branson]

Angelika Mlinar (right), will likely become the NEOS-frontrunner in the EU elections (if she gets the most votes in the online primary, but that should not be too hard):



She's currently the LIF-leader, but the LIF is now part of the NEOS platform. LIF and NEOS will merge into one party some time next year.

[Tender Branson]

As expected, the Greens elected MEP Ulrike Lunacek as their frontrunner for the EU elections at the Green convention today.

On the 2nd place of the list: Michel Reimon (Green member of the Burgenland state parliament)

On the 3rd place of the list: Monika Vana (Green member of the Vienna state parliament)

Current polling suggests that the Greens will either get 2 or 3 seats in the next EP.

[Tender Branson]

The EU-wide ALDE campaign kick-off for 2014 will be in Vienna btw:

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131129_OTS0180/neos-und-die-alliance-of-liberals-and-democrats-for-europe-alde-nominieren-wien-fuer-den-eu-weiten-wahlauftakt-im-fruehjahr-2014

[Tender Branson]

More leadership news here:

Othmar Karas will be the frontrunner for the ÖVP next year.

This is what the "Kurier" and the "KZ" are reporting today.

Also, SPÖVP have agreed in the coalition talks that Johannes Hahn (ÖVP) will remain in Brüssel for the next legislative period as Austrian EU Commissioner for Regional Matters.

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/oevp-tritt-mit-karas-an-hahn-bleibt-in-bruessel/38.771.519

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/eu/3483758/oevp-geht-nun-doch-karas-eu-wahl.story

This means only SPÖ and FPÖ are still without a frontrunner for the EP elections next year.

Both parties will decide their leading candidate in Jan./Feb.

[Tender Branson]

New EP elections poll for Austria by Karmasin for Profil magazine:

26% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
12% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% H.P. Martin
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  1% Young Liberals
  4% Others

http://www.profil.at/articles/1349/980/370398/umfrage-oevp-eu-wahl-partei

Don't know exactly why they asked for the "Young Liberals" ... The YL are part of NEOS and will not run on their own list.

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll for the EP elections:

26% ÖVP [-4]
21% FPÖ [+8]
20% SPÖ [-4]
13% Greens [+3]
10% NEOS [+10]
  5% Martin [-13]
  2% TS [+2]
  3% Others

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/4174979/file

[Tender Branson]

Strache is currently in the process of finding another 4 parties for the EAF coalition next year:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/14/us-europe-right-austria-idUSBRE9BD0DD20131214

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[Tender Branson]

Ewald Stadler (the ex-FPÖ, ex-BZÖ, very far-right MEP) will run with his own list in the EP elections.

This will splinter the protest vote even more next year (FPÖ, TS, BZÖ, Stadler, Martin, Ehrenhauser maybe) ...

Maybe the FPÖ won't get 20% after all.

http://derstandard.at/1385171691090/Ewald-Stadler-kandidiert-mit-eigener-Liste

[Tender Branson]

KPÖ, Pirates, Der Wandel and Martin Ehrenhauser (ex-Martin MEP) are currently talking about a joint leftist EP list.

http://oe1.orf.at/artikel/361140

Team Stronach might not run, because Frank Stronach has enough of politics and said that "no further money will go to the party".

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for the EP elections:



Link

[Tender Branson]

How come the ÖVP do so well in the EU elections? (Compared to their national result)

Hmm, maybe because the FPÖ and the Greens attract a few usually SPÖ-leaning voters who are disappointed with the national government ?

We need to wait if NEOS has a similar impact on the ÖVP.

But 24% here is not really "doing well" compared with the national elections, when they also got 24%.

Also, the People's Party generally seems to do well in the European countries in the EP elections, even thought the SPÖ actually won the 1999 and 2004 elections. I think the SPÖ didn't win in 2009, because of the Martin voters (even though I have to check the exit poll).

[Tender Branson]

How come the ÖVP do so well in the EU elections? (Compared to their national result)

Hmm, maybe because the FPÖ and the Greens attract a few usually SPÖ-leaning voters who are disappointed with the national government ?

We need to wait if NEOS has a similar impact on the ÖVP.

But 24% here is not really "doing well" compared with the national elections, when they also got 24%.

Also, the People's Party generally seems to do well in the European countries in the EP elections, even thought the SPÖ actually won the 1999 and 2004 elections. I think the SPÖ didn't win in 2009, because of the Martin voters (even though I have to check the exit poll).

Well, no, but in the last EP election they got 30% according to the poll. That seems pretty strong to me, compared to how they fared in national elections that same year.

Likely some BZÖ voters coming back to the ÖVP after the death of Haider too.

[Tender Branson]

Which Europarty will NEOS join?  EPP?  ALDE?

NEOS is already part of ALDE.

[Tender Branson]

Ewald Stadler (the ex-FPÖ, ex-BZÖ, very far-right MEP) will run with his own list in the EP elections.

This will splinter the protest vote even more next year (FPÖ, TS, BZÖ, Stadler, Martin, Ehrenhauser maybe) ...

Maybe the FPÖ won't get 20% after all.

http://derstandard.at/1385171691090/Ewald-Stadler-kandidiert-mit-eigener-Liste

Stadler's party will be called REKOS, he said in the party-launching press conference today.

REKOS is short for "Reform Conservatives".

His list will be supported by the CPÖ (Christian Party of Austria).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

www.rekos.at

[Tender Branson]

I hope he gets 3.99% and the FPÖ 18% instead of 22% ...

[Tender Branson]

If elected, Stadler would likely join the ECR group in the EP:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Stadler-tritt-mit-der-Christen-Partei-an/125713741

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He said that he wants to work together with the UK Tories and the Polish PiS party, with which he has a lot in common.

For example to block the Estrela report on abortions as a human right which he finds unacceptable.

[Tender Branson]

New EP elections poll here (Oekonsult for the Bezirksblätter):

23.2% ÖVP (-7)
22.7% FPÖ (+10)
21.7% SPÖ (-2)
15.8% Greens (+6)
10.8% NEOS (+11)
  2.5% Martin (-15)
  2.0% TS (+2)
  1.5% BZÖ (-3)

http://www.meinbezirk.at/wien-01-innere-stadt/politik/eu-skeptiker-dominieren-m5565930,786740.html

Turnout is projected to be epically low in this poll: 20% will vote, 47% will not vote - with the rest undecided.

[Tender Branson]

* FPÖ (2009 front-runner: Andreas Mölzer, won't run again as leading candidate)

Likely frontrunners are Barbara Kappel, Franz Obermayr (already an MEP) and Harald Vilimsky:

 

Apparently, these reports were not correct:

Mölzer will not retire after all, but in fact lead the FPÖ once again into the elections.



Vilimsky will be 2nd on the list.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1513605/Vilimsky_Straches-Mann-furs-Grobe-geht-nach-Brussel

[Tender Branson]

I'm doing a chart soon that shows the eligible voters in each country, the total votes cast and the turnout in each EU country + the EU itself for the 2009 elections as a base for this election.