Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

My memory was wrong: NRW'06 saw as strongest party in the 121 districts: 59 SPÖ, 59 ÖVP, 3 GREENS. So it was even quite equal, yet Rust were (nearly) a rotten borough.

2013 was 56 SPÖ, 50 ÖVP, 7 Greens and 4 FPÖ.

The SPÖ won 4 more districts outright than it won in the PR system, with the ÖVP 3 more.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is now close to 30% in the latest Unique Research poll for "Profil" magazine:

29% FPÖ (+8.5%)
25% SPÖ (-1.8%)
19% ÖVP (-5.0%)
13% Greens (+0.6%)
10% NEOS (+5.0%)
  2% TS (-3.7%)
  2% Others (-3.6%)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

20% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-Incumbent)
19% Heinz Christian Strache (FPÖ)
14% Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP)
  9% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  6% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
  3% Kathrin Nachbaur (TS)
29% Other/None of these candidates

"Do you think Austria is currently granting too many people asylum ?"

40% Yes
40% The current numbers (ca. 20.000 each year) are OK
16% Austria should grant more people asylum
  4% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140809_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-fpoe-weiter-nummer-eins-oevp-nur-noch-19

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is now close to 30% in the latest Unique Research poll for "Profil" magazine:

29% FPÖ (+8.5%)
25% SPÖ (-1.8%)
19% ÖVP (-5.0%)
13% Greens (+0.6%)
10% NEOS (+5.0%)
  2% TS (-3.7%)
  2% Others (-3.6%)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

20% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-Incumbent)
19% Heinz Christian Strache (FPÖ)
14% Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP)
  9% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  6% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
  3% Kathrin Nachbaur (TS)
29% Other/None of these candidates

"Do you think Austria is currently granting too many people asylum ?"

40% Yes
40% The current numbers (ca. 20.000 each year) are OK
16% Austria should grant more people asylum
  4% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140809_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-fpoe-weiter-nummer-eins-oevp-nur-noch-19

BTW:

The last time the FPÖ polled above 30% was in December 1999 and January 2000 - during the time after the 1999 federal election (in which the FPÖ got 27%) and the formation of the ÖVP/FPÖ government under Schüssel.

After the government was formed and Schüssel became Chancellor, with Haider renouncing the Chancellor post in favor of staying Governor of Carinthia, the massive weekly protests against the new right-wing government and the EU-sanctions against Austria, the FPÖ started to drop in the polls towards 20%.

[Tender Branson]

Since both TS and BZÖ is fading away should not FPÖ have more than 30%?!

FPÖ+TS+BZÖ got slightly less than 30% last year.

Now, FPÖ+TS have 29-31% - depending on the poll (BZÖ likely has 1% or so).

Which means that the FPÖ has sucked up most of what TS and BZÖ have lost.

I think that if the 2 parties would not exist anymore, the FPÖ would move to 30+ easily in the current political climate. But right now, TS+BZÖ are still attracting some 3% that the FPÖ is missing. The FPÖ could still get 30%+ though soon, but it's definitely harder with TS+BZÖ still around.

Will it be Grüne or NEOS who joins the guvernment after the nex elections?

Don't know, too early.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna (2015) state election poll by Gallup for Ö24:

38% SPÖ (-6)
25% FPÖ (-1)
13% Greens (nc)
12% ÖVP (-2)
  9% NEOS (+9)
  3% Others (nc)

Recently, the ORF decided that the Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Vienna next year.

Actually, Innsbruck and Graz had the better concepts (Innsbruck even offered to pay all the costs that might come up for hosting the event) - but the "red" ORF decided it should be in Vienna (of course to the pleasure of the influential "red" Vienna mayor Michael Häupl from the SPÖ).

Ö24 now speculates that Häupl could call the state election for June 2015, instead of October - so that the SPÖ can benefit from the Song Contest.

[Tender Branson]

That and the fact that people outside Austria have actually heard of Vienna. Probably most people from elsewhere in Europe think that Salzburg is Austria's second largest city...

True. Most foreign people probably know Salzburg best, followed by Innsbruck (older people, because of the Olympics).

In fact, Graz is the 2nd largest city though. Linz is probably not well known either.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the political summer break more or less ends with the start of the ORF "summer interviews" of party leaders.

Each week, one party leader will discuss recent topics at the ORF studio in front of an audience.

Today, Matthias Strolz (NEOS) will be first.

In 5 weeks, the Vorarlberg state election takes place in which the dominant ÖVP will almost definitely lose its absolute majority and NEOS is projected to do well (unless the ÖVP manages to portray them as naive newcomers).

