2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

BTW, does anyone know what the deadline for dissolvement of parliament would have to be to hold state elections together with the federal elections ?

In the case of an early election, filing deadline for political parties is 48 days before the election.

Which would be 3 weeks from today ...

[Tender Branson]

News from Emnid:

80% of Germans think that Merkel will remain Chancellor, only 13% say Steinmeier.

95% of CDU/CSU voters say Merkel will stay and 84% of SPD voters.

Also, voters oppose a new Grand Coalition by 56-37.

53% of SPD voters and 51% of CDU/CSU are against it.

[Tender Branson]

Motion to dissolve state parliament has failed because of the SPD's veto. Vote of confidence will probably take place on Thursday.

So, who's giving a no-confidence vote to Carstensen ?

CDU and FDP ? Also the Greens ?

[Tender Branson]

Now the CDU is going down as well. New IfM poll for Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 32% (-8)
SPD: 23% (-16)
FDP: 17% (+10)
Greens: 15% (+9)
Left: 5% (+4)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

As if the SPD is not down enough in the federal polls, there's even more bad news for them:

German Minister Accused of Wasting Taxpayers' Money

German Health Minister Ulla Schmidt faces accusations of wasting taxpayers' money after she had her official limousine driven more than 2,000 kilometers to Spain's Costa Blanca, where she is vacationing. She says she needs the car to attend official functions there. Unfortunately, it has been stolen.

German Health Minister Ulla Schmidt has come in for strong criticism in the media and from fellow politicians after it emerged that she took her official limousine, an armored Mercedes S class plus driver, on vacation to Spain.



In hot water: German Health Minister Ulla Schmidt

Schmidt's spokeswoman said the minister needed the limousine to attend a number of official functions in Spain during the vacation, and that the minister didn't break any rules. All German cabinet ministers are entitled to a limousine and driver for official and private use, provided they cover the costs of private use themselves.

The case probably wouldn't have come to light if the car hadn't been stolen last week from the Spanish resort of Denia, some 80 kilometers north of Alicante.

Reports of the theft prompted uncomfortable questions about why Schmidt needed her limousine during her vacation when the German embassy in Madrid could presumably have arranged transport for her official engagements there.

She flew to Spain while her chauffeur drove all the way from Germany to the Costa Blanca, a popular tourist destination on Spain's Mediterranean coast. The government footed the fuel cost of the trip to Spain, media reports said.

Media commentators and politicians from the rival conservatives accused her of wasting taxpayers' money -- an especially damaging allegation at a time of economic crisis.

Quite apart from the financial aspects, it doesn't look good for a minister to be enjoying the perks of her office on a vacation.

The resulting negative press headlines are the last thing Schmidt's center-left Social Democrats need as they prepare to begin campaigning this week for the Sept. 27 general election. They are trailing badly in opinion polls.

Berliner Kurier, a Berlin tabloid, ran the front page headline "Not Without My S-Class".

Georg Schirmbeck, a member of parliament for Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats, said sending the limousine across Europe was a "scandalous waste of taxpayers' money."

In Germany, accusations of wasting taxpayers' money are far more dangerous to politicians than other types of scandal such as revelations about extramarital affairs. However, given that Schmidt's term will be over in just two months, it seems unlikely at this stage that she will be forced to resign.

"The fact that she made such a hefty faux-pas shows: she's the wrong woman for the federal government," Schirmbeck told Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung newspaper. "Her behavior does immense damage to the more than 600 members of parliament. The Health Minister is exacerbating the mistrust that broad swathes of the population have towards politicians." The conservatives and Social Democrats rule together in a power-sharing grand coalition.

Ole Schöder, another CDU member, said parliament's budget committee will be asking Schmidt questions about the matter.

Patrick Döring, a member of parliament for the opposition pro-business Free Democrats, said: "I can't imagine that the German embassy in Madrid isn't in a position to drive the minister to a speech or several speeches."

A Health Ministry spokeswoman said the minister had two official engagements during her two-week vacation. One is a reception hosted by the mayor of the village of Denia where she is vacationing, the second is taking place in a public hall in Els Poblets -- less than 10 kilometers away.

Schmidt has a privately rented car for private excursions during her holiday.

