MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Yes, the Hogan announcement scrambled the race.

If you told someone a year ago that the Maryland senate race would be more competitive than the Virginia race, they wouldn't have believed you. Now you have Hogan looking competitive for now, and absolutely no one thinks Virginia is competitive.

Relatively competitive. Virginia is just a wee bit darker a shade of safe blue.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Alsobrooks has a sizeable win I think there’s a good arguement that pollsters undersample urban blacks. The same thing happened in 2022 with Wes Moore was was polling around 20% but then won with 32%.

If this is true on a larger scale then that could be a good sign for Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania

I think this will end up being the case, simultaneously while Trump horrifically underperforms, and we get one day of discussion saying "okay, maybe Biden can still win," and then that conversation will be nullified by a poll taken at face value of Trump leading in Hawaii by 15 points or something.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The only downside to Trone's loss is that the race is now going to be sensationalized and overhyped by the DC #politico class cause they have front row seats. Just like what always happens in VA. In the end though it won't end up reflecting their takes cause the self-created bubble barely covers any actual voter opinions, especially those of lower-income minorities - as we just saw tonight.

After tonight, where Hogan isn't even doing that great in the primary, Alsobrooks may very well end up defying expectations again.

At best Hogan loses by 15, but I imagine it will be by much more than that in November. It'll be a waste of a horserace narrative.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

People will probably accuse you of "hopium" with this take, but as far as the rust belt trio goes, this might be why Biden seems to be holding up better in Wisconsin rather than the other two in polls even though one would think the Badger state would remain the most right-leaning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter. 

If it didn't matter at all, it would have shown up in the earlier polls that had Alsobrooks well behind him.