UK local by-elections, 2024

[Torrain]

Huh. Reform actually winning a vote share in line with their national polling - that’s novel.

[Torrain]

Per Ballot Box Scotland, the Family Party voters had pretty different second preferences compared to the last by-election:

Con: 34% / 18%
SNP: 6% / 12%
Lab: 18% / 10%
Grn: 2% / 18%
LD: 10% / 8%
None: 30% / 34%

So fair chance they're a different bunch.

[Torrain]

This may well be unionist confirmation bias talking. But my skepticism about that Mirror MRP polling predicting a Scottish Tory wipeout is deepened by results in the Borders like this.

I mean, if they’re still winning wards like Jedburgh by 40%, while the SNP vote falls back, it’s very hard to see the Roxburgh seat as all that vulnerable.

The Galloway seat, West Aberdeenshire - could be real fights if the SNP plan to offset expected losses in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Fife, rather than go on the defensive. But Roxburgh, and Banff and Buchan seem like they’ve got some breathing room.

_{(Requisite disclaimer - Jedburgh is a Tory ward, and 2/3 councillors were already Conservatives. This was likely going to result in a Tory win, because STV can’t save the SNP in an FPTP by-election, and the Tory candidate was a former independent with a strong personal vote when he ran in 2022. Any commentary is based on the scale of the win, in the face of reduced conservative numbers in Scotland-specific polling)}

[Torrain]

We've got an interesting by-election coming up in Glasgow's West End this week, trigged by the death of Labour councillor Hanzala Malik earlier this year. It's a Green Party ward, so this could be the first time the Scottish Greens ever gain a council seat via byelection. SNP came in second in 2022, Labour in third.

The lead Green candidate in normal elections is a well-respected local councillor, so curious to see how they fare without her personal vote. They'll probably still win, but interesting to see whether Labour can tighten the margin (and try for second place) - or whether Glasgow Uni's presence in the ward means they'll lose a few points over certain Middle East issues.

[Torrain]

Thanks for stepping in, happy to take a turn with next week’s contests, if you’d like.

[Torrain]

Again, unionist disclaimer.

But it’s an interesting set of results. For the SNP (who reputable ScotPol watchers like Alan Faulds assumed where favoured here) to do *this* poorly is a bit of a warning shot.

Despite their tilt towards Edinburgh and Glasgow voters, the highlands and rural areas have been the SNP’s best area in polling over the past year. Suggests an Independent, in the mold of say, perhaps a Fergus Ewing, might be able to do some damage here - and that the Lib Dem’s might finally be able to feel a little calmer about Jamie Stone’s chances in Caithness.

If we have another year of coverage on hot-button issues for highlanders, like the wood-burning stove ban, A96 duelling, etc etc, there could be a vulnerability here.

[Torrain]

Conservative victory in Arbroath is another warning shot to the SNP. This was an SNP ward in 2022, and the Tories pulled a 13% lead over them here. If places like Angus are amenable to the Tories, the North East might end up looking more like 2017 than ‘15 or even ‘19.

[Torrain]

A Labour win was expected in Kilwinning, given its one of the party’s best wards. But the swings are still pretty impressive.

Notable that the swing was largely among Labour (+8.3%) and SNP (-12%) while the Tories stayed essentially exactly still (-0.1%). If you saw a swing like that in rural Scotland at the GE, SNP-Lab swing voters could deliver several seats to the Tories, and shore up their existing holdings.