Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen (Greens) releases 1st poster campaign:



"Elect Van der Bellen. Believe in AUSTRIA."



"Elect Van der Bellen. WE all together."



"Elect Van der Bellen. Our HOMELAND needs cohesion/solidarity/coherence."



"Elect Van der Bellen. BRAVE/COURAGEOUSLY into the new times."

[Tender Branson]

In other news, a lesbian couple from Upper Austria has challenged the Austrian civil union law in the highest state court today, arguing that the current law is discriminating against their daughter who grows up as an illegitimate child.



The judge was very sympathetic to their cause and a ruling is expected in some weeks. If the judge rules in favour, the state of Upper Austria would have to legalize full marriage for LGBTs.

It is the same couple who challenged the Austrian adoption law and which led to Austrian courts legalizing full adoption rights for LGBTs not long ago.

http://www.nachrichten.at/oberoesterreich/Lesbisches-Paar-will-Ehe-Verbot-fuer-Homosexuelle-kippen;art4,2182277

Excellent news ! I hope the judge has the balls to legalize it.

[Tender Branson]

So what exactly are the candidate positions on gay marriage ?

Van der Bellen (Greens) fully supports it
Griss (Indy) fully supports it
Hundstorfer (SPÖ) fully supports it

Khol (ÖVP): more or less supports it, saying "no LGBT person should be discriminated against"

Hofer (FPÖ) opposes marriage and adoption rights

[Tender Branson]

The deadline for presidential signatures has ended yesterday and the following persons will be on the ballot, the federal election commission announced today after checking all signatures:

(ranked by ballot order => alphabetically)

* Dr. Irmgard Griss (Indy)

* Ing. Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

* Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)

* Dr. Andreas Khol (ÖVP)

* Ing. Richard Lugner (Indy)

* Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160323_OTS0095/bundespraesidentenwahl-2016-sechs-kandidatinnen-haben-ausreichend-unterstuetzungserklaerungen-abgegeben

[Tender Branson]

The fact that Lugner (our version of Donald Trump, just not xenophobic) made it onto the ballot at the last possible moment is bad news for FPÖ Hofer's chances to reach the runoff.

Lugner, who refers to himself as a "punchinello", is an anti-establishment candidate and if he attracts even just 3-5%, it might be the voters that Hofer would need for the run-off. Lugner-voters are basically 90-95% potential FPÖ-voters ...



http://lugner.at/lugner_for_president.html

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (which I will vote for), recently visited the Austrian Muslim Youth to debate with them, the first (and only) candidate to do so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtJranCRPds

Looked like a good debate and it seems the young Muslim voters really liked her.

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll, conducted for the Griss campaign (n=1019, MoE = +/- 3.1%):

26% VdB (Greens)
22% Hofer (FPÖ)
20% Griss (Indy)
19% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
10% Khol (ÖVP)
  3% Others (*candidate Lugner was not asked yet)

A total of 66% say that they will "definitely vote" in the presidential election.

Among this group of "very likely voters", the results are slightly different:

29% VdB (Greens)
21% Hofer (FPÖ)
19% Griss (Indy)
17% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
11% Khol (ÖVP)
  3% Others (*candidate Lugner was not asked yet)

OGM also polled run-off matchups for Griss:

45-33 Griss vs. VdB
52-26 Griss vs. Hofer
48-30 Griss vs. Hundstorfer
52-20 Griss vs. Khol

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4952632/Stichwahl-Van-der-Bellen-vs-Hofer

[Tender Branson]

Just 1 month to go until the presidential election !

Hundstorfer (SPÖ) out with a first poster campaign:



"With security. Always for us."
"Hundstorfer 2016 - The connecting force."

... but "with security" cannot be translated literally here. It means more like "definitely" or "certainly".

So more like: "Definitely. Always for us."

or "Reassuringly. Always for us."

[Tender Branson]

Is that woman to his right Mikl-Leitner?

Hard to say, but I guess not ...

[Tender Branson]

3 new Presidential polls, all conducted over the last days:

SORA (for the ORF)



Spectra (for the ORF)



Gallup (for Ö24)

[Tender Branson]

What are Griss's positions and how is she different from the other candidates?

She's socially center-left on most issues and centrist/constitutional on most state-related issues (such as immigration, asylum, defence etc.) as well as being pro-EU.

Other than being the only woman in the field, she's different from other candidates in the sense that she's fully independent from parties. As a former Supreme Court judge and president, she also led the HYPO bad bank investigation committee (which was set up by SPÖVP). But instead of reporting "favourably" about SPÖVP's role in this bank debacle, she released a damning report for the coalition parties - underscoring her independence.

Full positions on topics are here:

https://www.griss16.at/haeufige-fragen

[Tender Branson]

This is how the ballot will look like (sample):



7.7 million ballots will be printed next week and then sent to absentee voters in early April.

