British Local Elections, May 2024

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Tory candidate for the Greater Manchester mayoral race has defected to Reform to run as their candidate. Tories have two weeks to find a replacement before nominations close.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1770787419777888553

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First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

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Thanks for that - the order of declarations are going to be pretty vital for narrative-setting, and any hypothetical moves against the PM. If Portsmouth, in particular, comes in early and is dire for the government, it certainly cuts off one potential challenger’s argument to succeed Sunak...

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Not the worst set of numbers for Street. Equally positive with Tory/Lab voters is pretty solid, and in an FPTP election, I'm sure the Reform numbers will be squeezed. Not to mention Parker underperforming Labour as a whole.

I'd still rather be Labour in this environment, but given the 2021 polling error in London, you'd need some real ego to rest on your laurels...

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New Savanta polling with Street narrowly ahead:

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Reform dropping 9% - either proving they’re a mirage, or the mother of all hedging from R&W, surely?

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From the livestream there are rumors of a Tory Wipeout in Portsmouth. Unsurprising given history and their remaining turf, but looks really bad for a certain rival who is seemingly preparing to challenge Sunak...

Yeah your predictions from earlier in the week (sorry, meant to reply but got majorly distracted by Edinburgh antics) are looking pretty prescient right now…

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who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

Fairly reliable. He was political editor for LBC (a national radio station), but stood down a year or two ago to concentrate on a family illness. Still chips in from time to time.

He's more reliable than most at the tabloids, but may be a little more laid back these days. 

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Hull City Council evacuated, just as counting got started.

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The Beeb may have put Kuenssberg in the chair, but they're still paying Wakeman for the rights to Arthur, so it all feels alright.

Heaton-Harris in for the Conservatives. Looks miserable, but that's a well-known side-effect of being Northern Ireland Secretary, so might not be too indicative...

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Reform in second place klaxon - discuss with maps.

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First gain of the night:
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786174130066235817

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what council is this? No such ward exists on the county council it seems.

Burbage ward on Leicestershire council.

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https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1786183248873152852

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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786183646665113878

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Nice visualisation of said-results:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786194761956692011

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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786202255789564262

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Laura K has seemingly made a lot of predictable remarks on the election night programme. I'm pretty sure I heard her say that Labour were making some gains but that it "wasn't particularly impressive".

Peak Laura K moment about an hour into the night when she declared “Labour have only picked up four councillors, that’s not *great*, is it?”

25 seats had declared. 

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Tory responses this morning as to why the election won’t be called for another six months appear to have devolved to “the beatings this parliament will continue until morale improves”.

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Houchen has won the Hartlepool division by 2,000 votes. Way down on his 13,000 majority there last time, but looks like he’s home and dry.

Tories got 35% in Hartlepool for the council elections - in the mayoral race, they won 53%

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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786348925034615269

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Tory collapse in Welwyn Hatfield - looks pretty dire for Grant Shapps.

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Labour claiming victory “comfortably” in the East Midlands mayoral race. Will be interested to see the breakdown, to see if there are any tealeaves to read about Bolsover, Mansfield and Bassetlaw…

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Driscoll has conceded in a chat with journalists. Reportedly he immediately pivoted to talking about running again in four years time.

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Bad year for Festus Akinbusoye. Loses Mid Beds to Labour in one of the Tories worst by-election results ever, and then loses his day-job as Bedfordshire PCC six months later. It’s unclear whether he’ll even get nominated for the new Mid-Beds seat.