Business daily Financial Times Deutschland commented on Monday: "What will stick is the message that an SPD minister who speaks up for the poor and the weak in her speeches has herself driven around in an armored S-class vehicle while on vacation. You can't get much further removed from the people than that."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,638488,00.html

[Tender Branson]

A new Emnid poll shows the following turnout forecast:

59% will definitely vote
27% are currently undecided if they will vote
11% will definitely not vote

For comparision, in 2005 turnout was 78%. So I guess 80% could be possible this time.

62.2 Mio. Germans are eligible to vote on Sept. 27, which would mean about 50 Mio. votes.

[Tender Branson]

Forsa Poll Update:

CDU/CSU: 38% (+2)
SPD: 23% (nc)
FDP: 13% (-1)
Greens: 12% (nc)
Left: 9% (-1)
Others: 5% (nc)

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP

Merkel (CDU): 58% (+2)
Steinmeier (SPD): 17% (-3)

[Tender Branson]

Latest Forsa poll for the August 30 Thüringen state elections:

CDU: 40% (-3 compared with '04 state elections)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 16% (+1)
Greens: 6% (+1)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Nazis: 3% (+1)
Others: 5% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

All data:



Averages for each month:



So is no one even campaigning or what? It seems like voters have made  up their mind and only a very small % of people are wavering at all. Are things about to heat up as the election gets closer, or are German voters just already decided?

http://www.abehnisch.com/btw09.html

The general election campaign still has not started, but you are right - only 20% of Germans are wavering atm. The others can be considered the Stammwählerschaft ("base voters") of the parties.

There's probably some movement in the next 2 months and there's already some considerable movement compared with 2005 (the coalition in power is losing votes and the opposition parties are gaining). In 2002 and 2005 the CDU/CSU was way overpolling by 10 and 20 percent by this time of the year, but in the end the result was tied in 2002 and 2005.

But this time around it's different: Schröder was in power in 2002 and 2005 and had the "Amtsbonus" (incumbency bonus), now it's Merkel - currently with a 70% Approval rating.

The SPD is also not able to gain because of the "tax-wasting-scandal" of Ulla Schmidt -> see article above.

There's also another aspect why the CDU/CSU is doing that well right now. In the beginning of 2009 the FDP was gaining considerably from the CDU/CSU, to about 18% in spring. Then Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg became Minister of Economy and a very popular one. This caused many voters to switch back to CDU/CSU, who were formerly sceptics of the CDU/CSU economic measures.

[Tender Branson]

Steinmeier unveils his campaign war team



Hoping to shake off the recent scandal over Health Minister Ulla Schmidt’s stolen limousine, Social Democrat (SPD) candidate for chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Thursday unveiled his election team, in which women outnumber men.

Steinmeier’s “shadow cabinet” for the national election campaign includes 10 women and eight men, among them some fresh - and young - faces with no experience in federal politics.

The current chairwoman of the Bundestag defence committee, Ulrike Merten, will become the first woman responsible for the key portfolio of defence in a campaign.

The Social Democrats, who are trailing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats in every published poll, have less than two months to make up the gap before the polls open on September 27.

Steinmeier, who serves as Foreign Minister in the uneasy grand coalition government with Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), has appealed repeatedly in the past few days to the party not to give up the fight against her party.

He announced his election campaign team in Potsdam after a closed party meeting, which was overshadowed by discussion of the damaging row over Health Minister Schmidt’s embarrassing decision to take her official car on holiday in Spain. After the €90,000 armoured Mercedes S-Class was stolen, taxpayer advocacy groups have criticised Schmidt, saying it was unethical for her to spend tax dollars to have her driver make the 2,387-kilometre journey from Berlin to accompany her on a few minor official visits.

Though Schmidt has said she will not resign, she has been left out of Steinmeier’s team for the time being. For now her place is filled by the party’s parliamentary health spokeswoman Carola Reimann, who will also take responsibility for universities and research.

Current Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück will take the key role of the SPD's campaign spokesman for finance and the economy. He will be backed up by 37-year-old businessman Harald Christ, who will look after small business.

Christ is one of several fresh faces, the youngest of whom is the 35-year-old social minister for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, who will speak for family issues during the campaign.

The vice-president of the National Union of Farmers (DBV), Udo Folgart, will take agriculture.

SPD parliamentary leader Thomas Oppermann will go up against the CDU’s Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble in the campaign.

The current chief of the state chancellery, Barbara Kisseler, will be responsible for arts and culture.

