Austrian Presidential runoff re-vote (Dec. 4) - Your Predictions

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

51.8% Alexander Van der Bellen (Green)
48.2% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

Turnout: 65.4% (it will drop significantly from the 73% in the May runoff)

[Tender Branson]

Why are y'all predicting a Hofer win ?

[Tender Branson]

Something will cause the vote to be postponed.

Nope. Not anymore.

But someone can still challenge the result again ...

For example because the number of eligible voters was updated for Dec. 4 - even though the Constitutional Court ruled that there needs to be a 1:1 re-vote. Which means the same voters as in the original runoff, and not including citizens who have reached voting age in the meantime ...

[Tender Branson]

Another prediction:

We'll likely see fewer postal ballot requests this time compared with the May runoff.

The May runoff set a new record for requested postal ballots (about 900.000), but the "glue-gate" will likely lead many people to go back to precinct voting.

My estimate would be 650.000 ballots this time. We should know next Saturday (Dec. 3) how many people requested one.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty unpredictable. Maybe if Kern comes out (if he hasn't already) and campaigns on behalf of vdB then maybe he could get another win.

Kern and most SPÖ-politicians have already endorsed VdB already, appear with him at campaign events and allowed the VdB campaign to use their poster spaces around the country ...

On the other hand, Kern is already thinking beyond the Presidential election to the next federal elections: He debated Strache (FPÖ) yesterday, in what the media described as a "cuddle-debate", because neither man attacked the other and the debate was generally very polite and down to facts. It seems Kern is "preparing" for a possible FPÖ/SPÖ coalition, even though nobody knows how this would work. The SPÖ's Left would probably splinter in this case, or stage massive protests. But the current poisoned SPÖVP governing climate is making even FPÖ/SPÖ not that unlikely: There's a growing wing within the SPÖ that favours a coalition with the FPÖ not just on the state levels, but also the national level. In Vienna, this has led to a crisis meeting in the SPÖ recently and this intra-SPÖ split might also hurt VdB in the Dec. 4 election in Vienna ...

[Tender Branson]

Just 4 days left to post your predictions !

[Tender Branson]

My updated prediction:

51.6% VdB
48.4% Hofer

Turnout: 65.3% (-7.4%, people are really pissed off right now after 1 year of campaigning)

[Tender Branson]

I’ve been predicting all around and I’m jeered by the US Election results this year.
This will be my WILD GUESS.

Nationwide (AT): Van der Bellen 53-47
-----------------------------------------
Burgenland (BL): Safe FPO-Solid, Hofer 58-42
Carinthia (KT): Safe FPO-Strong, Hofer 56-44
Styria (SR): Likely FPO, Hofer 53-47
Salzburg (SB): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 50.5-49.5
Lower Austria (NH): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 51-49
Upper Austria (OH): Likely I, Van der Bellen 54-46
Tyrol (TR): Safe I-Strong, Van der Bellen 57-43
Vorarlberg (VB): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 62-38
Vienna (WN): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 67-33

This looks like a really good prediction !