Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

New developments in the Presidential race:

* Van der Bellen (Greens) said in an interview today that he would not swear in the FPÖ - even if they had an absolute majority after the next election.

* Griss (Indy) meanwhile said she would step down as President, if there's a government she didn't like (for example one that wants to exit the EU or has a problem with democratic institutions).

http://orf.at/#/stories/2326961

[Tender Branson]

I'm basically only interested in the St. Johann results, because this is where my brother lives.

St. Johann has around 10.000 people and was recently in the news because the BMI (Ministry of Interior) wanted to settle 200-400 asylum seekers in the city in an army barracks near where my brother lives.

[Tender Branson]

Cranberry's small home town just reported its results.

Massive ÖVP win.

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol is now fully counted.

As expected, the ÖVP (+lists) remains the dominant force in the 277 towns.

The FPÖ did relatively well in the big cities, mostly doubling or tripling their percentages there from 7-8% to around 20-22% - like in Kufstein, Wörgl, Hall, St. Johann, Schwaz etc.

But they only managed to pick up 1 mayor, out of 277. Their incumbent mayor has to go into the runoff in 2 weeks.

It seems the SPÖ lost a bit and the Greens gained slightly.

Of course, this is hard to say because there's no statewide result (because Tyrol has an abnormally high amount of "independent" lists).

https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/gemeinderats_und_buergermeisterwahlen_2016/index.html

https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/gemeinderats_und_buergermeisterwahlen_2016/liste_statistik_auszaehlung_land_tirol.html

Turnout by town:

http://orf.at/wahl/tirol16/#analysis

[Tender Branson]

According to the TT newspaper, there are 30 new mayors and 23 runoffs in 2 weeks.

224 mayors were re-elected today (actually 225 incl. Gramais, which had no election -> see above).

[Tender Branson]

A rare poll out of Carinthia by SORA (which is the "exit pollster" in Austrian elections):

39% SPÖ (+2% compared with 2013 state election)
26% FPÖ (+9%)
14% ÖVP (n.c.)
13% Greens (+1%)
  5% NEOS (+5%)
  2% TS (-9%)
  1% BZÖ (-5%)

http://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/kleinparteien-fehlt-die-one-man-show/184.300.921

[Tender Branson]

NEOS endorses Irmgard Griss over VdB:

http://derstandard.at/2000032315513-1362108118731/Bundespraesidentenwahl-Neos-aeussern-klare-Praeferenz-fuer-Griss

[Tender Branson]

Presidential candidate Richard Lugner (our version of Trump, just without the racism and xenophobia) is luring people with free cinema tickets, so they sign one of the 6.000 petitions he needs to be on the ballot.

Of course, vote buying in the actual election is illegal - but the election law doesn't really say if the same is true for getting enough signatures to be on the ballot ...

Lugner said he's within the law and has consulted an attorney before he started the campaign. He also said that he's doing nothing other than what the main party machines are doing: They are also spending money to send out their activists to try and get people to sign ballot petitions.



http://derstandard.at/2000032128199/Kinogutschein-fuer-Lugner-Unterstuetzung-koennte-strafbar-sein

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (Indy) is the first presidential candidate to submit enough signatures to be on the ballot.

6.000 signatures were needed and she submitted 7.851 today (saying her campaign team will collect more and likely over 10.000)



http://derstandard.at/2000032499827/Griss-uebergibt-erforderliche-Unterstuetzungserklaerungen

This is significant, because Griss (a former Austrian Supreme Court President and judge) has no party machine behind her.

She also submitted them waaaay ahead of the March 18 deadline and also endorsed Hillary Clinton for President today.

I'm likely to vote for her in the Presidential election next month.

[Tender Branson]

According to political website neuwal.com, Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) is the second candidate that has collected more than the 6.000 signatures that are needed to be on the Presidential ballot.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (Presidential race, runoff scenarios and federal election):

[Tender Branson]

Roughly 6 weeks before the election, the ÖVP launches the first poster campaign for Khol:



"Experience is strength."

"In tough times: relying on the strengths of our country."

"Dr. Andreas Khol - Strengthening Austria."

[Tender Branson]

This is going to be an interesting election. What explains the popularity of Alexander vdB ?

Yes, the closest/most competetive election since 1992 (incl. a potentially close runoff).

VdB is a good, forceful debater - slightly excentric - which makes him likeable beyond the Green Party base to many centrist ÖVP, SPÖ, NEOS-voters.

Also, the SPÖ has lost the young vote to the Greens and FPÖ and there are many of them in the urban, suburban areas who are going to vote for VdB over Hundstorfer (who's fighting with Khol for the retired folk).

[Tender Branson]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Next Friday, the deadline for candidate signatures ends and we'll know who's on the ballot.

Then the ballots will be printed and sent to voters in early April.

[Tender Branson]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Why are you not going to vote at a polling station?

Because I virtually always vote by post.

[Tender Branson]

I have just requested my postal ballot online.

Why are you not going to vote at a polling station?

Because I virtually always vote by post.

Hmm, okay. This doesn't exist in the Netherlands, only for people living abroad. I like voting to "feel" a bit special, so I always like going to the polling station and voting there. Also, how can you be sure it arrives?  I wouldn't feel sure about that.

In general, the Austrian Post is not incompetent - so it will almost definitely arrive at the district election commission.

Also, considering Zell am See is also the place of the district election commission, I could also drop off the postal ballot there at some point myself - when I go shopping for example.

In effect, it doesn't really matter if you vote in person or by mail.

[Tender Branson]

The only thing that would make me go back to precinct voting is the fact that absentee ballots are not counted on the municipal level, just at the district level.