SPD treasurer Barbara Hendricks takes over consumer and investor affairs and federal MP Dagmar Freitag will look after sports. The commissioner for disabilities, Karin Evers-Meyer, will take on the same issue in the Steinmeier team.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20090730-20925.html

[Tender Branson]

Latest ARD-Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap (July 28-29, 1000 Germans 18+):

CDU/CSU: 36% (West: 38%, East: 28%)
SPD: 24% (West: 24%, East: 23%)
FDP: 14% (West: 15%, East: 11%)
Greens: 13% (West: 14%, East: 9%)
Left: 10% (West: 6%, East: 24%)
Others: 3% (West: 3%, East: 5%)

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

Merkel (CDU) vs. Steinmeier (SPD): 60-25

Merkel Job Approval Rating: 70%
Steinmeier Job Approval Rating: 59%

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend752.html

[Tender Branson]

Emnid asked Germans if they'd like to see another term for these politicians:



Ah yeah, you can zoom this picture with a click of your mouse ...

[Tender Branson]

81% of East-Germans favor a second Merkel-term.

Is this a hidden Merkel-boost on election day, or will voters in Eastern Germany don't care about her and vote CDU in accordance to what the polls show ?

[Tender Branson]

Polls *are* showing CDU gains in East Germany to make up for the demographically inevitable losses in the west.

Or at least there was a snippet on election.de to that effect some months ago.

*must check the facts*

(where can I find 2005 results by East-West, without adding up the numbers myself ?)

[Tender Branson]

http://stat.tagesschau.de/wahlarchiv/wid246/index.shtml (scroll a bit)

Doesn't say what they did about Berlin (there's three options, really: count the whole city as east, count the east as east and the west as west, or not count the city at all.)

Looks like the CDU is holding steady in the West (~38%) and gaining about 3-5% in the East.

Allensbach for example has the CDU at 38% in the West and 30% in the East.
Infratest dimap also has them at 38% and 28% in the East.

For the record: I'd count all of Berlin as "East".

BTW: What do you mean with "inevitable demographic chances" in the West that cause the CDU to lose ?

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the CDU is holding steady in the West (~38%) and gaining about 3-5% in the East.

That's just pollster bias. I'm automatically correcting for what's likely - not certain - in a high-turnout election. (Note: CDU/CSU/FDP combined are currently polling exactly where they were this far out four and seven years ago nationally.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are more old CDU voters dying off than can be replaced. Obviously the phenomenon is most pronounced in urban parts, but it holds as statistically significant nationwide. The CDU will have to appeal to new demographics if it wants to stand a chance of governing in the long run. This didn't use to be the case. There was a "structural" right-wing plurality in Germany once. No more.
It's probably more pronounced if you look strictly at the CDU(/CSU) than at the combined right - younger Conservatives are also more inclined to vote FDP instead. How much of that is due purely to tactics (or misunderstood tactics. Happens on the Left just as much, of course) and how much is due to really liking that brand of rightwingness better is impossible to quantify.
Yeah, I know the "people get more Conservative as they grow older" theory. It doesn't hold water. At least not in a sufficiently determinative way to compare.

In Germany it probably is that way: people vote more conservative when they are older (not the case in Austria, where the SPÖ is the party of the Olds, because they provide their retirement money ).

In 2005, according to this study, 43% of all people aged 60+ voted CDU/CSU and just 34% for SPD, 9% FPD, 8% Left and 4% Green. So, 52-46 for Center-Right, compared with just 45-51 for the entire electorate. The olds are also the most likely to vote, having turnout of about 80-85%, compared to about 78% among all voters. On the other side, Center-Left gets almost 56% of all votes among 18-24 year olds.

Just looking at CDU/CSU vs. SPD among 45-59 year olds, it's almost tied (33%-34%). These people became older during the last 5 years, but I doubt they have kept their voting behavior and also trended CDU/CSU ...

[Tender Branson]

Eh, no. Some people do, but in general the people 55 today are less conservative than the people who were 55 ten years ago were ten years ago. Etc. (Doesn't hold for every single year among the younger generation, of course. But is probably safe to say anywhere from say people in the late 40s to the early 70s.)

If I could only find a "Repräsentative Wahlstatistik" from 1998 and 2002 ...

