Applying Muon's numbers to 2004, we get:
Bush: 292
Kerry: 245.
Meaningless, but interesting.
Don't even need Ohio to win, anymore.
That is why Dems need to focus more on the regions that are actually growing. The more they try the Kerry strategy of focusing too hard on one state, the mroe lopsided future elections will be.
Because the election was so close, Kerry had to focus on a handful of states. Only a handful were in "play". It wouldn't make much sense for him to focus on fast growing states like Arizona and Texas, where Republicans had sizeable wins.
Ohio and Florida were his only real chances of winning.