[Tender Branson]

All candidates except Lugner have released their first poster campaigns so far, Griss being the last one yesterday:

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the new Gallup poll shows that the FPÖ is not losing any ground to SPÖVP so far (despite SPÖVP's new tougher asylum policy):



No majority for SPÖVP (47-50).

No majorities obviously for SPÖ/Greens/NEOS (40-57) or ÖVP/Greens/NEOS (41-56).

...

Majority for ÖVP/SPÖ/Greens (59-38).

Majorities for FPÖVP (57-40) and FPÖ/SPÖ (56-41).

Majority also for ÖVP/SPÖ/NEOS (52-45).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nationalratswahl-FPOe-wuerde-klar-gewinnen/229249540

[Tender Branson]

STATISTICS Austria released the budget deficit and debt numbers for 2015 today.

Using the comparable Maastricht criteria, the budget deficit was 1.2% of GDP (down from 2.7% in 2014).

Debt as percentage of GDP increased from 84.3% to 86.2% - but that was only because of the 3 bad banks which are currently winded down. It is projected that 2015 was the last year which led to an increase in the budget deficit/debt because of the bad banks. Starting with 2016, the debt should go down again relative to GDP.

The chart below shows the recent deficits and debts (as well as the impact of the bad banks on the figures). For example: without payments for the bad banks, the 2015 deficit was only at 0.5% and debt would actually be down from 78.1% to 77.5% ...



http://derstandard.at/2000033929132/Ohne-Bankenhilfe-haette-es-2015-fast-ein-Nulldefizit-gegeben

[Tender Branson]

Early absentee ballot requests from Salzburg City show that the Presidential election might have a turnout of ~70% (+/- 5%) this year, which would be back to normal.

Requests in the first 4 days are already 50% higher than 6 years ago.

2010 had a record low turnout of 54% because popular President Fischer was running for re-election and even the ÖVP backed him.

[Tender Branson]

Pres. candidate Irmgard Griss (Indy) presented a 21-point-plan for the 21st century yesterday:

https://www.griss16.at/21

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ's presidential candidate Norbert Hofer has started his election campaign today with a kick-off event in Styria (his birth state), in the industrial city of Kapfenberg (where the SPÖ long dominated elections, but where the FPÖ got 30%+ in last years state election).



Hofer, who positioned himself as a moderate in recent months and as a "Mr. Nice Guy" - was not so tame anymore at the campaign event with Strache (the Austrian FPÖ leader) - talking about the "Muslim invasion" that needs to be stopped and so on. Also, the FPÖ-speakers heavily attacked Green candidate Van der Bellen (who they think will be their opponent in a runoff) and called him a "Marxist" and "Anti-Democrat" for saying that he won't swear in a FPÖ-led government as President. They also mocked Van der Bellen's campaign posters for the use of "homeland" (Heimat), which apparently is an abuse to Austria and that the FPÖ virtually has an exclusive right to use that term ...



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/bpwahl/4958873/FPOWahlkampfstart-von-Hofer-in-Kapfenberg

[Tender Branson]

Tonight @ 8.15pm, the first debate of all 6 presidential candidates will take place at PULS 4.

All candidates will sit next to each other, with PULS 4 moderator Corinna Milborn in the center and an audience around them (people from the audience can also ask questions):



Live stream here:

http://www.puls4.com/pro-und-contra/bpwahl-live

Pollster OGM will have a live-poll during the debate, using an online-panel of 500 Austrian voters and debate watchers at home for their opinions about the candidates.

[Tender Branson]

Is FPOVP the likeliest future government ?

Nobody knows really, the election is only in 2.5 years. A lot can happen in the meantime.

But anyway: It's not the time right now to talk about the federal elections, when a highly interesting Presidential race is coming up (maybe even with a spectacular Green vs. FPÖ runoff).

[Tender Branson]

According to the live debate poll by OGM (the best pollster here), Hofer (FPÖ) won the debate with 26%, ahead of Griss (Indy) with 24%.

[Tender Branson]

Who connects best with citizens/voters ?



Who can best represent Austria abroad as President ?



Who won the debate / who convinced you most ?

[Tender Branson]

Would you say this poll has some validity, as in is it representative of the General population?

Yes, of course.

According to pollster OGM, the sample was weighted for federal party preference, gender, age, city-size, education etc.

Besides, the results are not really surprising after watching the debate: Hofer was moderate in the debate, but still tough on the issues important for FPÖ-voters and even had a massive zinger against Van der Bellen. Even the senior editor of the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper (who was in the audience) thought Hofer did a good job.

Griss in 2nd place can also be explained: While she was very technical/judicial/professorial in the first part of the debate, she still came across as very competent and presidential (which would explain why she did badly in the "being close to citizens" question, but solid in the "who can best represent Austria abroad" question). Also her party independence helped her.

Van der Bellen was also solid in his responses, but he was kinda passive throughout the debate and not nearly as presidential or frontrunner-like as his poll numbers would suggest.