[Tender Branson]

Ah, now I´ve found it (for 2002 at least):

Overall results (2002): CDU 38.5%, SPD 38.5%

Voters 60+: CDU 46.0%, SPD 38.5% (+7.5, no diff.)
Voters 45-60: CDU 37.4%, SPD 38.8% (-1.1, +0.3)
Voters 35-45: CDU 33.5%, SPD 39.3% (-5.0, +0.8 )

Overall results (2005): CDU 35.2%, SPD 34.2%

Voters 60+: CDU 43.3%, SPD 34.1% (+8.1, -0.1)
Voters 45-60: CDU 33.1%, SPD 34.4% (-2.1, +0.2)
Voters 35-45: CDU 31.1%, SPD 34.1% (-4.1, -0.1)

http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Content/Publikationen/Querschnittsveroeffentlichungen/WirtschaftStatistik/Wahlen/Waehlerverhalten,property=file.pdf

So, the CDU did better with 60+ voters between 2002 and 2005, worse with 45-60 and better again with 35-45 olds ...

[Tender Branson]

Steinmeier promises full employment within 11 years

While the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) takes a summer break before the autumn election campaign, chancellor candidate for the Social Democrats (SPD), Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has unveiled a plan to create full employment in the next 11 years.

The ambitious idea centres around turning Germany into what Steinmeier called the "Silicon Valley of environmentally-sensitive industrial production," according to Der Spiegel magazine at the weekend.

“We show how with clever policies Germany can create a total of 4 million jobs in the next decade,” he said.

Steinmeier’s 67-page "Plan for Germany" sets out how half of these jobs which will be generated by promoting greener industries, as well as energy and raw material saving.

A further million new jobs could be created in the health service, he said, in particular in the care professions – for the chronically sick and the old.

Half a million jobs should be created in what Steinmeier called the "creative industries" and a further half a million in other service industries and trade.

On top of this, Steinmeier promised to found an ‘alliance for mid-sized businesses’ which will bring business, unions and banks around one table in order to shore up the conditions necessary for job creation and fight the effects of the credit crunch. This would also include a state credit mediator which would negotiate between banks and companies needing money.

Steinmeier will launch his plan on Monday evening in a speech in Berlin. The election which will decide whether he manages to oust Chancellor Angela Merkel from her post will be held on September 27.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20090801-20965.html

Well, 4 Mio. jobs seems to be a bit high, but not impossible.

In early 1997, Germany had 36.9 Mio. employed, in early 2009 it was 40.2 Mio.

Considering that the job market is lagging behind, Germany might shed about 1 Mio. jobs until recovery gets back on track in lets say 2012.

And from 2012 to 2020 it's not impossible to create again 2-3 Mio. or so jobs.

The question is only: What kind of jobs ? Good-paying full time jobs or many part time jobs ?

Full employment though by 2020 is bullsh*t !

[Tender Branson]

Will they Schreiber-case still have any impact on the elections next month ?

Karlheinz Schreiber: the man with the suitcase full of cash

He has brought shame to politicians on both sides of the Atlantic and now German-Canadian businessman Karlheinz Schreiber is back in Germany to face charges of tax-evasion, fraud and corruption.

Schreiber is a key figure in the slush-fund scandal that disgraced former Chancellor Helmut Kohl's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU). But in his adopted home of Canada, he also brought former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney into ill repute. Now, after a decade-long legal battle, he has been extradited to Germany.

In Canada, Schreiber lived life well, enjoying residences in the business capital Toronto and the federal capital Ottawa. He developed a reputation as a man who loved hobnobbing with power brokers in both Canada and Germany.

But like the life he left behind in Germany, Schreiber flew out of Canada on Sunday under a cloud of suspicion and scandal. On July 28, the Oliphant commission held its final day of hearings in which Schreiber testified that he gave Mulroney €196,000 (CAD$300,000) to lobby on behalf of Thyssen Industries to the Canadian government to build an armoured vehicle plant while the Progressive Conservative leader was still in power. Mulroney claims the funds he received, €147,00 ($225,000 CAD) changed hands shortly after he left office in 1993.

As part of the agreement to get Schreiber to testify, Canadian officials said the weapons-lobbyist turned pasta dealer could stay in the country he’s been a citizen of since 1982 until the end of the hearings. At the weekend, a last-ditch effort hearing to halt the extradition was held and denied. He was met by German police as he landed in Munich on Monday morning.

Arrested in 1999 by the Canadian authorities, the 75-year-old will now face prosecution for charges related to a slush-fund scandal that rocked Kohl's conservatives in 1999.