Considering that Strolz himself is from Vorarlberg, he will certainly use the interview as a "campaign-kickoff" and portray the federal SPÖVP government as not reform-minded, stagnant or simply incompetent.

The current federal SPÖVP government is so toxic at the moment (because of the HYPO debacle winddown and the asylum back-and-forth) that the Vorarlberg parties have virtually called on major federal politicians to stay out of the state until after the elections next month, so that they are not campaigning there and hurt the local party chances there even more ...

[Tender Branson]

Some news about the BZÖ:



After the party got just 3.5% in the federal election last year (4% threshold) and only 0.5% in the EU elections, the party launched a "reform process".

The first stage of the "reform process" included a poll among party members, the results became known today (and they are quite interesting):

87% want the party to continue
84% want a radical administration reform that finances a broad tax cut
80% oppose the legalisation of "soft drugs" (11% are in favour)
79% support tuition fees for university students
73% support strengthening "traditional family forms"
71% support staying in the EU (29% want to get out)
69% want to abolish the office of the Austrian President (or merge it with the Chancellor post)
68% support some form of euthanasia (active or passive)
68% want the party to keep its name
67% want the party to embrace new ideas
64% favor municipality mergers to cut costs
61% oppose a general smoking ban
56% want to remain in the Euro-area (35% want to get out)
56% want a wealth-tax (34% opposed) (The BZÖ opposed the SPÖ-wealth tax in the 2013 campaign)
55% support the current conscription system over a professional army (39% for the PA)
54% support more rights of divorced fathers
40% favor a comprehensive all-day school form (42% opposed)
30% want more rights for patchwork families
22% want marriage-equality for LGBT-people
14% want adoption rights for LGBT-people
  4% support NATO-membership

The party will then hold a "reform/party re-launch convention" in late October and present a new party program based on the poll of party members.

http://derstandard.at/2000004362748/BZOe-Basis-will-Weiterbestand-mit-Neuausrichtung

[Tender Branson]

And now the irony:

22% want marriage-equality for LGBT-people
14% want adoption rights for LGBT-people

The current BZÖ-leader is a gay man, living in a registered civil-union.



(it's not known yet if there'll be a leadership election too in the Oct. convention)

[Tender Branson]

After the recent shocking cancer-death of the SPÖ's Barbara Prammer (President of the Austrian Parliament, mentioned before her death as candidate for Austrian President in 2016), the SPÖ is now looking for a new Parliamentary President.

The SPÖ has said it will be a woman once again.

The top names mentioned are:

* Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek (52) - currently the Austrian minister for education and women
* Doris Bures (52) - currently the Austrian minister for transport, traffic and innovation
* Nurten Yilmaz (56) - would be the first Austrian Parliament President of Turkish origin
* Christine Muttonen (60) - teacher and MP since 1999 (quite left-wing within the SPÖ)
* Andrea Kuntzl (56) - MP since 1999 and SPÖ's science/higher education-speaker
* Sabine Oberhauser (50) - doctor and unionist

http://derstandard.at/2000004347413/SPOe-sucht-Kandidatin-fuer-ein-bedeutsames-Amt

The first two are the most likely to succeed Prammer, Yilmaz is unlikely because Faymann probably won't risk a polarizing nominee with her.

My favorite is Muttonen (she has a Finnish-sounding last name, but I don't know if she's of Finnish origin or if she married a Finn, or if some of her ancestors were Finnish).



Anyway, she's a strong supporter of nuclear disarmament, wants to ban imports from Israeli-occupied areas and wants a stronger social dimension in the EU (for example she wants an introduction of Maastricht-style caps on poverty and unemployment rates: countries would be punished if they fail to reduce unemployment/poverty under a set threshold).

[Tender Branson]

Major flop for the new Socialist Youth leader:

Julia Herr and her SJ recently launched a campaign to legalize cannabis use in Austria and demanded that Justice Minister Böhmdorfer (sic) and Health Minister Stöger find a way to introduce it.

Too bad that Böhmdorfer is not the current Justice Minister (he was Justice Minister for the FPÖ 10 years ago) ...

LOL.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/488350/Politik-skurril_Jusos-verwechseln-Minister

The Austrian Socialist Youth (SJ) has elected a woman as its leader for the first time in 120 years:



Julia Herr (21 years old), which means she's also the youngest leader ever.

