I genuinely don’t understand how you can make an argument that Trump isn’t a significant favorite right now.
-He leads the RCP national average- something that he never did in 2016 and 2020.
-He significantly outperformed his final RCP polling average in both 2016 and 2020.
-A 1-2% Biden popular vote win still likely means a Trump Electoral College win.
-Trump leads polling averages in Wisconsin, Michigan, and a large lead in Nevada. Trump could lose PA, MI, and WI, and still win the election if he wins Nevada and the Nebraska district.
There’s no way one could objectively argue Biden is the favorite right now based on the data. No argument.
This assumes polls aren't overestimating Trump like they did for his lackeys in 2022.
I don't buy the argument that polls will underestimate Trump when they are showing him doing better than he probably could in reality.
They kind of did in 2018. Republicans did better in Senate races than they were expected to. It wasn't universal or as cut-and-dry as 2016 and 2020 were.
We'll see how 2024 develops, of course, but more and more over the years polling is looking like a less reliable metric overall.
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