2017 French Presidential Election (user search)
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 106431 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #25 on: April 22, 2017, 08:59:44 AM »

I think the Macron and Melenchon vote from the polls will not fully materialize tomorrow, much like the VdB and Griss* votes did not. Macron's 2-3% will likely go to Fillon in the end and Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. As well as 1% from Dupont.

*I voted for centrist Griss in round one here, but I knew that it wouldn't be enough for her to reach the runoff. I'd also vote for Macron, but I don't think he might get there after all.

A month or 2 ago I thought that Le Pen vs. Fillon would never happen, but tomorrow we might just get that ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2017, 06:47:49 AM »

The turnout figures are all over the board.

The Interior Ministry has them for all departments and some show an increase in Fillon areas, some are down. The same for PS and FN areas ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2017, 06:57:07 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 07:00:44 AM by Tender Branson »

The turnout figures are all over the board.

The Interior Ministry has them for all departments and some show an increase in Fillon areas, some are down. The same for PS and FN areas ...
Link please?

Here's the link for all departments at 12:00 for today (3 PDF files):

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Election-du-president-de-la-Republique-2017-Premier-tour-Taux-de-participation-a-12h

And here's the link for 2012 (the relevant figure is on the left: Tour 1 - 12h (%):

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-9-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2012-par-departement-par-ordre-decroissant

or this:

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-6-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2002-2007-et-2012-par-departement-en-metropole
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #28 on: April 23, 2017, 07:20:18 AM »

I've seen some results for Guadalupe, Martinique and Guyane on the internet. How well was Melenchon supposed to do in these areas?

Those were probably fake.

RTBF has them on its site and apparently Melenchon has done very well overseas. Macron second overall, Le Pen third and Fillon fourth. https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_presidentielle-francaise-la-participation-a-midi-direct?id=9587638&utm_source=rtbfinfo&utm_campaign=social_share&utm_medium=twitter_share

If these results are accurate and mainland France votes like them, it seems Le Pen and Melenchon are heading for big wins today (Le Pen doubling of tripling her results overseas compared with 2012, while Melenchon gets a good chunk of former Hollande voters, Macron as well). Fillon and Hamon are collapsing.

But that's a big "if" ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #29 on: April 23, 2017, 07:44:41 AM »

It's completely ridiculous that communist candidate Melenchon has so much support. France is no longer a great country it once was and Hollande's term was a disaster but that guy would take France into an even worst level.

Generally speaking no one of these four candidates come to me as really good. Three of them are pro-Putin (and this is by no means the only bad thing about them), while the last one seem to be content with current situation: struggling economy and terrorist danger. If I had to chose I would pick Fillon as the best of the worst but I am no fan of him.

I predict Le Pen and Fillon/Macron to go through and one of the last two to win in May. However it is a pretty open race between the four today.

It's not that ridiculous if you think about it:

In the US, most chose the extremist right candidate Trump and a lot also went to the extreme left with Bernie Sanders.

In Austria, the extreme right received 35% in the first round, while the leftist got 21%.

The establishment was shut out in both elections.

I could definitely see France also choosing the far-right extremist and the far-left extremist today.

But let's still hope that Macron tops Melenchon. A Le Pen vs. Melenchon runoff would be disgusting.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #30 on: April 23, 2017, 07:57:23 AM »

Any indications on turnout in key areas as they affect a certain candidate's chances?

I have looked through the 12:00 turnout figures by dept. and they are all over the place.

You cannot draw any conclusions here ...

What times do the polls close with say, East Coast U.S time.  (Three Hours later than Pacific Coast time.)  Sorry if this has been answered already.

2pm East Coast.
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