2011 White Christmas forecast thread

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Figured this could be fun - if anybody wants to know if you'll likely have a white Christmas, post here and I'll do my best to answer.  Although, anybody south of the Mason-Dixon line, don't worry about asking.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I give Bemidji, Minnesota a 5% chance.

Also, I'm using the National Weather Service's definition of 1" of snow on the ground regardless of if it fell on Christmas Day as my definition.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

While I am surprised who started this thread, I'm not by who was the first to respond.  And I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What about Ottawa? I think I can only remember 1 green Christmas in my life. Could be another this year. It was 10 C (50F) today, a record temperature.

70%.  Ottawa the city has a lesser chance than the suburbs due to urban heat island effects.  You guys should have had a fair amount of snow before the warm up (looks like around 3 inches on the ground), but I'm guessing that melted today.  Some showers coming in the next week, but whether it'll actually get to an inch will be what we have to wait to see.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Middlesbrough - North East, England, UK.

0.000000000001%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What about Ottawa? I think I can only remember 1 green Christmas in my life. Could be another this year. It was 10 C (50F) today, a record temperature.

70%.  Ottawa the city has a lesser chance than the suburbs due to urban heat island effects.  You guys should have had a fair amount of snow before the warm up (looks like around 3 inches on the ground), but I'm guessing that melted today.  Some showers coming in the next week, but whether it'll actually get to an inch will be what we have to wait to see.

We haven't had any lasting snow this season, actually. Certainly not as much as 3 inches. Any snow we've got so far melted within a couple of days.

I see that now.  I was looking at the wrong spot on the map... not sure what I did, because when you posted that, I went to recheck and immediately saw no reported snow from the models.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

By the way, Snowguy and Naso, if you disagree with any of my forecasts, feel free to chime in.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

That's simply not true.  All you'd have to have is the right pattern to get it to happen.  I'm not saying it's likely to happen, but it could happen.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Montreal?

I'll be out of town for Christmas (thankfully).

5%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

That's simply not true.  All you'd have to have is the right pattern to get it to happen.  I'm not saying it's likely to happen, but it could happen.

And in theory it could snow in July, but it won't.  Tell you what Inks, I'll bet you 10,000 that I will not experience a White Christmas during the next 9 years, 9 months, 9 days. (That's a 10,000 bet over 9-9-9.)

But it's a lot more likely to happen in December.  Happening in January, you'd have to have a crazy system, not just out of the ordinary.

And where in South Carolina are you?  Apparently portions of SC have had white Christmases in 2010 and 1963: http://www2.counton2.com/news/2010/dec/25/first-white-christmas-nearly-50-years-portions-sou-ar-1264706/

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Zurich, Switzerland, please. If you cover this part of Europe.

.0000000000001%

I don't often cover Europe, so my forecasts there aren't so great, but it's pretty clear in this case you won't be nearly cold enough.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Las Vegas, NV. 


There was a rare "heavy" snowfall in mid-December '08 actually, though it was gone by Christmas.  The peaks of the mountains surrounding the valley are usually snow-covered most of the winter.

0%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Toronto, uptown (Pearson Airport, not downtown)

.0000000000000001%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Toronto, uptown (Pearson Airport, not downtown)

37% according to Environment Canada

Environment Canada is on crack if they think that.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

That's simply not true.  All you'd have to have is the right pattern to get it to happen.  I'm not saying it's likely to happen, but it could happen.

And in theory it could snow in July, but it won't.  Tell you what Inks, I'll bet you 10,000 that I will not experience a White Christmas during the next 9 years, 9 months, 9 days. (That's a 10,000 bet over 9-9-9.)

But it's a lot more likely to happen in December.  Happening in January, you'd have to have a crazy system, not just out of the ordinary.

And where in South Carolina are you?  Apparently portions of SC have had white Christmases in 2010 and 1963: http://www2.counton2.com/news/2010/dec/25/first-white-christmas-nearly-50-years-portions-sou-ar-1264706/

As you quoted, I live in the Midlands.  The Upstate, with a degree more northerly latitude and higher elevations gets significantly more wintry precipitation than the Midlands does.  I got cold rain for Xmas last year, not snow.

Ahh ok, I wasn't sure of exactly where you were talking about.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

In case you haven't addressed Michigan yet, feel free to do so. I'm getting worried about the chances for snow around these parts. Specifically, Waterford Township, Clarkston, and Davisburg would be nice. All located in South-Eastern Michigan.

.000000000000000000001% - it's not gonna happen.  We didn't get enough cold air.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Will there be snow visible from the Santa Clara Valley?

I know little about the mountains in the area or how high they are, but I believe they're not too tall really, so I'd say it's not likely.