OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama with a huge lead over McCain

[Tender Branson]

Today's OH and MN polls seem to be a bit off. Party composition looks freaky, Obama winning Whites, but only getting 70% of African-Americans, no difference between men and women and Obama tied with McCain among young voters.

In MN, McCain is suddenly winning Independents by double-digits, 2 weeks ago Obama led by double-digits among them ... Something is very wrong here.

[Tender Branson]

LOL

Josh buddy, in 2006 it was 40% Dem/37% GOP/23% independent. Hardly close to this poll.

Ok, now add on the national shift of toward the Democratic Party, which is close to 10%.

Also I do people alot of the bump is dude to Republcains not liking how the Republican party is being run, and the Indys switching to Democrats.

Just did the math:

If we adjust the PPP numbers to 2006 composition (40D, 37R, 23I), McCain beats Obama 45-43.

If we add a point in increased turnout to the Democrats (41D, 36R, 23I) because DEM Party ID increased in the last 2 years according to Rasmussen, Obama and McCain are tied at 44%.

[Tender Branson]

Excuse me? A 10% shift nationally to the Democrats? What proof do you have of this? I know their registration has been increasing due to the primaries, but that figure is a joke. If registration is that lopsided in Ohio, its not a swing state. I want to see proof that its swung that wildly. Otherwise, its just wishful thinking on your part. 2006 was a terrible years for the GOP. Its not going to be that bad in 2008.

He`s not really wrong. Between 2004 and 2006 there was a 8% shift to the Democrats in turnout. Democrats went from 35% to 40%, Republicans slid from 40% to 37%. It´s not out of question that Democrats will make up 40-42% in November, and Republicans 35-37%. That would be a 10% swing. The fact that OH is a toss-up right now is the fact that Obama is still getting 10% less Democrats than McCain is getting Republicans. If Democratic Party cohesion matches Strickland/Brown by November as well as Obama winning Independents by a similar margin than the 2 Democrats in 2006, McCain will get trashed. But probably that is not the case.