The Socialist Youth is the much more leftist, activist and radical youth-organisation of the SPÖ, who wants the SPÖ to quit the Grand Coalition with the ÖVP.

http://derstandard.at/1397522524278/Mit-Frau-Herr-in-den-Kampf-gegen-die-Koalition

[Tender Branson]

CARINTHIA: A so far (to me) unknown "Institute for Applied Politologies, Hall/Tyrol" made a poll for the "Kurier" (n=500): SPÖ 43 (+6), ÖVP 17 (+2.5), FPÖ 16 (-1), GREENS 13 (+1), NEOS 4 (+4), STRONACH 4 (-7), BZÖ 2 (-4.5), OTHERS 1.

These numbers don't make much sense: The FPÖ-Carinthia has already bottomed out much earlier and is certainly on the upswing again (see EU-election result), considering their current favorable national polling.

The SPÖ-poll result seems way too high, even for the "new Carinthia". NEOS seems too low, while the ÖVP-result is too high.

The other results look mostly ok. Probably an outlier from an untested pollster.

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the "Krone":



http://www.krone.at/Politik/Faymann-SPOe_in_Umfrage_wieder_auf_Platz_eins-Strache_Zweiter-Story-415857

A small bump for the SPÖ after Prammer's death, or just a bad poll ?

I think bad poll is more likely, IMAS is not the best pollster.

[Tender Branson]

4 problems with this poll:

* conducted for the Greens by an unknown company
* sample size is only 300
* poll was done in June/July, which makes it meaningless
* the results look weird

[Tender Branson]

New Vorarlberg state election poll (meinungsraum.at/NEWS magazine, sample = 623, online poll, MoE = +/- 3.9%, conducted between August 7-18):



ÖVP loses 12% relative to the 2009 state election (and its absolute majority), while the FPÖ remains relatively stable.

Greens gain slightly more than 4% and NEOS gains 10% support out of nowhere.

The SPÖ is heading for another debacle, with the poll showing them even below the 10% threshold (LOL).

Other parties have no chance.

Depending if you see NEOS as left or right, the total percentage for the Right is either 74% or 64%.

[Tender Branson]

With 1 month to go, the state election campaign in Vorarlberg starts.



Vorarlberg is the only Austrian state that basically has no debt (well, they have 100 Mio. € in debt, but also some 100 Mio. € in reserve funds - which cancels out the debt).

The federal SPÖVP government is currently extremely unpopular, especially the federal ÖVP (19% in the last polls, but the Vbg.-ÖVP has to defend 51% from the last state election).

Therefore, the state's ÖVP is doing all they can to hide that they are the "ÖVP" (the Austrian People's Party), and rather portrays themselves as "Vorarlberg People's Party".

The campaign posters also feature the new young Governor Markus Wallner a lot (the party thinks they will benefit from the "Governor-bonus" in the election and the fact that the state has a solid economy and no debt).

That's also why the election posters say "Vote Wallner !", instead of the usual "ÖVP" and a box with a cross next to it.

The posters also take aim at NEOS: the first poster below says "Our water. In our own hands." (NEOS during the EU-campaign argued that the well-running public water/waste management in Austria should be privatized, a major fumble which led to their decline).

Here are the posters:

v "Our water. In our own hands."



v "First and foremost: Secure jobs (or work)."



v "First and foremost: Secure jobs (or work)."



v "First and foremost: Relieve families."



v "Good schools. Secure jobs."



v "First and foremost: Stay independent."



v "First and foremost: Relieve families."

[Tender Branson]

In little over a week the European Council will have another meeting, and try to decide on, among other things, the new President of European Council. There has been a lot of talk about Helle Thorning-Schmidt in Denmark, but I wondered whether Werner Faymann could not be a quite likely candidate? If Georgieva or another centre-right figure gets the HR post, then a Social Democrat will probably get the European Council post. There are not that many Social Democrat PMs right now, which narrows the field a lot. Unlike HTS, Faymann has governed with the EPP for a long time and comes from a Eurozone country. Furthermore, he seems a bit like a van Rompuy-type personality who is not making a lot of fuss about himself. The European Voice writes:"shortly after he came to power, Ursula Plassnik, the then foreign minister, called him a “man without a character”. A newspaper editorial at the time wrote, “Despite 30 years in politics, Werner Faymann remains a completely blank page.”".

So I would like to know whether this is something which is talked about as possibility in Austria? and which things could count against him? I imagine some Southern countries might see him as Mini-German from a country with strict financial policies, but that could be said about HTS as well. Who will be most likely to take over if Faymann becomes the next president of the European Council?

Like Georg said: You are really the first in- and outside of Austria to mention such a possibility.

Faymann isn't going anywhere. He rather prefers to smile the whole day ("Smiley-Chancellor") and remain somewhere in the background. Just not touch hot issues ! ("Teflon-Chancellor").

The last thing the EU needs is Faymann and his Entfesselungskünstler-colleague Spindelegger.

