IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[jamestroll]

It's way too early to say that Rauner is doomed.

I know we should wait before making predictions, but I'm 95% sure on this one.

No problem. The only ones I'm 98% sure of are MO-SEN and maybe WI-GOV.

IL-GOV actually strikes me the same as MO-SEN. Overconfidence by the opposing party could cause them to screw it up.

It is a shame that you can't handle a strong woman like Claire McCaskill.

[jamestroll]

IL continues to lose population faster than any other state, primarily due to outmigration to other states (over 500K net loss since 2010). The Gallup poll of 2013 identified that 50% of IL residents would move out if they could - the highest percent in the US. A similar poll this fall from the Paul Simon Pubic Policy Institute put the percentage who want to leave IL at 47%. This attitude was present under Quinn, and hasn't changed.

Rauner will say he has a plan to change that, but the Dems have blocked it. He does have a plan, and it is bold and far-reaching, and parts may not even work, but its a plan. His plan involves a lot of anti-union elements as well as curbs on legislative power. Those parts are toxic to a lot of the Dems. So far under Rauner the Dems have only proposed the same sorts of programs and spending they did under Quinn - ie no change as far as many voters are concerned. But the poll numbers say change is demanded, and for the first time in most people's memory the Pubs picked up legislative seats in a presidential year.

Who ever the Dems nominate for Gov is going to have to come to grips with the facts above. They don't have to espouse the Rauner agenda, but they can't rehash Quinn either if they plan to succeed. They are going to have to be as bold as Rauner and risk some pushback from key groups. But there are Dem models out there from MN to CA that a candidate could run on. So far, none have dared. That could cost them in 2018.

Rauner has been a disappointment to me, but I admit it is way to early to count him out. Especially for a gubernatorial bid. Illinois is a Midwestern state. Midwestern state= generally great chances of a swing. Two years ago, they elected Rauner. Less then two months ago, it was the minority of states that swung Democratic on the Presidential level.

What curbs on legislative power is Rauner wanting to run on? As far as anti-union legislation, is this for public sector unions or all unions? I dislike public sector unions as a rule.

On top of all that, why do you think half of Illinois residents want to move out? When I was visit Chicagoland it seemed like heaven on earth to me. I realize that being a tourist versus resident are two different things.

[jamestroll]

It is a shame that you can't handle a strong woman like Claire McCaskill.

Yeah, if she were a man, I'd definitely support her, just like I totally support Jon Tester and Bill Nelson for reelection. Oh wait.. (That being said, Ann Wagner and Susan Brooks would be great additions to the Senate. )

You are the one who brought it up initially.

I do not think Rauner is dead on arrival in 2018, yet. He is not Kirk and he is not running for US Senate.  I think Democrats can blow this one quite easily and there is not Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket winning by 15 to 20 points either.

But he would lose if the election was held today.

[jamestroll]

Illinois is only competitive down ballot due to incompetent dems.

I fear Rauner could well win.

[jamestroll]

History may be made..

JB Pritzker.. First Democrat to win DuPage County, IL in a very long time. If ever!

hahahahaahhaahhaah

I don't dislike Rauner and am personally neutral on this particular contest. However, I support Pritzker and hopes he wins huge to support my cause.

[jamestroll]

History may be made..

JB Pritzker.. First Democrat to win DuPage County, IL in a very long time. If ever!

hahahahaahhaahhaah

I don't dislike Rauner and am personally neutral on this particular contest. However, I support Pritzker and hopes he wins huge to support my cause.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=17043&f=1&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=17043&f=1&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2008&fips=17043&f=1&off=0&elect=0

I meant in a gubernatorial contest.

[jamestroll]

Oh how odd politics can be.

If the collar counties touching Cook County (Lake, Kane, McHenry, DuPage and Will) formed their own state prior to the 2014 gubernatorial election Pat Quinn would have defeated Rauner by a margin of 52,675 votes.

Reminders of two important facts.

1) Suburbanites can really screw Democrats if we do not bow to to them.
2) How elastic the  Midwest is.


Now JB Prizker may sweep all the collar counties except McHenry.

[jamestroll]

I know yard signs don't mean anything, but I was surprised to actually see a couple of McCann-Merreighn signs while driving through the 13th District this weekend.

Saw JB Pritzker, McCann and Webb for Senate sign in downstate Illinois in the 12th as I was driving yesterday!

[jamestroll]

Does anyone think this will actually be impactful?