Which means (in the worst case), if for example 100% of people vote by mail - we are not getting any municipal results ... (except for the few cities that are districts themselves).

Of course, the election law could be amended so that the absentees are counted on the municipal level (like it is done in state elections) - so everything would be fine again ...

[Tender Branson]

Signature updates (deadline for the 6.000 is on Friday):

* Griss (Indy): has already collected 10.000+
* Hofer (FPÖ): has collected more than 6.000 already
* Khol (ÖVP): has more than 13.000 from the Lower Austria-ÖVP alone
* Hundstorfer (SPÖ): unknown
* Van der Bellen (Greens): unknown
* Awadalla (Indy, backed by KPÖ): more than 4.000 as of last week
* Lugner (Indy): around 3.500 as of last week
* Marschall (EU-Exit Party): unknown
* Luxemburg-Wellenstein (Indy): around 3.600 as of last week

[Tender Branson]

After the ÖVP, the FPÖ has now presented their first Presidential election poster for Hofer:



"Rise up for Austria: Your homeland needs you now."

"Norbert Hofer - President"

...

Apparently, "rise up" is a reference to Hofer's paragliding accident about 10 years ago after which he was almost paralyzed and since then needs a stick to walk. He "rose up" again and managed to get on with his life.

Kinda weird that there's no FPÖ logo on that poster. Hofer only has a 40% name recognition right now and the party is much more "popular" and well-known than Hofer himself.

[Tender Branson]

Elfriede Awadalla (Indy, backed by KPÖ) apparently has 5.300 signatures already and is just short by 700 signatures.

It looks like she could be on the ballot after all, with the deadline approaching on Friday at 5pm.

The federal election commission will then check if every candidate has collected at least 6.000 signatures and if they are valid.

Meanwhile, Van der Bellen (Greens) has announced he has more than 14.000 signatures.

We will know next Thursday who's on the ballot.

Candidates will be ranked alphabetically on the ballot, based on their last name - which means Awadalla would be first and Van der Bellen last.

http://derstandard.at/2000033027405/Praesidentenwahl-Bis-Dienstag-koennen-Unterschriften-nachgesammelt-werden

[Tender Branson]

Looks like both Awadalla and Lugner are falling short by a few hundred signatures and they won't appear on the Presidential ballot ...

[Tender Branson]

A few additional points to aross:

* Both Marschall and Lugner only submitted their official statements of candidacy on Friday. But not 6.000 or more signatures ! For this, they'll have time until Tuesday at midnight. The other 5 candidates all have submitted their signatures already and will be on the ballot.

* There will be 6.380.605 eligible voters for the Presidential election, which for the first time means a declining number of eligible voters. Compared with the 2013 federal election, the number of eligible voters is down by about 3.700 people. This can be explained with the fact that the number of Austrian citizens is going down for several years now already. Austria's population only grows because of foreigners anymore ...

* A new federal elections poll is out from Unique Research for Profil magazine:

32% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
14% Greens
  6% NEOS

[Tender Branson]

Not just Donald Trump gets his protesters, but also Presidential candidate Norbert Hofer (FPÖ):

In the second-largest city Graz, 3 unknown men blemished hundreds of huge campaign posters from the FPÖ's candidate (I posted them above).

Or as the police wrote in their report: "Three unknown men blemished the campaign posters with a characteristic beard of an already-dead dictator, using black paint."

http://derstandard.at/2000033178188/Plakate-von-FPOe-Kandidat-Hofer-mit-Hitler-Bart-beschmiert

[Tender Branson]

The 1st round of the Presidential election will be very interesting because all 5 major candidates will get around 20% (assuming Lugner and Marschall are not making the ballot).

This would be good for comparisons about how well/bad candidates do in certain areas of the country, using maps.

* Van der Bellen (Greens) for example should have his strongholds in the big cities and suburbs and will do badly in the rural areas.

* Hofer (FPÖ) should do well in Styria and Upper Austria.

* Griss (Indy), as the centrist/non-radical option for protest voters, should do well in the West, Vienna and Styria and the suburbs.

* Hundstorfer (SPÖ) will do well in working-class areas of Vienna and other bigger cities, but that's about it for him and he'll get destroyed in the rural areas.

* Khol (ÖVP) should do well in rural, arch-conservative areas in Tyrol, Upper- and Lower Austria and South-Eastern Styria, but will get destroyed in rural/suburban areas.

[Tender Branson]

derstandard.at is out with a new "Market" poll for President, but unfortunately their writeup of the poll sucks. They only provide "raw data" with leaners among those who are still undecided.

Of those polled, 70% indicate a candidate preference and 30% are still undecided.

Of the decided, VdB/Griss/Hofer all get 17%, Hundstorfer 8%, Khol 6% and Lugner 5%.

The 30% undecided were then asked which candidate they are leaning towards and VdB got 14% of them, 10% Hundstorfer, 5% each for Griss and Lugner, 4% for Khol and 2% for Hofer.

According to my calculation that means the number of decided voters rises to 82% and 18% remain undecided.

The topline result would then be (using the 82% decided as 100%):

25.9% Van der Bellen
22.6% Griss
21.5% Hofer
13.4% Hundstorfer
  8.8% Khol
  7.9% Lugner

http://derstandard.at/2000033280555/Griss-gilt-am-ehesten-als-Bundespraesidentin-fuer-alle

Voters also see Griss as the "most presidential candidate":

47-27       presidential - Griss
40-43 not presidential - VdB
36-41 not presidential - Hundstorfer
31-43 not presidential - Khol
26-49 not presidential - Hofer
14-66 not presidential - Lugner