After enjoying successful sales careers in his hometown of Hohegeiß im Harz and Braunschweig, Schreiber moved on to Munich, where he met his business mentor Franz Josef Strauß, who went on to become leader of the Christian Social Democrats, Bavarian sister-party to the CDU.

Shortly after that meeting, Schreiber's career in weapons sales took off. He managed contracts for helicopters, Airbus planes and armoured personnel carriers for Germany and other countries. He mediated ties from steel giant Thyssen and the Bavarian state government and the federal intelligence services based in the Munich suburb of Pullach, among other contracts.

However, between his legitimate dealings, an investigation based in Augsburg into the CDU’s political finances during the 1990s put the heat on Schreiber. Under investigation for allegedly exchanging a briefcase containing €511,000 (1 million German Marks) with former CDU treasurer Walter Leisler Kiep in a Swiss parking lot in August 1991, Schreiber emptied all of his German bank accounts and used his Canadian passport to settle permanently in Toronto in 1996.

But his past caught up to him in 1999, when Kiep was arrested in Germany. The Canadian authorities arrested Schreiber on a German warrant. Tracing Schrieber’s briefcase of money into the CDU's party coffers, Kiep as well as two Thyssen managers and Ludwig-Holger Pfals, a former liaison to the defense ministry were all found guilty of corruption.

Another €51,000 (DM100,000) donation made by Schreiber to the CDU also forced the then party leader Woflgang Schäuble to resign in 2000, paving the way for current Chancellor Angela Merkel to take the helm of Germany's conservatives by disavowing the shady dealings of the Kohl era.

The Augsburg investigation uncovered millions in illegal donations squirreled away in slush funds under Kohl’s leadership in the 1990s. Kohl initially denied knowledge of the accounts, putting the scheme entirely on Kiep. However, in a teary television appearance weeks after Kiep’s arrest, Kohl admitted he knew about the illegal donations. But he stubbornly refused to name the donors, claming their privacy was protected by his word of honour.

After landing in Munich on Monday, Schreiber was whisked away to prison in nearby Augsburg.

Whether his arrival in Germany will now produce any new revelations about the CDU's misdeeds under Kohl is unclear, but he claims he has become an unwilling participant in the upcoming German election. The vote takes place on September 27. Schreiber's trial date is still pending.

If found guilty on all charges, Schreiber faces 15 years in jail.

http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090803-21001.html

[Tender Branson]

The SPD takes another dive in the latest Forsa poll:

CDU: 37%
SPD: 20%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 13%
Left: 11%
Others: 5%

[Tender Branson]

Seat projection (without Überhangmandate):

CDU/CSU: 233
SPD: 126
FDP: 88
Greens: 82
Left: 69

[Tender Branson]

The new Emnid poll shows a somewhat "tighter" race:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 15%
Greens: 12%
Left: 11%
Others: 4%

[Tender Branson]

New constituency polls for Hamburg for the newspaper "Welt":

Hamburg-Eimsbüttel:

Danial Ilkhanipour (SPD): 37% (2005: 45% for Niels Annen)
Rüdiger Kruse (CDU): 36% (2005: 34%)
Krista Sager (Greens): 13%

Hamburg-Nord:

Dirk Fischer (CDU): 40% (2005: 39%)
Christian Carstensen (SPD): 38% (2005: 43% for Carstensen)

Hamburg-Wandsbek:

Ingo Egloff (SPD): 44% (2005: 50% for Ortwin Runde (SPD))
Jürgen Klimke (CDU): 37% (2005: 36%)

The SPD-candidates (Olaf Scholz, Johannes Kahrs, Hans-Ulrich Klose) of the other 3 Hamburg districts (Altona, Mitte, Harburg) are safe according to the polls by election.de

http://www.welt.de/die-welt/vermischtes/hamburg/article4290209/SPD-muss-in-drei-Wahlkreisen-um-Direktmandat-zittern.html

Looks like a uniform 6-10% swing to the CDU ...

[Tender Branson]

www.election.de now estimates the following:



213 direct seats for CDU/CSU (127 of them are safe)
81 direct seats for SPD (15 of them are safe)

97 seats are currently toss-ups
60 seats are slightly leaning in one party's direction

Will be interesting if the districts of Freiburg and Leipzig-South go to the CDU as well ...

There's also the possibility that the states of Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are becoming SPD-free in the first vote ...