Hundstorfer was likeable and gave good answers and zingered Hofer at times, but he represents the SPÖ and the party who leads the unpopular government, which is why he's being dragged down in the polls.

Khol and Lugner were not trainwrecks, but did not manage to go anywhere.

On the topic of TTIP, the moderator asked all candidates to explain in English (!) their positions on the issue and if they would sign a law if it were passed in parliament. Except for Lugner, all candidates spoke solid English and especially Khol gave a really in-depth answer on it.

[Tender Branson]

Would you say this poll has some validity, as in is it representative of the General population?

Yes, of course.

According to pollster OGM, the sample was weighted for federal party preference, gender, age, city-size, education etc.

Besides, the results are not really surprising after watching the debate: Hofer was moderate in the debate, but still tough on the issues important for FPÖ-voters and even had a massive zinger against Van der Bellen. Even the senior editor of the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper (who was in the audience) thought Hofer did a good job.

Griss in 2nd place can also be explained: While she was very technical/judicial/professorial in the first part of the debate, she still came across as very competent and presidential (which would explain why she did badly in the "being close to citizens" question, but solid in the "who can best represent Austria abroad" question). Also her party independence helped her.

Van der Bellen was also solid in his responses, but he was kinda passive throughout the debate and not nearly as presidential or frontrunner-like as his poll numbers would suggest.

Hundstorfer was likeable and gave good answers and zingered Hofer at times, but he represents the SPÖ and the party who leads the unpopular government, which is why he's being dragged down in the polls.

Khol and Lugner were not trainwrecks, but did not manage to go anywhere.

On the topic of TTIP, the moderator asked all candidates to explain in English (!) their positions on the issue and if they would sign a law if it were passed in parliament. Except for Lugner, all candidates spoke solid English and especially Khol gave a really in-depth answer on it.

Thanks for explaining it so good, It just shocked me a bit that Hofer is always 5/6% below VdB and that he got the best response from the audience..

If I understood It correctly, Khol called out Vdb's statement about not swearing in an FPO gov even if it had 50+% of the seats as a :"step towards a fascist president". Did I understand this right because my German is not that good..

If this is the case, could it be that Vdb lost a bit in the debate because of this, because it is not a light statement coming from a Candidate who has a Major candidate who has a big party behind him?

It went like this:

The moderator asked if the candidates would instruct the leader of the party that gets the most votes in the next federal election to form the next government. Van der Bellen and Lugner held signs in the air with a "No" and the other 4 candidates signs with "Yes."

The moderator then asked VdB why and he replied that if one party gets 25% and wins, it doesn't mean that this party would have the right to form the government because there are 75% who voted for other parties. The President has to look which coalition would best serve the interest of Austrians and that the further destruction of Europe and the EU (and he sees that coming from the FPÖ) is not in the interest of Austrian voters.

After which Hofer (FPÖ) replied that VdB once said that even if a party wins 50%+, VdB would not instruct that party to form the government or swear them in. Hofer would even instruct the Greens to form the next government if they win the election ...

Hofer then zingered VdB: "You once said when presenting your book: "If I were God, I would create a EUropean superstate, abolish and disempower the individual countries." Now I ask myself, for what exactly are you running for President if the member countries are abolished and disempowered ?"

After which VdB replied that the EU is totally inept in dealing with the current problems (asylum crisis, tax-related issues, economy etc.) and that a unified/centralized policy for all member countries would be preferable.

After which Hundstorfer replied to VdB: "You have to accept a democratic result and instruct the leader of the winning party first - no matter if you hold a personal grudge against that party or their leader. And if a party gets 50%+ of the seats, then of course you have to swear in that government and not talk about possible minority governments as an alternative. Personal grudges have no place in the office of President, you have to leave it at home."

Then Khol (ÖVP) weighed in against VdB: "Not instructing the winning party (even if it has an absolute majority), talk about minority governments as alternative because of a personal grudge - these are power fantasies of people who have never had government responsibility so far. I would of course instruct the leader of the winning party to form the next government, if that leader can present me a team/coalition and work program that is in line with the constitution."

Khol then talked about the messed-up Schüssel-Haider/Riess Passer government formation in 1999/2000, when President Klestil only agreed to swear in ÖVP-FPÖ with grining teeth after dismissing a few future cabinet members because he didn't like them. Khol called these events a "pre-fascist Presidential dictatorship".

After which Hundstorfer (SPÖ) asked his friend Khol: "Come on Andreas, please take back this choice of words."

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The debate was watched by 440K-480K people yesterday, which is pretty good for a PULS 4 debate (PULS 4 is a small private-TV channel).

The main debate on the public broadcaster ORF on April 21 is likely to be watched by 1 to 1.6 million people though, which would be 15-25% of all eligible voters.

Or in US terms, 35-58 million debate watchers.