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-SPÖ (polling at 9%) has decided to forego a poster-campaign and instead launched a campaign with 20.000 garden gnomes:



The gnomes have signs with: "Vote for Ritsch" (the SPÖ-frontrunner).

A fitting campaign for a gnome-party like the Vbg-SPÖ ...

[Tender Branson]

A new OGM/APA trust rating poll out today shows that Vorarlberg's Governor Markus Wallner (ÖVP) is the most trusted politician in the state with a 60+ rating.

That is relatively good news for the Governor and the ÖVP.

I also read that the Vbg.-NEOS only have an election budget of 50.000€, instead of the 200.000€ that were planned.

All this plays into the hands of the ÖVP, which might as well end up with 42% and NEOS only at 7-8%.

[Tender Branson]

Like Georg said: You are really the first in- and outside of Austria to mention such a possibility.

Faymann isn't going anywhere. He rather prefers to smile the whole day ("Smiley-Chancellor") and remain somewhere in the background. Just not touch hot issues ! ("Teflon-Chancellor").

The last thing the EU needs is Faymann and his Entfesselungskünstler-colleague Spindelegger.

OK, I just thought that these are the exact "qualities" looked for in a president for the European Council. Someone who doesn't overshadow the egos of the heads of state and government. Someone who likes to remain in the background sounds a lot like van Rompuy about whom it was said that he "opens his mouth only to breathe". But I guess if he were a possibility, there would have been at certain degree of talks about the possibility in the media.

I still think he prefers to remain as Austrian PM, despite having all these qualities that a PotEC probably needs to have.

There's also a recent indicator as to why I think so:

A few days ago, the SPÖ announced a small cabinet re-shuffle (posted above in the thread somewhere), in which the Faymann-SPÖ moved another Unionist into a cabinet post (Health).

Also today, the Faymann-SPÖ announced that another Unionist will take the seat of Barbara Prammer (who recently died) in the Parliament.

http://derstandard.at/2000004650341/SPOe-Mandat-Walter-Schopf-setzt-sich-gegen-Sonja-Ablinger-durch

All this is important, because the SPÖ has a party convention in November with a leadership vote, in which Faymann aims for a good result (last time around he only got 83% of the delegates, which was more or less a debacle).

By moving some unionists to cabinet/MP posts, Faymann will have the backing of the influential unions at the convention (he also ok'd Doris Bures from the influential Vienna-SPÖ as the new Parliamentary President, which was previously also held by Prammer).

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-NEOS launched their first poster wave (like expected, Austrian-NEOS leader Matthias Strolz is featured on one of these, because the local candidate is still too unknown. Strolz is also a native Vorarlberger):



The poster says something like "Implement change." when translated into English.

Notice how Strolz moves away a black chair (black is the colour for the ÖVP).

2 other examples:

 

Left: "Strengthen/ing small-businesses."
Right: "Taxes down. Bureaucracy out. Transparency in."

[Tender Branson]

68% support some form of euthanasia (active or passive)

Is it weird that I find this sort of shocking? Especially in light of the member's views on LGBT rights and traditional family?

There is a consensus in the Austrian population when it comes to legalizing some form of euthanasia for terminally sick people: Some 60-75% (depending on the poll) of Austrians support it (which is actually much more progressive than what MPs want: The ÖVP even wants a constitutional ban on euthanasia, pressure from the SPÖ has watered this down and SPÖVP has now agreed to set up a commission to deal with this issue).

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:



New 2016 Presidential poll:



Gallup polled the most likely candidates at this point for each party, but once again no candidate for NEOS.

The Green ex-party leader Van der Bellen once again polls strongly (but would probably be in a dead-heat with Bures if a NEOS-candidate runs too).

The FPÖ is a non-factor in a Presidential election.

The approval ratings of party leaders shows that NEOS-leader Strolz remains the most popular one:



The balance of postive/negative opinion of cabinet members + federal President shows that Sebastian Kurz is by far the most popular cabinet member:



His +57 rating would point to something like a 75% favorable rating (minus some 18% unfavorable).

I wonder what %age the ÖVP would currently have if Kurz would be their leader instead of the unpopular (and current Finance-Minister) Spindelegger ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Hofburg-Wahl-spannend-wie-nie/155275755

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-SPÖ (polling at 9%) has decided to forego a poster-campaign and instead launched a campaign with 20.000 garden gnomes:



The gnomes have signs with: "Vote for Ritsch" (the SPÖ-frontrunner).

A fitting campaign for a gnome-party like the Vbg-SPÖ ...

LULZ:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28923234

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING: Spindelegger steps down as ÖVP leader, Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor.